Fix is in: When Home Court Advantage goes too far

kray28 · Joined: 09 May 2007 Posts: 4781 Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Currently in the second round, with four games played in each series, the home team has a record of 15-1.

This has taken the concept of home court advantage to a new level, and I believe it provides damning correlative evidence that the league is fixed to ensure that series are artificially lengthened for increased revenue.

I don't have a lot of footage to go on (outside of the travesties I've seen in Utah), but the rules seem to change drastically when the courts change in a playoff series. It isn't just explained by a change in player performance, but it is often explained by the refs working to get a player out of a game to give the other team an upper hand. If that doesn't work, then the refs go to the old standby....awarding freethrows on a selective basis to help teams maintain or pad leads...or in the opposite scenario allowing a team to comeback without using the clock.

The benefactors of this scam are many, and the ones who suffer (if you don't count the fans and the players) few.

Who benefits from a series being lengthened?

1. The NBA
2. The networks, who air the games
3. The owners, who collect additional ticket sales
4. The refs who collect extra paychecks for more games worked

Just some thoughts here....the 15-1 bit really stands out. Home court advantage is real without a doubt...bookies can even put a value on it, but it's not supposed to be this good.

Who knows what happens tomorrow, but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say that the home teams will prevail.
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Weezy · Joined: 03 Jun 2006 Posts: 20957 Location: Anaheim, CA

I actually believe that this is a product of what Legler said on Rome I believe it was. He said that there are no dominant teams in this playoffs, just a lot of good teams. We know that is true because the West was decided by a handful of games this year, so of course not one team is dominating another, it's VERY balanced. In the East Boston, Detroit and Orlando were all close, and Cleveland we know can hang with the good teams despite their record. I personally don't see it as a conspiracy, but that's just me. I think these teams are just really balanced and home court gives that extra edge to each one.
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Ramballa · Joined: 20 Nov 2007 Posts: 307 Location: Covina

lol if thats the case.. the nuggets series would of went 7 games then.. freak2

JShow34 · Joined: 03 Jul 2006 Posts: 1023 Location: Pittsburgh

I know a lot of people view this as complete bs but I do believe there is some validity to it.

The home team is just at such a decided advantage with the referees it's almost obvious. Winning on the road in the playoffs can only be done if you completely blow the home team out because you won't get the benifit of the doubt on any calls. It's one thing playing in a rowdy atmosphere where the players are comfortable with their own surroundings, it's another when the refs continue to blow whistles against you and conform to the style of play the home team plays.

The reason Jerry Sloan's Jazz are so bad on the road is because they push referees to the limit with their hard fouls and physical plays. On the road they don't get the calls but at home they get away with their rugged style. Same for the Spurs.

Officials just have too much a say in these basketball games. I don't get it why I watch college basketball and don't even notice the referees.

kray28 · Joined: 09 May 2007 Posts: 4781 Location: Pittsburgh, PA

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Basketball Fan · Joined: 20 Feb 2004 Posts: 5189

trodgers · Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:12 pm Post subject:

This is a good thread. I'm going to have something to say about it tomorrow. For now, I think the fix is absolutely in. I don't know who's responsible, but it's absurd.
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Chicano · Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject:

Definitely think there's somewhat of a fix. I think basically every team at home for the most part, will usually always get more of the benefit of the calls from the refs over the opposing road team. It took me a while, but I've been convinced to believe so now. Sometimes the disparity is greater, sometimes not as much, but one way or another, there is some kind of a fix I believe. HOPEfully, going into game 5 coming back home for our Lakers, we'll get the slight referee advantage in our favor once again & by the way, some people argue that the refereeing has nothing to do whatsoever with the outcome of the came, and it's no excuse at all, that's just ridiculous imo. Of course it affects the game in tons of ways. One thing it can do powerfully is shift the balance of momentum generally back to the home team's favor in an instance. The inconsistancy is absolutely absurd. Even James Worthy said the refereeing in the NBA is the worst by far than any other sport he's seen, & most of the general public would easily agree with that.
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strikemode14 · Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:47 am Post subject:

I don't think a fix is on..Granted i'll give you a few games may have been thrown..ala probaly spurs threw game 4 to get an extra home game.

