ATL West Final - Rio de Janeiro @ Oakland (game plans up)

[Sky]

Rio travels to the Oracle to learn their fate as the western conference finals pit Sky's Rio de Janeiro Blues against TIME's Oakland Warriors. The Warriors, the west's unanimous #1, make the call on game rules, due Saturday.

[Sky]

+ - Wanded to 100% health.


Note - Dave Bing shoots .350 from 3.

[TIME]

Congrats Sky.

I've got mixed feelings. On one hand I like the challenge, but on the other I'm really not thrilled to be coaching against you.


Oakland calls Old School rules and keeps the same 5 starters.
_________________
"Better learn not to talk to me," Bryant said of Smith's jabbering. "You shake the tree, a leopard's gonna fall out."

[Sky]

Best of luck TIME.

1 Baron Davis
2 Gus Williams
3 James Worthy
4 Tim Duncan
5 Patrick Ewing

[Critter]

Good luck, it should be an exciting west final.
_________________

[TIME]

Oakland gameplan is in. Good luck Sky.

This has been another amazingly fun game this season. Thanks to you, jamas and Cleva for helping out, and all the judges.


_________________
"Better learn not to talk to me," Bryant said of Smith's jabbering. "You shake the tree, a leopard's gonna fall out."

[Sky]

Best of luck TIME. Yeah it has been a lot of fun this year. Thnaks for the props, team effort by all of us, players and judges alike.

Without further ado here we go on game plans.

[Sky]

Rio de Janeiro game plan vs. Oakland

INTRODUCTION – Warriors scouting report

The Warriors are a dream team of individual legends, the question is if they optimize one another or cancel each other out.

Wilt Chamberlain
50 points per game was absolutely sick, but keep a few things in mind:

1. The lane was only 12 feet wide. It wasn’t expanded to the current 16 feet until 1964 http://www.nba.com/analysis/rules_history.html
33% wider lane is pretty significant. Imagine Shaq with a 12-foot lane and a 6-8 white stiff on him and you’ve got Wilt in 1961-62.

2. Wilt needed a ton of minutes and touches to get to 50 points. 48.5 minutes (he’s averaging 40 minutes in the ATL), with 40 fg attempts and 17 ft attempts. So figure Wilt shoots 40 times, got fouled on 10 more shots, that’s 50 touches for 50 points. Point per touch.

3. The modern game pace is 81 shots and 28 free throws a night. That was the average for the top 10 scoring teams last year. So check TIME’s game plan, if Wilt has 30% of the offense on the post that’s 24 touches. 24 touches = 24 points.

4. The rest of the team now has to divide up 57 shots (81 shots less Wilt’s 24). Barry took 28 shots a game, Malone 19, Wade 19, Kidd 14. Even if Kidd dials it back to 9 shots, figure the bench has 15 shots, that means Barry, Malone and Wade have to share 33 shots when they normally take 66. Barry, Malone and Wade are all volume shooters; they need touches to find a rhythm. If their touches are erratic their shot will be too

5. This is Wilt in just his third year in the league, he’s not dominant in fg% yet and he’s not a passer. In 1961-62 he shoots .504 from the floor and only has 2.4 assists despite 50 touches a night. If TIME says Wilt will pass out of the double to the open man call him on it. Wilt only did that 5% of the time. 2.4 assists on 50 touches. 4.8%.

The Supporting Cast

Karl Malone – His boards drop significantly playing next to Wilt. Malone’s pick and roll bread and butter is far less effective with Kidd (39% on all shots) and Wade (39% on jump shots) since they can’t hit the water from a rowboat.

Dwayne Wade –In 05-06 Wade shot a fugly efg of .393 on jump shots (15 feet and out), .375 in crunch time jump shots (under 5 minutes, game within 5). Even uglier from behind the arc .171.
Season: http://www.82games.com/0506/05MIA4A.HTM
Crunch time: http://www.82games.com/0506/05MIA4E.HTM

TIME has mentioned that Wade shot well in the playoffs in his selected year. It’s judge’s discretion on what stats to include in the evaluation, you can ignore the playoffs, mix it in with the season, factor in who was clutch or stepped it up in the playoffs, your call, but if you turn Wade into a shooter due to the playoffs then you have to apply the playoffs to everyone else.

Playoffs – Oakland
Chamberlain 35 points per game, .467 fg%, big drops in each
Kidd .189 from 3
Malone .435 fg%
Bing .410 fg%

Playoffs – Rio
Baron .514 fg%, .556 efg on jump shots, .373 from 3, 2.9 steals
Gus Williams 8.1 assists per game
Duncan 4.3 blocks
Kenny Smith and Raja Bell both over 44% from 3

Make Wade a shooter due to the playoffs and Baron becomes a monster while Wilt drops off a cliff.

Rick Barry – 1975 was a dream role for him, conscience-free volume shooting as he outscores the #2 and #3 scorers on the team combined by nearly 4 points. Barry averages 31 points, but on 28 fg attempts. He’ll only get half those touches on this team and will be an erratic shooter as a result.

While he had big steal numbers Barry excelled at steals as a late doubler, blindside in traps, or jumping the passing lanes, all part of Attles’ D schemes. Not many of Barry’s steals were in the man up ice situations he’ll face in this game.

Ason Kidd – Great passer, no J whatsoever. 39% from the floor, that’s jumpers, layups, dunks, putbacks, everything but 3’s. 39%? Ouch.

