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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 22155
Location: Tallahassee
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 Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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| PowerGriz wrote: |
| trodgers wrote: |
| Again I think Turiaf's contributions really don't show up that well according to this stat, but it's very interesting. Kobe was dominant. |
Maybe he's not the kind of guy whose contribution shows well in the statline. Still, I did watch parts of the game and I saw him miss badly some pretty easy layups. Are you sure you are looking at him objectively? |
I'm not sure whether you're joking. He was 6-10 from the field, 4-5 from the line. 16 points, 6 boards, 3 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal...in 23.3 minutes. I suppose his 5 TOs made the game go from very good to absolute crap? Not to mention he had a +7 +/-, which was best on the Lakers and better than any starter on either team.
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 8:30 am Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: CHA@LAL (2008-03-26)
Visiting team:bobcats. Chance of success: 0.846661
Matt Carroll 0.216205
Gerald Wallace 0.107616
Raymond Felton 0.0746123
Jason Richardson 0.0655474
Jared Dudley 0.0564847
Earl Boykins 0.0533626
Nazr Mohammed -0.0158570
Emeka Okafor -0.0946458
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.153339
Luke Walton 0.0787311
Lamar Odom 0.0697999
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.0501720
Ronny Turiaf 0.0263681
Kobe Bryant 0.00285680
Derek Fisher -0.0125728
Sasha Vujacic -0.0164392
Jordan Farmar -0.0193151
Vladimir Radmanovic -0.143730 |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 8:33 am Post subject: |
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| trodgers wrote: |
| PowerGriz wrote: |
| trodgers wrote: |
| Again I think Turiaf's contributions really don't show up that well according to this stat, but it's very interesting. Kobe was dominant. |
Maybe he's not the kind of guy whose contribution shows well in the statline. Still, I did watch parts of the game and I saw him miss badly some pretty easy layups. Are you sure you are looking at him objectively? |
I'm not sure whether you're joking. He was 6-10 from the field, 4-5 from the line. 16 points, 6 boards, 3 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal...in 23.3 minutes. I suppose his 5 TOs made the game go from very good to absolute crap? Not to mention he had a +7 +/-, which was best on the Lakers and better than any starter on either team. |
No, I wasn't joking. But like I said, I only watched parts of the game, maybe I just happened to watch those 4 shots he missed.. lol! But if he had 5 TO, that probably explains the low ranking. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: MEM@LAL (2008-03-28)
Visiting team:grizzlies. Chance of success: 0.520432
Rudy Gay 0.214849
Darko Milicic 0.148412
Jason Collins 0.134544
Kyle Lowry 0.0805200
Juan Carlos Navarro 0.0793641
Hakim Warrick 0.0710363
Mike Miller -0.0629075
Javaris Crittenton -0.0793746
Mike Conley -0.0862386
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.479568
Kobe Bryant 0.394058
Jordan Farmar 0.100188
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.0935728
Ronny Turiaf 0.0310174
Derek Fisher 0.0154921
Luke Walton 0.00345944
Sasha Vujacic -0.00580545
Lamar Odom -0.0135088
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -0.0248545
Chris Mihm -0.0251097 |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 22155
Location: Tallahassee
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:08 am Post subject: |
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| trodgers wrote: |
| What's the best ever and worst ever rating for an individual? |
That's a very interesting question indeed
Let's see, the last league-wide analysis I did was back in Mar 7. With the data for the games played up until that date I found that the best individual performance was that of Josh Howard with 0.61 during game #21, whereas the worst was by Radmanovic with -0.40 at game #13. Here are the respective statlines:
pos min fgm-a 3pm-a ftm-a +/- off def tot ast pf st to bs ba pts
Best:
UTA@DAL
J.Howard F 42:26 14-19 4-5 15-17 +19 6 4 10 2 4 0 1 1 1 47
Worst:
NJN@LAL
V.Radmanovic F 24:10 0-10 0-7 1-2 -8 0 0 0 2 1 0 3 0 2 1
Keep in mind that it is more likely to have a larger number if your team's overall chance of success is also large. For instance, in a close game such as last night vs the Grizzlies, where the chances are 0.50, the most any given player could get is (+/-) 0.50. Perhaps this comparison should be done on the basis of performance normalized to team's chance of success. I'll think about it. |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:19 am Post subject: |
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Nah, Vlad sucked big time in that one game, but his average ranking is closer to neutral (or slightly positive).