However some of it is we have alot of young teams/weak minded teams.

Lakers, NOH, Magic are examples of young teams who play better at home then on the road.

The C's are a very...very weakminded squad. As far as I am concern if Bron plays even decent this is a sweep right now.
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kray28 · Joined: 09 May 2007 Posts: 4781 Location: Pittsburgh, PA

derrick · Joined: 20 Nov 2007 Posts: 197

thank you op for making this thread.

for a long time i didn't believe in the league doing things like this, but from what i've learned in business... you have to do things a little "questionable" to make $$.

the league hasn't had the greatest playoff ratings lately, but with the rise of the Celtics and Lakers this is the perfect opportunity to cash in. i see many series being stretched out this year... should be interesting to see.

halekulani · Joined: 14 Jul 2005 Posts: 5601

detroit told stern to f off and gave him the finger

so in retaliation, i'm sure stern has it so that no matter who detroit plays next round, they will lose the series.

kray28 · Joined: 09 May 2007 Posts: 4781 Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Mr. Chicken · Joined: 10 Dec 2006 Posts: 1867 Location: College

I don't know about a consipiracy, but the refs were horrible in Game 4 against our team. All the right calls went the Jazz's way. We got screwed over by some silly fouls. However, if we had made our stinkin' free throws we would've won the game.. so can't REALLY blame the refs for this one.
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kray28 · Joined: 09 May 2007 Posts: 4781 Location: Pittsburgh, PA

DJ Qube · Joined: 02 Mar 2005 Posts: 1955 Location: Torrance

slimjim · Joined: 31 May 2005 Posts: 7785

I think refs are influenced by the fan's reactions during the game. and not by ABC/ESPN/TNT wanting the series to go to 7, or by David stern.

we see a charge, and the crowd boos like crazy initially before the refs calls the play? the ref might be swayed and call it a blocking foul instead.

don't forget knowing your own arena, eating at home, spending time with the family, changing in your home change room, parking in your own spot, the routine... can't do anything but help.

while the opposing team gets the shaft.
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DJ Qube · Joined: 02 Mar 2005 Posts: 1955 Location: Torrance

trodgers · Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:56 pm Post subject:

Some good ideas in this thread trying to explain the phenomenon. I'm not officially backing off my suggestion that the fix is in and I don't think that the integrity of the game is seriously compromised even if a few games are called more in favor of the home team, for instance, but I want to say a few things.

1. When a coach makes a fuss about a player not getting calls or a player getting calls, it really SEEMS as if a lot of attention is paid to that in order to set things right.

Just some very anecdotal evidence:
Carlos Boozer in LA: 2 games, 61 minutes, 10 PFs. And if you watched the game and thought like I did, he probably committed more like 15 PFs in that time.
Carlos Boozer in Utah: 2 games, 84 minutes, 8 PFs.
Fouls per 48 mins in LA: 7.9
Fouls per 48 mins in Utah: 4.6
-The difference there is staggering. It's nearly 175% more calls in Utah.

Kobe Bryant in LA: 35 FTA (on 34 FGA) in 77 minutes.
Kobe Bryant in Utah: 27 FTA (on 53 FGA) in 88 minutes.
FTA / 48 Mins in LA: 21.8
FTA / 48 mins in Utah: 14.7
FTA / FGA in LA: 1.03
FTA / FGA in Utah: 0.51
FTA / non-threes in LA: 1.17
FTA / non-threes in Utah: .73
-So even correcting for the number of long shots he's taking, Kobe is still getting a lot more calls in LA. The difference is massive, ranging from about 125% more calls in LA to more than 200% more calls.