We plan on daring Kidd to shoot from midrange, plays to their weakness, takes needed touches away from the volume shooters and it’s less shots for Wilt. Defensively Wilt has to stay home on Ewing, which opens the hoop for Rio to finish with speed at the basket, particularly in attacking Barry and Jones with James Worthy and the secret weapon saved for this game alone.

1. MINUTES
1) Baron Davis 35, Gus Williams 13
2) Gus Williams 20, Raja Bell 10, Andre Iguodala 10, Dale Ellis 8
3) James Worthy 30, Richard Dumas 18
4) Tim Duncan 40, Robert Horry 8
5) Patrick Ewing 40, Raef LaFrentz 8
Otis Thorpe – as needed if foul trouble hits

Inactive: Kenny Smith, Shane Battier, James Posey

2. SETS
Offense:
UCLA high post 33%
Spread ice 25%
Baron post-up 25% (or as many minutes as Bing plays)
Speed unit fullcourt 17%

Defense:
Man 53%
Double Wilt 30% (or higher if they go to him more)
Speed unit fullcourt 17%

3. OFFENSE
We will bring both Duncan and Ewing above the ft line, forcing Wilt away from the hoop to then set up the speed mismatch at 3. Oakland has no one on their roster that can defend Worthy or Dumas man up. Barry and Jones can’t, Malone and Kemp can’t, too slow. If the Warriors bring double help from a guard Worthy passes over them and Baron or Gus cuts to the hoop, both are great finishers. With Wilt forced away from the basket Oakland has no way to stop the Rio 3, Wilt can’t go from weak side elbow to strong side baseline in time to stop Worthy. If Wilt leaves early Worthy passes to Ewing for uncontested midrange jumpers.

1. Thunder. 3 is our go to scorer in this game, starting with Worthy. If Barry is defending him then Worthy is in isolation, face up baseline for penetration or the J. Ewing and Duncan are both lifted to the elbow to prevent help from Wilt and Malone. Barry had the steals, but as noted in the intro, within the D schemes off the ball. Man up on an island Barry is the main course at the luau.

When Bobby Jones is defending then Worthy goes to work back to the basket low block and backs him down for post moves and passing to Duncan cutting from the elbow. Same thing James did in game 7 of ’88 against Dantley. 36 points, 16 rebounds, 10 assists, 1 finals MVP.

2. Lightning. The secret weapon finally gets to kick it into hyperdrive. Richard Dumas was a one-year wonder but in that year he was the league’s fastest 3 with monster hops, great finisher. In the ’93 finals he scored 15.7 per on 57% shooting while defended by Scottie Pippen in his prime. If he does that to Pippen, what does he do to Barry and Jones? Btw Dumas had very similar numbers regular season.

We’ll set up Dumas with screens from the bigs at the ft line as he makes UCLA cuts (rub off the high screen and cut).

We’ll also use Dumas in a 3-man weave with Baron/Gus and Duncan. Dumas will set up for alley oop slams, and baseline/sideline screens from Duncan. All of this is broken down in the diagram and video section.

3. Speed Unit. When Wilt sits for 4 minutes in each half, the Rio speed unit takes the floor. Baron, Gus, Dumas, Horry and LaFrentz. Goal is simple. All out pressure man and in the passing lanes for steals at 1, 2 and 3. Baron is #2 all-time in playoff steals. Gus was the NBA record holder in his day with 10 steals in a game. Both Kidd and Wade are high turnover guards.

The dual point guards run transition and create off the dribble, Dumas fills wing, Horry spots for 3’s and Raef is the trailer at the arc at .389. If the Oakland bigs go to the arc, the guards and Dumas are free to finish. If the bigs stay home, Horry and Raef drain 3’s over much smaller players. 4 minute blitz, quick strike of steals, layups and 3’s. Should spark a run.

4. UCLA High Post. We’ll use this to feature the elbow shooting of the bigs, set up Dumas to finish, utilize Duncan’s passing and midrange game and the HOF skill of Gus Williams in rubbing off screens. Variations explained in the diagrams.

5. Post-Its. When Dave Bing is in the game, so is Baron so is Iggy. Whoever Bing guards posts him up. Bing is giving up 40 pounds and 4 inches to Baron, who is just as quick. Iguodala also has a size, speed and power advantage over Bing. The bigs are at the elbows. Anyone helps Bing then Baron/iggy looks for Duncan cutting down to the midpost, Worthy/Dumas baseline or back door cut.

If/Then
Thunder/Lightning - If Oakland mixes matchups to stop Worthy, such as Malone or Kemp defending him to deny the backdown game, then James takes the ball out wider and works Malone face up off the dribble. Meanwhile Dumas reports to the scorer’s table immediately and comes in for Worthy. Offense all comes up UCLA high post and then we set up Dumas on an island against Malone/Kemp with high screens or a 3-man game. Speed kills. Slam, slam, 360 slam, slam. No more Oakland 4’s defending at 3.

If they bring Kidd or Wade to help defend or double at 3 then Baron or Gus cuts immediately to the hoop and Worthy passes over the defense to hit the cutter. If they put Wilt on the 3 then Ewing cuts to Worthy for spot up elbow, baseline and midrange. Worthy can also take the ball out wider to bring Wilt wide, then Gus comes to Worthy as an outlet and he passes to cutters inside and midrange.

Speed Unit - If Wilt doesn’t sit in this game and plays the full 48 then we still use the speed unit, but for 2 minutes instead of 4, and use it near the end of the first half and the end of the third.

