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knm131
Joined: 07 Jul 2007
Posts: 4555
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 Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2008 10:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Critical Beatdown wrote: |
| knm131 wrote: |
Critical, I would think PowerGrizz is right here.
If you replace Derek Fisher with Jerry Stackhouse, the Lakers would still come out better in this game than if you replace Parker/Ford with Stackhouse.
In this particular example, it passes the eyeball test. |
Um, no it doesn't, and that doesn't make any sense, if you really believe that you don't know basketball bro, and I like you so I"m not saying that with malice. |
Is the eyeball test subjective? Or objective? |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 23255
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 8:30 am Post subject: |
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T-Mac was atrocious. He didn't defend, didn't score, didn't pass, didn't rebound.
I think that Battier, Alston, Scola, and Jackson had huge impact for Houston.
Lakers? Well, I'm not so sure who did well. You have to remember that this is boxscore to real game impact we're trying to draw...and while there is often correlation and even causation (points scored vs. allowed is nearly 100% accurate...consider a disqualification or forfeit), there is not a perfect measure. No one on the planet would have gotten off 33 shots at even 33% against Battier's D except for Kobe. His impact in this particular game was far superior to what the boxscore showed.
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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| trodgers wrote: |
T-Mac was atrocious. He didn't defend, didn't score, didn't pass, didn't rebound.
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And yet we lost 
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there is not a perfect measure.
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Right. I always say that numbers are a simplification of reality that allows us to cope with it.
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No one on the planet would have gotten off 33 shots at even 33% against Battier's D except for Kobe. His impact in this particular game was far superior to what the boxscore showed. |
Well, but then if he was well defended, shouldn't he had taken fewer shots and try to set up other teammates? |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: LAL@DAL (2008-03-18)
Visiting team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.540906
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.207494
Kobe Bryant 0.173885
Lamar Odom 0.169382
Sasha Vujacic 0.0710312
Jordan Farmar 0.0181853
Luke Walton -0.00848826
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -0.0186845
Ronny Turiaf -0.0591814
Derek Fisher -0.100316
Home team:mavericks. Chance of success: 0.459094
Dirk Nowitzki 0.229953
Jason Terry 0.223863
Erick Dampier 0.0815872
Devean George 0.0675823
Josh Howard 0.00198565
Malik Allen -0.0176681
Jason Kidd -0.0549446
Jerry Stackhouse -0.0639467
Brandon Bass -0.128294 |
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karacha
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 15692
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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Those numbers look good, except that your computer made a mistake with Luke. Or perhaps, if DJ had few more minutes, he'd be ranked better than Luke too.
Fisher was atrocious, that's obvious. Rad, Kobe, Odom, Sasha were all great.
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L4L
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 18 Jun 2007
Posts: 9103
Location: Trade Rumors Forum
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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IMHO, CL commonly exaggerates Luke's mistakes. He's clearly a whipping boy.
_________________
All-NBA Challenge Roster:
PG: Steve Nash, Stephon Marbury, Delonte West
SG: Ray Allen, Francisco Garcia, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Paul Pierce, Shane Battier, Ruben Patterson
PF: Kevin Garnett, Kurt Thomas, Andray Blatche
C: Kendrick Perkins, Joel Przybilla, Rasho Nesterovic |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| karacha wrote: |
Those numbers look good, except that your computer made a mistake with Luke. Or perhaps, if DJ had few more minutes, he'd be ranked better than Luke too.
Fisher was atrocious, that's obvious. Rad, Kobe, Odom, Sasha were all great. |
Sorry, I couldn't watch the game (this was another blind post). Why do you think Luke's number is wrong? Should it be higher or lower in your opinion? |
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karacha
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 15692
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject: |
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| L4L wrote: |
| IMHO, CL commonly exaggerates Luke's mistakes. He's clearly a whipping boy. |
Sure, but he is really horrible this season. We almost lost that game because of him. And when Phil finally puts Radman in, Vlad goes berserk on the Mavs and destroys them with the long-range artillery. Luke made some huge mistakes today. HUGE. He's the worst +/- player on the team. It's not the most important stat, but we've seen our lead melt with Luke in the game too many times this season. It's not amusing at all. It's horrible and annoying. If the guy is hurt and playing through pain - bench his [Swearing is not permitted at Clublakers. You must edit this post prior to submitting.] and play Radman/Kobe @ 3 more.
PowerGrizz - I was joking, because Luke really had pure showing tonight, and it is reflected in the numbers. But seriously, it would be even worse if DJ had a chance to play more minutes. He looked great on defense in the first half.
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Last edited by karacha on Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:54 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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L4L
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 18 Jun 2007
Posts: 9103
Location: Trade Rumors Forum
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:53 pm Post subject: |
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100% Agreed Karacha. Luke has been embarassingly bad. As his play worsens, so does the anti-Luke hysteria.