LA's FTA in LA: 89 in 2 games (96 mins)
LA's FTA in Utah: 62 in 2 games (101 minutes)
-That's .93 FTA/Min in LA and .61 FTA/Min in Utah
--That's a difference of about 150% more FTA in LA

Utah's FTA in LA: 46 in 2 games (96 mins)
Utah's FTA in Uta: 73 in 2 games (101 mins)
-That's .48 FTA/Min in LA and .72 FTA/Min in Utah
--That's a difference of 150% more FTA in Utah

Strange.

2. When a player complains during the game, if it's a big name player, he's more likely to get the calls in the future. If it's a lesser reputed player, he's less likely to get the calls. Now, in LA, Kobe was getting all the calls against anyone who guarded him because of his reputation (ostensibly). Gasol does NOT get the calls against Boozer and he doesn't even get them against Okur (at least in Utah); Gasol averaged 8 FT/G in LA and 1 FT/G in Utah. Deron didn't get him over Fisher in LA, but he got them in heaps against Fisher in Utah (Deron shot 3 FT/G in LA and 7 FT/G in Utah).
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Chicano · Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject:

DJ Qube & kray28, your posts are absolute money.
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kray28 · Joined: 09 May 2007 Posts: 4781 Location: Pittsburgh, PA

With two more games in the books (DET-ORL and SA-NOH), home teams are now 17-1 in the second round.

It's funny how the TNT crew keeps failing to see the big elephant in the room. The attribute the road woes to poor bench play. Yeah, that's the ticket, the full explanation of all the variance.
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blocks · Joined: 02 Apr 2006 Posts: 865 Location: The Bay, CA

I don't know about a conspiracy...but it is mighty strange...
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Chicano · Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:25 pm Post subject:

DJ Qube · Joined: 02 Mar 2005 Posts: 1955 Location: Torrance

clubsoto24 · Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:03 am Post subject: ...

Chicano · Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 8:51 am Post subject:

RushDelivery · Joined: 25 Mar 2004 Posts: 1100 Location: LA

I have to disagree with the conspiracy theory, just look at Game 3 where the Lakers had more free throws and less fouls than Utah. Free throws were LA: 37 Utah: 28, and fouls were LA: 23 Utah 28. I agree Game 4 was terrible in terms of all of the calls going Utah's way, but there's not a consistently clear bias for the home team in every playoff game during the second round.

I really feel it depends on the refs, some tend to favor the home team more than others, and it depends on how much the crowd and the coaches influence the officials. There is no order from Stern to lengthen the playoffs in order to make more money, he would never take such a huge risk when even the smallest shred of hard evidence supporting conspiracy (such as a ref coming out and admitting it) would severely damage the ratings and profits of the NBA as a whole. As for the ratings comparison, that's a chicken and egg question. Are the poor ratings for the Detroit and Orlando series due to the fact it ended quickly at 4-1, or did the poor ratings somehow cause the series to end early? I personally feel the ratings are a natural consequence of Detroit taking a commanding lead in the series and not vice versa.

The extreme homecourt advantage is also due to a lack of dominant teams this season, in the West LA and Utah are only seperated by 3 games while in the East Boston put together a good regular season record but this is their first playoffs together and I'm not surprised they're struggling to adapt to the different style of play.

In my opinion the Lakers lost the games at Utah due to their lack of defense and poor offensive execution and not due to bad calls. The Lakers had only 34 assists on about 48% shooting while Utah had 53 assists on 51% shooting in the two games at Utah. Easy baskets have been the difference, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same is true for the other second round series.
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Chicano · Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:01 am Post subject:

GinoDB · Joined: 03 Feb 2008 Posts: 1967

if there is a conspiracy,

1) no way will it benefit Utah (in the end)
2) it will ultimately benefit us

so if there is one (which i dont really believe) then it has to benefit us (maybe it will make our series longer but overall make us win)