Vs. specific defenses – If they trap Baron he feeds Gus to run the team and vice versa, dual initiators.

4. DEFENSE
Kidd and Wade can’t shoot from midrange out, we will play way off Kidd and dare him to shoot. The last thing Oakland wants is a 39% shooter taking shots on a team with Wilt inside and volume shooters that must have touches to find their range.

1. Kidd and Wade. We will play off them to deny penetration and concede the jumper from 17 feet or further. Brick away guys. They bring in Bing to get a shooter instead Baron punks him in post-up and forces him back to the bench. Baron and Gus/Iggy/Raja have the comfort of knowing neither Kidd nor Wade can hit the water from a rowboat on the perimeter. Both have to penetrate to score, and that predictability makes them much easier to defend, particularly when you have the speed to stay in front of them. Wade in old school rules isn’t parading to the line, Baron will defend him, with Gus playing the passing lanes off Kidd.

If TIME argues Wade hit playoffs I’ll refer you back to the intro and the playoff numbers for other Warriors. Wilt 35 ppg .467 fg%, Kidd under 20% from 3, Bing 41% floor, Malone 43% floor.

2. Wilt. If Oakland lifts everybody to put Wilt in isolation against Ewing we’ll live with the man up. Instead of a 12-foot lane and a slow unathletic 6-8 defender on him, this time Wilt has a quick, strong 27-year old Patrick Ewing on him with four swats per game. And Wilt has to set up wider due to the 16-foot lane. If he had a point per touch with a 12-foot lane and a 6-8 stiff defending, he’ll get less against a 16-foot lane and Ewing. In addition, the more touches Wilt gets, the worse his teammates shoot. Volume shooters need their touches, especially Barry.

In the halfcourt set, we will double Wilt on the pass. The Rio 1 and 2 both play their man to penetrate and deny the passing lane and penetration. If Oakland passes into Wilt on the post the 1 or 2 comes down to double on the pass. Baron and Gus, both high volume steal players, will be looking to get the blindside steal. This will eventually force Wilt to hold the ball high and think about the double, slowing him down for solo moves against Ewing and taking him out of his comfort zone. Second half we will double with larger players (Bell, Iguodala) to give Wilt a different look.

After going for the steal the guard locks his knees with Ewing and denies while looking for his man to cut. If an Oakland guard cuts we abandon the double and Baron/Gus picks up their man as a cutter in penetration. The Rio guard can pull up or spot up if he wants, but he won’t be allowed to finish and in old school rules Wade isn’t living at the line.

3. Stay on Malone in pick and roll. Duncan’s main defensive assignment is to flash the ballhandler and quickly recover back to Malone. Goal is to make the dribbler hesitate and deny quick penetration, then maintain an angle preventing the pass to Malone as Tim recovers back man. No big is better at recovery than Duncan, 10-time all-D for a reason.

To avoid predictability Duncan will make a hard show now and then, but 80% of the time it’s flash and recover. Defender on the ballhandler will go under the screen and then wide of Duncan to be in position to deny penetration and funnel his man wide. We’ll live with the quick jumper above the screen from the bricklaying guards or volume shooting 28 fga’s for 31 points Barry. We are denying the pass to Malone and Duncan is on him like Karl’s cheap suit from draft day. Stockton to Malone pick and roll worked because Stockton could shoot from 18 to 22 feet. Kidd can’t, Wade can’t, without enough touches Barry can’t.

4. Transition defense. When Oakland rebounds or inbounds and has a man streaking for a long outlet in transition, Baron, Gus, Iggy and Worthy/Dumas will overplay the passing lanes looking for interceptions. All are long and quick with high steals. The guards are above the arc in most of the offensive sets and one can play safety reading their man looking for the interception. Whoever is highest of Duncan or Ewing (both are at the elbow most of the game) has the responsibility to head back to protect the hoop. With the passing lanes jumped Oakland won’t be able to make the long outlet, and therefore a big and a guard get back, with the other guard already at the ballhandler. No transition layups for the Warriors.

5. The rest. Worthy and Dumas will play man up D. If Oakland goes with a 4 at 3 (Malone or Kemp) Worthy has the size to defend them effectively. If Oakland puts in Westphal to have a reliable midrange shooter on the floor then we don’t double on Wilt and Baron switches to him and picks him for steals.

If/Then

1. Kidd/Wade – If judges want to turn Wade into a reliable shooter due to playoffs then they have to convert Wilt to his playoff form, and Kidd, Bing and Malone. The Rio defense would adjust accordingly, Wilt would no longer need to be doubled as he drops to 35/.467. Malone is a far less reliable threat, Bing is a liability at just 41% from the floor, Kidd can’t hit a thing from 3.

2. Wilt – As Chamberlain adjusts to the blindside steals from the guards, we double with larger guards in the second half, occasionally Worthy and Dumas. If Wilt is tearing the double apart then Worthy will switch to Duncan’s man and Tim will start doubling with Ewing. Don’t think that will be necessary. Our goal with the double is to freeze Wilt, he wasn’t a good passer at this point, all he can do is pass it back out of trouble, can’t pass to cutters for the score. 2.4 assists on 50 touches.

3. Malone – Even if the guards are hitting the shot above the pick we will live with it. Duncan remains epoxied to Malone.