_________________
All-NBA Challenge Roster:
PG: Steve Nash, Stephon Marbury, Delonte West
SG: Ray Allen, Francisco Garcia, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Paul Pierce, Shane Battier, Ruben Patterson
PF: Kevin Garnett, Kurt Thomas, Andray Blatche
C: Kendrick Perkins, Joel Przybilla, Rasho Nesterovic |
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goatis24
Joined: 28 Dec 2006
Posts: 378
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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Rony Turiaf negative impact , its his defense early in the game that helped us gain such a big lead!  |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: |
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| L4L wrote: |
| 100% Agreed Karacha. Luke has been embarassingly bad. As his play worsens, so does the anti-Luke hysteria. |
The nice thing about Luke is that he won't be able to tell if fans are booing or chanting "Luuuuuuuke"  |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:49 pm Post subject: |
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| karacha wrote: |
PowerGrizz - I was joking, because Luke really had pure showing tonight, and it is reflected in the numbers. But seriously, it would be even worse if DJ had a chance to play more minutes. He looked great on defense in the first half. |
Sorry, stupid question (relatively new fan here)... who is DJ? Are you talking about MBenga? Is J his middle initial? |
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MDI
Joined: 13 Jan 2008
Posts: 5932
Location: On the dance floor with Megan
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:55 pm Post subject: |
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powergrizz anyway you can somehow statistically show the impact of Phil Jackson?
LOL
we almost lost the game because of his horrible coaching down the stretch tonight
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 23255
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:35 am Post subject: |
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| PowerGriz wrote: |
| trodgers wrote: |
T-Mac was atrocious. He didn't defend, didn't score, didn't pass, didn't rebound.
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And yet we lost
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there is not a perfect measure.
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Right. I always say that numbers are a simplification of reality that allows us to cope with it.
| Quote: |
No one on the planet would have gotten off 33 shots at even 33% against Battier's D except for Kobe. His impact in this particular game was far superior to what the boxscore showed. |
Well, but then if he was well defended, shouldn't he had taken fewer shots and try to set up other teammates? |
Depends what you mean. Only two other guys on the team were shooting a decent percentage and the team shot poorly as a group. I'd rather see Kobe try to draw contact than dishing to someone who has zero confidence and is not hitting his shots.
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Props to BDG for the Imago. |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 23255
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:37 am Post subject: |
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| goatis24 wrote: |
| Rony Turiaf negative impact , its his defense early in the game that helped us gain such a big lead! |
Absolutely agree. He played a very good game. You have to remember, though, that this stat looks at the boxscore. So forget that Turiaf was fouled all the time and didn't get calls, but was called for a couple of BS calls. His actual performance was very, very good, but I can see how looking at a boxscore his performance looks less impressive.
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Props to BDG for the Imago. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: |
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| trodgers wrote: |
Depends what you mean. Only two other guys on the team were shooting a decent percentage and the team shot poorly as a group. I'd rather see Kobe try to draw contact than dishing to someone who has zero confidence and is not hitting his shots. |
Actually, the method takes into account how teammates are shooting. If your FG% is low and your teammates are shooting well that gives you a more negative impact than if your teammates are shooting poorly. Here is how it works. If John Dow takes fewer shots than the player we're analyzing it means that with John Doe there are possessions that become available for other teammates. Those possessions are distributed by proportionally increasing the shots taken by every other player. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: |
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| trodgers wrote: |
| goatis24 wrote: |
| Rony Turiaf negative impact , its his defense early in the game that helped us gain such a big lead! |
Absolutely agree. He played a very good game. You have to remember, though, that this stat looks at the boxscore. So forget that Turiaf was fouled all the time and didn't get calls, but was called for a couple of BS calls. His actual performance was very, very good, but I can see how looking at a boxscore his performance looks less impressive. |
Yes, this can happen. Defense is taken into account on a season-average basis but the method is blind to a particularly good defensive performance on a given night. However, if you look at a large statistical sample, say you look at the season average of a player's performance, then defense is reasonably well factored in. |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 23255
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| PowerGriz wrote: |
| trodgers wrote: |
Depends what you mean. Only two other guys on the team were shooting a decent percentage and the team shot poorly as a group. I'd rather see Kobe try to draw contact than dishing to someone who has zero confidence and is not hitting his shots. |
Actually, the method takes into account how teammates are shooting. If your FG% is low and your teammates are shooting well that gives you a more negative impact than if your teammates are shooting poorly. Here is how it works. If John Dow takes fewer shots than the player we're analyzing it means that with John Doe there are possessions that become available for other teammates. Those possessions are distributed by proportionally increasing the shots taken by every other player. |
If that's true, then I really don't understand why your system gave Kobe those numbers. The explanation you offered doesn't seem to cover what in fact happened in the game.