In my view, when a player gets a really negative ranking usually the coach is to blame for keeping him on the court for so long. In fact, most highly negative performances correspond to superstars because they are not going to the bench no matter how bad they are playing. They are not going to stop taking shots either. So it was surprising to me that the single worst performance was put up by a role player. I didn't watch that game but it seems like the coaching staff fell asleep at the wheel. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: WAS@LAL (2008-03-30)
Visiting team:wizards. Chance of success: 0.297563
DeShawn Stevenson 0.202114
Nick Young 0.176235
Brendan Haywood 0.0640384
Dominic McGuire 0.0497182
Antonio Daniels 0.0307412
Andray Blatche 0.0154989
Darius Songaila -0.00897466
Antawn Jamison -0.0130250
Roger Mason -0.0218473
Caron Butler -0.0312898
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.702437
Luke Walton 0.345904
Sasha Vujacic 0.244534
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.189756
Ronny Turiaf 0.143541
Derek Fisher 0.109717
Lamar Odom 0.0512948
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.0146082
Jordan Farmar -0.0229305
Chris Mihm -0.0411990
Kobe Bryant -0.108647 |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: POR@LAL (2008-04-02)
Visiting team:blazers. Chance of success: 0.0737570
Martell Webster 0.0629235
Travis Outlaw 0.0212915
Joel Przybilla 0.00857243
Sergio Rodriguez 0.00659228
Steve Blake -0.00109567
Raef LaFrentz -0.00821379
James Jones -0.00944692
Channing Frye -0.0280351
LaMarcus Aldridge -0.0302787
Jarrett Jack -0.0674336
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.926243
Kobe Bryant 0.503678
Derek Fisher 0.0713418
Jordan Farmar 0.0580958
Lamar Odom 0.0379518
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.0104411
Pau Gasol -0.00431479
Sasha Vujacic -0.0185694
Vladimir Radmanovic -0.0191972
Luke Walton -0.0223548
Ronny Turiaf -0.0315878 |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: |
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trodgers, did you want to know what an season-high performance looks like? Well, if you saw Kobe tonight, it's kind of like that  |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 22155
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 7:05 am Post subject: |
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| PowerGriz wrote: |
| trodgers, did you want to know what an season-high performance looks like? Well, if you saw Kobe tonight, it's kind of like that |
Awesome! He was really pretty dominant.
I thought Gasol played reasonably well, but I guess he played a lot of minutes and didn't really put up any huge numbers (even if his all-around game was solid) so I guess that accounts for his low rating?
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:09 am Post subject: |
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| trodgers wrote: |
I thought Gasol played reasonably well, but I guess he played a lot of minutes and didn't really put up any huge numbers (even if his all-around game was solid) so I guess that accounts for his low rating? |
I'm a big fan of Gasol  but I thought he was merely ok last night. He missed lots of shots and had a couple of turnovers. His best contribution was the passing. Keep in mind that a zero ranking doesn't mean a player did a poor job. It simply means he was "average".
By the way, that's one of the things I like about Pau. He rarely gets into very negative numbers because he knows when he isn't hot and he'll find other ways to contribute or simply step back a little and let teammates take over. I know some people doesn't like that, there is the prevailing theory in the NBA that good players have to keep shooting even if they are missing. That's supposedly a sign of character. I think it's better to be smart and recognize when it's just not your night and not hurt your team. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 9:58 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: DAL@LAL (2008-04-04)
Visiting team:mavericks. Chance of success: 0.269535
Jason Terry 0.138215
Dirk Nowitzki 0.132572
Jason Kidd 0.121495
Erick Dampier 0.105670
Josh Howard 0.0618805
Devean George 0.0234751
Brandon Bass 0.00318841
Malik Allen -0.00248360
Eddie Jones -0.0793978
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.730465
Lamar Odom 0.423605
Kobe Bryant 0.390904
Sasha Vujacic 0.176697
Derek Fisher 0.136561
Pau Gasol 0.0572521
Ronny Turiaf 0.0114841
Jordan Farmar -0.0202362
Luke Walton -0.102527
Vladimir Radmanovic -0.144453 |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 9:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Hmmm... I thought Pau played better than Fisher. But maybe I'm biased. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 7:57 am Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: LAL@SAC (2008-04-06)
Visiting team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.991386
Kobe Bryant 0.136956
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.114881
Lamar Odom 0.0984437
Pau Gasol 0.0554544
Sasha Vujacic 0.0142904
Jordan Farmar 0.00550487
Derek Fisher 0.00297764
Ronny Turiaf -0.0140492
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -0.0158522
Ira Newble -0.0289971
Home team:kings. Chance of success: 0.00861394
Kevin Martin 0.0231646
Mikki Moore 0.0118060
Shelden Williams 0.0115260
Ron Artest -0.000677855
John Salmons -0.00395543
Anthony Johnson -0.00908819
Spencer Hawes -0.0173607
Quincy Douby -0.0197679
Francisco Garcia -0.0473809 |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 22155
Location: Tallahassee
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karacha
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 15499
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: |
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Their chance of success was close to 0%.
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| karacha wrote: |
| Their chance of success was close to 0%. |
After watching the game, it doesn't surprise me |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 8:29 am Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: LAL@POR (2008-04-08)
Visiting team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.277904
Pau Gasol 0.148279
Lamar Odom 0.0857410
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.0775519
Sasha Vujacic 0.0667994
Kobe Bryant 0.0643006
Derek Fisher -0.0221628
Ronny Turiaf -0.0574163
Jordan Farmar -0.0666500
Home team:blazers. Chance of success: 0.722096
Channing Frye 0.354320
Brandon Roy 0.213696
Jarrett Jack 0.182015
LaMarcus Aldridge 0.149850
Raef LaFrentz 0.0654454
James Jones 0.00510619
Steve Blake -0.0618565
Sergio Rodriguez -0.0632738
Travis Outlaw -0.134536 |
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lakerholic
Joined: 29 Jul 2003
Posts: 1520
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: |
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Can we give PowerGriz a sticky? This is some good stuff.