5. The rest – If Malone or Kemp is at 3 and Dumas is in the game he starts going for steals aggressively, should be able to pick both. If that fails we put Horry in at 3 for the 3 threat and size to man up on the other end.

5. DIAGRAMS AND VIDEOS

Passes are in white, player movement in blue.

Offense

1. UCLA high post



Baron passes to Dumas who passes to Gus. Dumas sets up his man into the screen from Ewing and rubs off it (called a UCLA cut). What makes this work is the speed of Dumas and having a 7 apg point in Gus on the wing who can create off the dribble to make the pass to the cutter.



If Wilt switches to deny Dumas then Ewing cuts to the elbow, gets the pass from Gus, and shoots over Barry for the money midrange jumper.



If the pass to Ewing is denied, then Dumas gets a screen from Duncan and swings to the weak side baseline. As that happens Gus reverses the ball to Baron, who then gets it to Dumas. Dumas should be open for the baseline jumper. If not he has Duncan low block and they can play a two-man game of kick out to Dumas, pivot and go for Duncan, or a baseline screen for Dumas to finish at the hoop.

All of these UCLA plays are interchangeable. Baron, Gus, Worthy, Iggy and Dumas can all serve as cutter or wing passer. Ewing and Duncan can play either big role. Gus in particular was very skilled at UCLA cuts and losing his man.

2. Spread ice

We run this differently from past games. Before Ewing was baseline, now he’s lifted to the elbow weak side, with Duncan ft line extended strong side.



Worthy at 3 has the ball in ice. He can go past his man face up, pull up for the jumper, or back his man down. Note that Ewing at 5 is wide and above the weak side elbow. Wilt has no chance of getting to Worthy at the hoop in time. If anyone comes to help double Worthy his man cuts. Kidd leaves to double, Baron cuts.

If Oakland stays home man up, a big screens and the guard makes a UCLA cut. 1 and 4 are paired up, 2 and 5 are paired up. Either one can make the cut. Getting the ball to a perpendicular cutter is the easiest pass to make to a cutter, Worthy is a very capable passer and has height on his man, should be effective.

3. 3-man alley oop slam



Dumas makes a UCLA cut off a pick from Duncan. The defensive 3 has two choices, play behind his man and get lit up solo, or try to front and deny the pass. If he does the latter the alley oop is there for the taking, and Baron is sharp at making that pass. Dumas will sky for the ball and hammer it down. See the video for how it works live.

http://videosearch2.nba.com/search/?sp_a=sp10038c44&sp_t=video&sp_q=Gerald%20Wallace&sp_n=6&sp_p=phrase&sp_s=postdate&sp_k=wmvasf

Defense

1. Wilt double and recover



Note how far the 1 is playing off Kidd, and that he is between Wilt and the ball, not the hoop and the ball. Our guards will be instructed to line up with Wilt and not worry about the hoop. If their man goes to dribble penetration they have plenty of space to react to it.

As the pass goes in Baron doubles blindside going for the steal first. Then he comes around at an angle to deny high and be in position to pick up his man as a cutter.


2. Duncan flash and recover vs. pick and roll.




Spaghetti but hopefully you get the idea. Malone picks for Wade. Duncan (X4) flashes above the screen, his only goal is to get the guard to hesitate and not go full speed around the pick. That gives Baron (X2) time as he goes under the pick to intercept Wade at the elbow. After flashing, Duncan recovers back on Malone, always in position to deny the passing angle.

Wade is free to pull up and shoot top of the key after Duncan flashes, but we’ll gladly live with that brick if it means we deny the pass to Malone and deny Wade penetration by meeting him at the elbow.


6. CLOSING
At 8 minutes Dale Ellis comes in at 3 and we run him through a picket fence of downscreens and a baseline screen to fire away from 3. Goal being to make Barry chase and wear his legs down for closing. If Barry is out of the game then Ellis works an inside-out game with Duncan on the low block.

Offense - To close it’s Worthy in spread ice, Duncan low block, and Raja at 2 as a 3 threat. Worthy and Duncan take the majority of the final looks unless Raja is left open on the arc. Duncan is not a liability late as in this season he is 80% from the line.

Defense - Ewing focuses on denying Wilt the glass, figuring the Warriors will not be looking for Wilt late given his ft shooting woes. We will look to front Barry with a rested Worthy and deny the pass to Barry as well as challenge his passes out. Raja will be on Wade giving him a different look, also an all-D player doesn’t; get whistled for touch fouls and Wade won’t get to the line. Baron will shade Kidd to deny interior penetration and funnel him wide, not extending past 17 feet. Duncan will stay tight on Malone.

7. IN CASE OF EMERGENCY
Foul trouble should not be a concern under old school rules. This roster is deep at 1, 2 and 3 and can weather a foul storm. Duncan and Ewing sit when Wilt does.

8. CRYSTAL BALL
I think we’ll see:
1. A focus on Wilt down low in ice and halfcourt. We take advantage of Wade and Kidd’s inability to shoot to double down on the pass to Wilt, and Ewing is a solid man defender.

2. Talk that with a focus on Wilt and Malone we won’t have a shotblocker to protect the hoop. Again since Wade and Kidd can’t shoot we can play then heavily for penetration and dare them to shoot. If TIME brings up Wade in the playoffs you know the drill, Wilt crashes and burns, so does Kidd from 3, Bing period, Malone, etc.