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Props to BDG for the Imago. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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| trodgers wrote: |
| PowerGriz wrote: |
| trodgers wrote: |
Depends what you mean. Only two other guys on the team were shooting a decent percentage and the team shot poorly as a group. I'd rather see Kobe try to draw contact than dishing to someone who has zero confidence and is not hitting his shots. |
Actually, the method takes into account how teammates are shooting. If your FG% is low and your teammates are shooting well that gives you a more negative impact than if your teammates are shooting poorly. Here is how it works. If John Dow takes fewer shots than the player we're analyzing it means that with John Doe there are possessions that become available for other teammates. Those possessions are distributed by proportionally increasing the shots taken by every other player. |
If that's true, then I really don't understand why your system gave Kobe those numbers. The explanation you offered doesn't seem to cover what in fact happened in the game. |
Sorry, I didn't watch the game so I can't really give you an explanation. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Ok, sorry, I realize now that you are talking about the Houston game. Well, without going into the code to look exactly at how each ranking was given, I'd say that in 43 minutes of play Kobe had a low FG%, committed 3 TO and didn't grab any offensive rebounds. His boxscore stats were not good in this game so it's not surprising that he's ranked low. |
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sleepin4matty
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 862
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| PowerGriz wrote: |
| karacha wrote: |
PowerGrizz - I was joking, because Luke really had pure showing tonight, and it is reflected in the numbers. But seriously, it would be even worse if DJ had a chance to play more minutes. He looked great on defense in the first half. |
Sorry, stupid question (relatively new fan here)... who is DJ? Are you talking about MBenga? Is J his middle initial? |
Yes it is Mbenga. It was discussed during the Dallas game last night. His name is Didier or whatever but Cuban couldn't pronounce it properly so he was calling him DJ. Mbenga couldn't bring himself to correct the owner of the team (his boss) so DJ just stuck because he liked it. Thanks for the stats they've been awesome. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:11 pm Post subject: |
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| sleepin4matty wrote: |
Yes it is Mbenga. It was discussed during the Dallas game last night. His name is Didier or whatever but Cuban couldn't pronounce it properly so he was calling him DJ. Mbenga couldn't bring himself to correct the owner of the team (his boss) so DJ just stuck because he liked it.
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LOL!! 
That's a great story :)
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Thanks for the stats they've been awesome. |
Thanks |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:03 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: SEA@LAL (2008-03-21)
Visiting team:sonics. Chance of success: 0.00000
Donyell Marshall 0.0257485
Earl Watson 0.0177364
Kevin Durant 0.0171249
Luke Ridnour 0.00925648
Mouhamed Sene 0.00674157
Ira Newble 0.00209063
Nick Collison -0.00462713
Adrian Griffin -0.00622852
Jeff Green -0.00641192
Damien Wilkins -0.0183664
Johan Petro -0.0235144
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 1.00000
Lamar Odom 0.0628507
Ronny Turiaf 0.0383915
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.0324710
Kobe Bryant 0.0320698
Jordan Farmar 0.0309269
Luke Walton 0.0294565
Sasha Vujacic 0.0200740
Coby Karl 0.0140121
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.00596134
Derek Fisher -0.00126147 |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 23255
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 5:04 am Post subject: |
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Poor Sonics.
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Props to BDG for the Imago. |
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karacha
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 15692
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| Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: |
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| PowerGriz wrote: |
The PowerGriz numbers: SEA@LAL (2008-03-21)
Visiting team:sonics. Chance of success: 0.00000
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 1.00000
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Ouch man.
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 7:17 am Post subject: |
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Being also a Grizzlies fan I've seen the 1.0000 vs 0.0000 chance a few times already this season
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: GSW@LAL (2008-03-23)
Visiting team:warriors. Chance of success: 0.620875
Stephen Jackson 0.197872
Monta Ellis 0.170193
Andris Biedrins 0.139575
Brandan Wright 0.115934
Kelenna Azubuike 0.0262663
Al Harrington -0.00651635
Matt Barnes -0.0413602
Baron Davis -0.159758
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.379125
Kobe Bryant 0.200433
Derek Fisher 0.161288
Lamar Odom 0.0381547
Luke Walton 0.00969534
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.00798574
Ronny Turiaf 0.00455094
Jordan Farmar -0.00603375
Sasha Vujacic -0.0266426 |
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MDI
Joined: 13 Jan 2008
Posts: 5932
Location: On the dance floor with Megan
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| Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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| MDI wrote: |
powergrizz anyway you can somehow statistically show the impact of Phil Jackson?
LOL
we almost lost the game because of his horrible coaching down the stretch tonight |
and we did
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MDI's Mamacitas
1) Marisa Miller
2) Jessica Burciaga
3) Leeann Tweeden
4) Galilea Montijo
5) Bianca Gascoigne
6) Shandi Finessey
7) Torrie Wilson
8) Sophia Bush
9) Nicole Peterson
10) Alena Seradova |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 23255
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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Again I think Turiaf's contributions really don't show up that well according to this stat, but it's very interesting. Kobe was dominant.
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Props to BDG for the Imago. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:30 am Post subject: |
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| trodgers wrote: |
| Again I think Turiaf's contributions really don't show up that well according to this stat, but it's very interesting. Kobe was dominant. |
Maybe he's not the kind of guy whose contribution shows well in the statline. Still, I did watch parts of the game and I saw him miss badly some pretty easy layups. Are you sure you are looking at him objectively? |
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