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks, lakerholic
That would also make it a bit easier to maintain the thread (that's the way they have it in the Grizzlies forum, by the way) |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 22155
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| PowerGriz wrote: |
Thanks, lakerholic
That would also make it a bit easier to maintain the thread (that's the way they have it in the Grizzlies forum, by the way) |
Welcome. 
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crucifixion
Joined: 30 Dec 2005
Posts: 3912
Location: Posting at CL from my phone while at Staples
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 9:10 pm Post subject: |
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Another sticky? This page is nothing but sticky's lol
Anyways, im confused. Is this an analysis that you run before the game? Because I notice the "chances of winning" ratio. But based on the post date, it looks like its post game. If so, then its just a post game stat, and all stats are 20/20. So im confused on the purpose of this
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| Quote: |
| Walsh said: “It’s going to take a lot of work [to fix the Knicks]. And I don’t want anyone to be fooled. There’s no magic wand here, all right?” |
That's because Mitch has it. |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 22155
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 6:43 am Post subject: |
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| crucifixion wrote: |
Another sticky? This page is nothing but sticky's lol
Anyways, im confused. Is this an analysis that you run before the game? Because I notice the "chances of winning" ratio. But based on the post date, it looks like its post game. If so, then its just a post game stat, and all stats are 20/20. So im confused on the purpose of this |
It shows you how much the player contributed to the win. So if you replaced a certain player...blah blah blah :)
It's on the first page of this thread if you want to see. And not all post game stats are 20/20. Sometimes the team with more points loses...see forfeits. Sometimes, the worse shooting team loses. Etc...
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 7:15 am Post subject: |
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Thanks, trodgers
| crucifixion wrote: |
Anyways, im confused. Is this an analysis that you run before the game? Because I notice the "chances of winning" ratio. But based on the post date, it looks like its post game. If so, then its just a post game stat, and all stats are 20/20. So im confused on the purpose of this |
It's like trodgers said, it's a postgame analysis of player contributions. Read the first post for more information. You will see that the neural network doesn't know how many points each team scored, it only knows shooting percentages, rebound figures, assists, etc. So based on that it "guesses" who won. Then you can evaluate how that chance changes when you take a given player out of the game, etc. Anyway, it's all explained in detail in the first post and the links there.
It is possible to use this method to make predictions as well but I don't find that as interesting as the game analysis |
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crucifixion
Joined: 30 Dec 2005
Posts: 3912
Location: Posting at CL from my phone while at Staples
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| Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:35 am Post subject: |
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Oh I see.
OK thanks for the feedback. Makes sense now.
I was hoping this a was a pre-game analysis, as I had one foot out the door on my way to Vegas 
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| Quote: |
| Walsh said: “It’s going to take a lot of work [to fix the Knicks]. And I don’t want anyone to be fooled. There’s no magic wand here, all right?” |
That's because Mitch has it. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: The PowerGriz numbers. Last update: LAL@LAC (2008-04-10) |
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The PowerGriz numbers: LAL@LAC (2008-04-10)
Visiting team:lakers. Chance of success: 1.00000
Lamar Odom 0.0664561
Luke Walton 0.0585840
Pau Gasol 0.0374777
Jordan Farmar 0.0340224
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.0224774
Ronny Turiaf 0.0147873
Ira Newble 0.00685084
Sasha Vujacic 0.00438817
Derek Fisher -0.00931364
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -0.0112287
Chris Mihm -0.0115224
Kobe Bryant -0.0175191
Home team:clippers. Chance of success: 0.00000
Elton Brand 0.0168579
Al Thornton 0.0118621
Quinton Ross 0.00516647
Nick Fazekas 0.00404167
Josh Powell 0.00267849
Smush Parker -0.000571424
Dan Dickau -0.0102572
Marcus Williams -0.0136940
Cuttino Mobley -0.0268982
Tim Thomas -0.0774862 |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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Look at Luke, hehe 
That's what happens when you get extended garbage time  |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: NOH@LAL (2008-04-11)
Visiting team:hornets. Chance of success: 0.305571
Tyson Chandler 0.221526
Peja Stojakovic 0.150143
Morris Peterson 0.0658453
Julian Wright 0.0520042
Chris Paul 0.0472232
Jannero Pargo -0.00953038
Bonzi Wells -0.0214396
Melvin Ely -0.0398438
David West -0.0402487
Mike James -0.0415285
Hilton Armstrong -0.0826379
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.694429
Pau Gasol 0.395765
Kobe Bryant 0.318654
Lamar Odom 0.131903
Derek Fisher 0.0693512
Sasha Vujacic 0.0488697
Ronny Turiaf 0.0279824
Jordan Farmar -0.0208462
Luke Walton -0.0672326
Vladimir Radmanovic -0.134904 |
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