3. Plenty of pick and roll. But it can’t work since the guards can’t shoot.

4. Maybe talk of a running game or dominating glass. Running game won’t work given our offensive sets, have the bigs above the ft line and one guard above the arc. Rebounding he’ll do well, but you can’t just add the stats up. What Wilt gets Malone and Kidd don’t.

WHY WE WIN
On offense –
1. Worthy and Dumas can’t be defended by Barry and Jones. Worthy is too quick and powerful for both and Dumas is way too fast. If Oakland turns to Malone or Kemp then Dumas blows by them. Oakland doubles we have the passing skills with dual point guards and fast cutter/finishers to get easy looks. Wilt can’t help, Worthy isolation is wide strong side off the baseline and Wilt is on Ewing weak side elbow. Both 3’s have limited minutes and can play at a high tempo all game. There’s nothing the Warriors can do to stop ithem

2. The UCLA high post set reflects the balance of a team that can score from anywhere. The speed unit will create turnovers from Kidd at 3.5 to’s per game and Wade at 3.6 and has a wealth of finishers that are great in transition.

On defense –
We double Wilt, take full advantage of Kidd and Wade not being able to shoot, take away transition and deny Malone the ball in pick and roll. The Warriors strengths are caged and their weaknesses exposed.

Wilt has to fight to get his, Malone can’t get untracked with Duncan able to stay on him in pick and roll since the guards can’t shoot, Barry doesn’t see the ball enough, Kidd has no jump shot and we play off him to get steals in the passing lanes and deny penetration, Wade is looking at old school rules and 4 different defenders.

Bottom line: On defense Oakland can’t stop us at 3 and on offense they can’t get a second player rolling besides Wilt.

[Sky]

2007 ATL PLAYOFFS: WCF – Oakland Warriors Game Plan

Introduction: Rio Scouting Report

Rio arrives in Oakland with the best team the Warriors have faced in the playoffs. They are a solid team at every position with no glaring holes available for an easy exploit. Rio is a very good team, but their greatest strength is on their bench, not on the floor. Rio has the best coach in the ATL designing their gameplan. I will readily acknowledge that Sky will most likely out coach me. If we brought teams of equal talent to the floor, Rio would probably advance to the Finals.

However, Rio and Oakland are not equal in talent. I am not going to need to out coach Sky, because my players are going to out play his players. These two quotes from John Wooden emphasize the real key to this game.

"No matter how you total success in the coaching profession, it all comes down to a single factor -- talent. There may be a hundred great coaches of whom you never have heard in basketball, football, or any sport who will probably never receive the acclaim they deserve simply because they have not been blessed with the talent. Although not every coach can win consistently with talent, no coach can win without it."

“…no coach can win consistently without talent. Whoever the coach might be, if he doesn't have the right talent, no amount of skill in the world will produce the desired results."

I can confidently assert that the Oakland roster is the most talented team in this matchup with Rio. Our talent advantage will show up in the front court, the back court and the bench.

Front Court Matchup
Where will the talent matter most in this game? The game will come down to which front court is able to impose its will on the other. Both teams have playoff quality backcourts, but the big boys will decide this game. Rio boasts one of the stronger starting front courts in the ATL. Oakland is better.

Rio’s frontcourt strengths are Tim Duncan, James Worthy, and Patrick Ewing in that order. Duncan is in my opinion the best Power Forward ever. The proof is in the pudding. He is the only PF that ever led his team to multiple rings. Worthy is arguably the 4th greatest small forward ever after Bird, Doc, and Baylor. At center, Ewing is in the range of top 10-12 all time.

Here is how we match up. They have the #1 PF, and we have the #2 PF of all time in Karl Malone. Duncan gets the nod on defense, even though Karl in 1st team All NBA D this season. Karl gets the nod on offence because of his speed on the break, his more consistent outside shot, and his ability to hit the FT especially when it counts.

If Worthy is the 4th best SF ever, Rick Barry is 5th. Worthy is a better all around defender than Barry but Rick has the advantage on offence with a 10 ppg edge. Rick played and scored consistently against the opposition’s best wing defender. Rick will score more on Worthy than Worthy will score on him, negating this advantage. If Worthy had Magic running with him rather than Baron Davis this would be a greater problem for us.

The real problem for Rio will be the disparity between Ewing and Wilt. Ewing never won a ring even when he was the best big man on the floor. He has no inside game to speak of, relying on a very good mid range shot. He better get his point early while his legs are fresh because in the second half his shot goes away after having to guard Wilt in the low box and chase him on the break. Wilt dominates this matchup.

Back court Matchup
Baron Davis is a strong, athletic PG who relies on the drive and while inconsistent with the outside shot can get hot in spurts. Gus is solid, smart, and quick. If Rio has a weakness among their starters it is in their backcourt. Baron and Gus both average more shot attempts than Worthy and we are glad to have either of them looking to score rather than getting the ball to Duncan or Worthy.

Two other factors that weigh against Rio are that Gus is small as a starting 2 at 6’2” / 175 and will not be able to guard Wade. Baron had a spectacular 2nd round playoff, but has never even been to the Western Conference Finals before. As the primary playmaker he has a ton of weight on his inexperienced shoulders.

Bench Matchup
The Rio bench is deep but small. Rio has effective back ups for positions 1-4, but has no back up center. Sky got away with playing Otis Thorpe and Raef LaFrentz against Barca and Utah, but now it’s time to pay the bills as Shawn Kemp and Mel Daniels are going to collect every minute that Duncan and Ewing sit.

1. MINUTES: 10 Man Rotation

Starters: Position / Name / Minutes
5 - Wilt Chamberlain - 40
4 - Karl Malone - 36
3 - Rick Barry - 36
2 - Dwyane Wade - 36
1 - Jason Kidd - 36

Bench: Position / Name / Minutes
5 - Mel Daniels - 8
4 - Shawn Kemp - 12
3 - Bobby Jones - 12
2 – Paul Westphal - 8
1 - Dave Bing - 12
2- Brent Barry - 4

4 - Frank Brickowski - DNP
Inactive: Ervin Johnson

2. SETS

Offense:
Post Wilt 35%
Pick & Roll 20%
Open court transition 20%
Rick Barry ISO on Worthy 10%
Wade ISO on Gus Williams 5%
Kemp ISO on Thorpe / LaFrentz 5%
Post Mel Daniels on LaFrentz / Thorpe 5%

Defense:
Straight Man to man with guard help on Worthy 60%
Man to man with full court pressure on Baron Davis court 20% (when Gus sits)
Man to man half court on Baron Davis trap 20% (when Gus sits)

3. OFFENSE: Game Plan

1. Wilt: As always our #1 priority goals on offence is to establish Wilt in the post. Wilt is the #1 weapon in the ATL and we won’t forget that. It’s on him to try to slow Wilt. We will go to Wilt once every three possessions and when he gets going Kidd will keep feeding him. Karl Malone will set up in his midrange sweet spot on the opposite side when Wilt posts to make Duncan pay if he slides to double Wilt.

2. Pick & Roll: Our second option is the pick and roll using Barry-Malone, Wade-Malone, Bing-Kemp, our main pairs. Malone’s huge picks will wear down Worthy if he fights through and Barry will kill him softly with the jumper if he lays back for the drive. Gus will not want to run into Malone more than once as Wade plays 2 man with Karl. Bing & Kemp will be a focus against a weak Kenny Smith / Thorpe defense.

3. Run: The running game only works when the team that wants to run grabs the rebound consistently. Our starters average a HUGE 18 rebounds a game more than the Rio starters. Our bench out rebounds their bench. Two matchups highlight this disparity: Wilt = 25.7 rpg vs. Ewing = 10.9rpg, and Mel Daniels = 18.0rpg vs. LaFrentz = 7.3rpg!

By owning the glass we can run whenever Kidd decides to push the pace. On the break we have the 2nd best playmaker in the ATL in Kidd. Barry was nicknamed greyhound for how he ran the floor. Wade is one of the best wing finishers.

Duncan and Ewing are good half court defenders but neither one wants to or can keep up with Wilt and Malone on the break. Wilt & Karl are the fastest pair of Bigs from end to end ever. Trying to keep up with no legit backups will leave Ewing and Duncan gassing by the 4th quarter.

4. ISOs: Clear out for Rick Barry to work on Worthy. Rick will force Worthy to play both ends of the court. Rick lives for this kind of matchup and left on an island Worthy cannot stop all of Rick’s weapons. If Worthy closes, Rick drives with his super quick first step. If he lays off Rick hits jumper after jumper. Backside cuts by Wade & Malone give Rick a playmaking option.

Clear out for Wade to work on Gus. Wade can shoot over Gus at will from 3 (38% in playoffs from 3) or take him on the drive at will.

5. Bench Bigs: Clear out for Kemp against either Thorpe or LaFrentz. If they lay back Kemp is deadly on the jumper all the way out to the 3 (42%). If they challenge he will use his speed to go by. The weather man forecasts lightning drives & thunder dunks and plenty of Rain.

Mel Daniels will become a focus in the post for the first time this playoffs whenever LaFrentz or Thorpe are guarding him.

Offense If/Then:
1. If they guard Wilt with Ewing solo, we pound it over and over. Ewing struggled against Hakeem solo. Guarding Wilt solo will be his worst nightmare. If they switch Duncan unto Wilt we emphasize Wilt even more since Duncan can’t jump and Wilt has a vertical over 40 inches.

If Wilt is doubled in the post we will spot up for an open shot or cut to the hole whoever they choose to leave. Wilt will hit the open man or score over double depending on how quick the double comes and whether they bring a big or small.

If Duncan doubles, Wilt moves the ball to Kidd, Barry or Wade who instantly swing it to an open Malone on the opposite wing for the wide open jumper. If Ewing fronts Wilt, Wilt will seal with his greater strength and the Kidd / Wilt ESPN highlight alleyoop-a-thon begins.

2. If Gus, Worthy, Smith go over the screen on the P&R our initiators will drive to just inside the FT line. Wade, Barry, and Bing all have a great 12 foot pull up jumper just outside of swat range. If the defenders play the P&R for the outside jumper, they score all game. Barry with an open jumper = 2 points.

3. If Worthy disrupts our passing lanes on the break Kidd will dribble past him and force him to leave the wings to stop the Kidd layup. Wilt or Malone on one wing, Wade or Barry on the other; pick your poison.

4. DEFENSE: Game Plan

Rio has 3 main weapons: their frontcourt starters. Here is what we are going to do to slow all three. First, Wilt guards Duncan all game. Duncan can score from the elbow, but has never had to shoot that jumper over a player with Wilt’s hops, anticipation and quickness off the floor. After Wilt blocks 2-3 Duncan will begin to look for his teammates. Since Duncan has no 3 shot, Wilt will position himself for the midrange, and remain in position for quick adjustments to shut down a driving Davis, Worthy, or Gus. Duncan can try to post Wilt, but will find less success there than at the elbow. Wilt has never fouled out & won’t on Duncan.

Second, Karl guards Ewing all game. If Ewing tries to post Karl will push him out of his spot and we will live with a long distance turn around jumper. When Ewing spots up on the wing hoping to draw Wilt out, instead he finds a quicker Karl in his face.

Third, Barry will play Worthy for the drive when he faces up. If Worthy posts then Kidd or Wade will bring a hard quick double on the entry pass depending on which side Worthy sets up. We expect Worthy to do some damage, but with his 19ppg, no more than Rick does on offence with his 30ppg.

1.60% - Straight up man to man (with some help on Worthy by our guards

2. 20% - full court pressure Kidd on Baron Davis when Gus goes to the bench and Iggy comes in. Kidd’s pressure and hands will expose Baron’s slower handles.

3. 20% = half court trap with Kidd & Wade springing a delayed trap on Davis as he crosses half court. Again we will trap when Gus is on the bench leaving Baron as the only playmaker on the floor.

Defense If/Then:
1. If Worthy scores repeatedly in the post on Barry we will adjust with Bobby Jones or Shawn Kemp.

2. If Dale Ellis gets hot from 3 off the bench for Worthy then we stick Bobby Jones on him like glue.

5. CLOSING
End game we play our five starters. We keep pounding Wilt in the post the first three minutes of the final five. Ewing and/or Duncan are in foul trouble at this point. If they foul Wilt, it’s a win-win for us with Wilt’s 64% playoff FTs and his only two bigs gaining fouls they can’t afford. Does he really want either Ewing or Duncan on the bench in foul trouble at the end? The final two minutes is money time and Rick Barry is money in ISO, P&R with Malone against a tired Duncan. All inbounds in final 2 minutes go to Rick for 90% FTs as they play catch up.

6. IN CASE OF EMERGENCY
If Barry gets in foul trouble guarding Worthy we will adjust with extra minutes for Bobby Jones.

7. CRYSTAL BALL
Rio will stay close in the first half. The second half we will pull away as our big advantage on the boards and our much faster and deeper Bigs wear them out. Wilt goes off for 35. Barry scores 25 on Worthy. Malone goes for 25 on open jumpers (as Duncan tries to help on Wilt and stop the drives of Wade and Barry), and fast break dunks as Duncan tires from chasing him down the floor time after time.

Worthy does damage but he would need 50 to carry this team and it’s a long way from 19ppg to 50. Duncan has to deal with the best defender he has ever faced in Wilt all game long. Ewing scores 20 on jumpers but it’s not enough to get it done. Rio has one weapon off the bench in Ellis from 3, but Bobby Jones will alter his shot with his length and quickness.

8. WHY WE WIN
Oakland wins because we have the best team, the best deeper stronger frontcourt, and the most dominant player ever in Wilt. It is easier to score from 5 feet like Wilt will do repeatedly, than it is to score from 15-20 like Duncan and Ewing will have to do.

Oakland has three top level playmakers on the floor in Kidd, Wade and Barry. Rio has NO top level playmaker. That means they will have to rely on superior one on one athleticism and skills. Again, Worthy is the only player that has such an advantage. He can’t do it all by himself, all game long. Worthy raises his game in the playoffs, but this season, even in the playoffs he only scored 21ppg.

We win because we flat out OWN the glass. Pat Riley’s words, “No rebounds, no rings!” will be words to contemplate for Rio during their off season.
We win because we are a team of champions, crunch time money players who consistently do whatever it takes to WIN. The best players play their best in the biggest games. Barry and Wade are Finals MVPs. Malone is the MVP and a playoff monster. Kidd is far and away the best floor leader in the game.

Our superior weapons off the bench in Bing and Kemp will extend the lead exposing the lack of bench PG defense and the complete lack of a legit Rio backup Big. Rio faces the same dilemma that the Spurs faced last round. No real bench Bigs is a killer in an ATL league when my backup Bigs are better than the starters on many teams. Basketball is a game of big men. This game will demonstrate why.

"No matter how you total success in the coaching profession, it all comes down to a single factor -- talent." - John Wooden

[Sky]

Judging

1

so now the games get really close...all the teams are stacked with excellent talent and now the coaching becomes more decisive in the games....

Rio

very convincing scouting report of the opponent...the numbers put the stats in the right perspective. also good rotation and offensive game plan is great with one weakness IMO. Perfect gameplan to attack Barry on D (which directly tires him out on O). Only negative factor IMO is that Ewing and Duncan are not involved enaugh on offense...its more attacking or posting from the wing but IMO it would have been important to attack Malone and Wilt to make them work....if they are not challenged defensively they can clogg the lane and Wilt will block everything away...

defensive game plan doesn´t have any real weakness...creative tactics combined with the right personell...I know at this stage of the game, every team has enaugh talent to score, no matter what but one possession might be decisive so its important to have proper tactics and execute especially in crunch time. I think it won´t be easy to just collapse on D and make Wade and Kidd shoot...even with the new rules and zone D, they are THAT good to still score even without having free lanes to the hoop.

all in all of course very solid coaching..

Oakland

I like the rotation amnd the multiple variations offensively. I think the offensive gameplan is really solid...I don´t see big creativity but why change a winning formula? the rebound argument isn´t really true tho because those numbers are from different ERAs with different paces and possessions.

defensively I like the gameplan as well altho I have to admit that the defense concentrates on front court scoring while Sky has more of a perimeter orientated game with attacks from the wing, baseline or post-ups.

the game

wow tough call...I expect this to be very hard fought...both teams have some bigtime leaders and players with pride...Malone, Kidd, Wilt, Duncan, Worthy, Baron...all big-time performers with the pressure on their back...very hard fought game...I still expect Oakland to succeed simply because IMO I feel like Oakland plays their game while Rio kinda adjusts to them....so at the end of the day thats demonstration of power to be able to play YOUR game. I expect a very close game and I expect the game to be decided by Wilts presence in the final 2 minutes...

Oakland by 3....

very tough call for me tho.

Oakland 1-0

2

A battle for the ages...

The domination of Wilt, the explosion of Worthy, the fundamentals of Duncan, the inside power of Malone, the shot blocking of Ewing, the offense of Barry, the playmaking of Kidd, the athleticism of Baron...

Rio
Excellent offensive plays, especially the use of the UCLA, with the high post, which plays to the strengths of Duncan and Baron/Gus
Good point about the size of the lane, the bigger lane negates Wilt's domination
A bit of hyperbole regarding Dumas, explosive, but was he THAT good?
Defense plan solid, especially against pick and role

Oakland
Play to your strength all Wilt all the time
Good use of bench bigs
What is Malone's role?
Barry - was HE THAT good?
Underestimation of Rio backcourt

This game comes down to how much Wilt dominates vs how well Oakland can contain the frontcourt of Rio. The backcourt battle becomes a wash with the old school rules negating the penetration and each team playing for the other to shoot from the outside. This will take Kidd, Wade and Baron out of their games.

I think that there will be times during this game when Wilt will be unstoppable and yes, Wilt will get his, but it won't be THAT easy with a bigger lane and a defender like Ewing. UCLA offense plays to Duncan's strengths, but can Malone contain him? Again, I think that Duncan will get his, but will be challenged. I see alot of Malone the bruiser, but not a low post option?

BTW, I like the change of pace of Dumas, but does his game tip the scales to Rio? IMHO, maybe for a few minutes, but not enough to change the game.

So, it comes down to the match up of Barry vs Worthy. I know that Barry can score on anybody, but so can Worthy. It will be Worthy's ability to contain Barry vs Barry's futile efforts to catch Worthy that will make the difference. His speed, explosiveness on the block, and his defense make him the prototype small forward. I think that Oakland does a good job of making Rick Barry's legend, but truth is this is a mismatch.

Is Wilt's domination enough to overcome the Worthy mismatch? The key? Duncan. He KNOWS how win. He will hit the big shot when the team needs it.
HE tips the scales to Rio's favor.

Rio wins.

Tied 1-1

3

Rio vs Oakland
My Points:
1. As I said above. TALENT will not win game alone especially in an ALL TIME LEAGUE.
Lets Look at talent:
Ewing vs Wilt
Duncan vs Malone
Worthy vs Barry
Williams vs Wade
Baron vs Kidd
a. Looking at those matchup, I just dont believe Wilt's edge over Ewing trumps Duncan over Malone and Worthy over Barry. Slight backcourt edge belongs to Oakland (Kidd never dominates Baron). Therefore Frontcourt to Rio and Backcourt to Oakland. Its a wash talentwise.

2. Rio's offensive gameplan maximizes Worthy's advantage, and spacing to keep Wilt from helping. Oakland's gameplan is predicated on Wilt's domination. He will score, but is it enough to win the game? I'm just not sold on running P&R with Barry/Malone vs Worthy/Duncan (Barry is not the passer that Stockton is) Best offense for Oakland is Wilt vs Ewing, when he said Barry iso on Worthy I had to laugh. Worthy is taller, stronger and quicker than Barry, This is a nightmare matchup for Barry.

3. Defense - Rio exposes Oaklands lack of outside shooting (I'm using the stats from the statbox on this) Oakland's biggest defensive weapon is WILT. He erases alot of mistakes but Having Wilt back there and Kidd up top, I see a long day for Rio, except that Rio uses the UCLA offense and the Spread Ice that basically spaced the floor and puts Barry on an island vs Worthy. Wilt can cover alot of land some mistakes he can erase some he cant.

4. Conclusion: Rio's better gameplan trumps Oakland's slight edge in starting talent.

Rio gets early lead, Oakland battles back, takes lead late in 4th quarter, but Rio wins it when Big Game James delivers. Rio by 3 98-95

Rio 2-1

4

Great lineups for both teams but RIo really did their homework. I have a hard time seeing Oakland as a group overcome the offense and defense gameplans of RIo despite having Wilt.

Game goes to Rio by 8.

Rio 3-1

5

Rio does an excellent job of anticipating Oakland's strategy and tendencies. Oakland's athleticism and talent put them to an early lead, but Rio eventually catches up and wins pulling away. Rio by 8.

Rio 4-1

Rio de Janeiro wins the west and moves on to face New Jersey in the Finals.

[TIME]

Congrats Sky!
_________________
"Better learn not to talk to me," Bryant said of Smith's jabbering. "You shake the tree, a leopard's gonna fall out."

[KB24@CL]

damn in both games I was the 1 that voted different

but these games are close
_________________


"It is not how big you are, it is how big you play"
"Basketball doesn't build character. It reveals it"
"Be strong in body, clean in mind, lofty in ideals"