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two0one7
Joined: 21 Jul 2007
Posts: 8605
Location: Laker Land
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 Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:55 pm Post subject: |
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Do you keep track of player's average ratings? I'm wondering who the league leaders are.
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 7:16 am Post subject: |
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| two0one7 wrote: |
| Do you keep track of player's average ratings? I'm wondering who the league leaders are. |
Sure, I'll post it later today |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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Ok, keep in mind that this list is relative, not absolute. It reflects the importance of each player to his team
1 LeBron James 10.1903
2 Dwight Howard 8.63675
3 Amare Stoudemire 8.49584
4 Kobe Bryant 7.64841
5 Vince Carter 7.00864
6 Chris Paul 7.00493
7 Josh Childress 6.82616
8 Kevin Garnett 6.64070
9 Chauncey Billups 6.41308
10 Manu Ginobili 6.36685
11 Monta Ellis 6.32777
12 Tyson Chandler 6.30690
13 Chris Bosh 6.04230
14 Dirk Nowitzki 5.95623
15 Allen Iverson 5.91450
16 Lamar Odom 5.89942
17 Steve Nash 5.89239
18 Ray Allen 5.86163
19 Yao Ming 5.72237
20 Tim Duncan 5.60848 |
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L4L
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 18 Jun 2007
Posts: 9230
Location: Trade Rumors Forum
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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^^Thanks. Anyway that you can normalize and adjust for games played?
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All-NBA Challenge Roster:
PG: Steve Nash, Stephon Marbury, Delonte West
SG: Ray Allen, Francisco Garcia, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Paul Pierce, Shane Battier, Ruben Patterson
PF: Kevin Garnett, Kurt Thomas, Andray Blatche
C: Kendrick Perkins, Joel Przybilla, Rasho Nesterovic |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 2:05 pm Post subject: |
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| L4L wrote: |
| ^^Thanks. Anyway that you can normalize and adjust for games played? |
Yup. Here I normalized to games played and also multiplied by team wins (to give more importance to contributions in winning teams so that it is more fair to compare players in different teams)
1 Kevin Garnett 6.33885
2 LeBron James 6.25974
3 Amare Stoudemire 6.16821
4 Dwight Howard 5.64268
5 Ray Allen 5.43063
6 Chris Paul 5.27769
7 Kobe Bryant 5.25828
8 Chauncey Billups 5.13047
9 Manu Ginobili 4.91157
10 Tyson Chandler 4.81777
11 Lamar Odom 4.32624
12 Tim Duncan 4.26560
13 Dirk Nowitzki 4.19453
14 Steve Nash 4.16395
15 Monta Ellis 3.96540
16 Richard Hamilton 3.82190
17 Allen Iverson 3.78528
18 Paul Pierce 3.77368
19 Josh Childress 3.71423
20 Carlos Boozer 3.62445 |
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L4L
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 18 Jun 2007
Posts: 9230
Location: Trade Rumors Forum
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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^^Interesting results. Thanks again PowerGriz.
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All-NBA Challenge Roster:
PG: Steve Nash, Stephon Marbury, Delonte West
SG: Ray Allen, Francisco Garcia, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Paul Pierce, Shane Battier, Ruben Patterson
PF: Kevin Garnett, Kurt Thomas, Andray Blatche
C: Kendrick Perkins, Joel Przybilla, Rasho Nesterovic |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| L4L wrote: |
| ^^Interesting results. Thanks again PowerGriz. |
No problem. It's fun
The PowerGriz numbers: SAS@LAL (2008-04-13)
Visiting team:spurs. Chance of success: 0.0493848
Tony Parker 0.0342574
Jacque Vaughn 0.0320154
Ime Udoka 0.0301020
Bruce Bowen 0.00908671
Michael Finley 0.000249465
Fabricio Oberto -0.00277104
DerMarr Johnson -0.00499594
Matt Bonner -0.00784576
Tim Duncan -0.0111676
Damon Stoudamire -0.0132814
Kurt Thomas -0.0368642
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.950615
Jordan Farmar 0.108548
Derek Fisher 0.106775
Lamar Odom 0.0824354
Ira Newble 0.0468803
Pau Gasol 0.0308227
Kobe Bryant 0.0263104
Ronny Turiaf 0.0249921
Luke Walton 0.0189339
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.0135937
Vladimir Radmanovic -0.000349270
Sasha Vujacic -0.0110977
Tonight was one of those games in which you can't take the numbers very seriously because of the extended garbage time. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 8:01 am Post subject: |
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| crucifixion wrote: |
I was hoping this a was a pre-game analysis, as I had one foot out the door on my way to Vegas  |
Actually the method could be used for predictions. I think I still have a bug or two in the prediction part but here is a teaser 
========================================================
Mon 14 Apr 2008
Last night games:
Game 1: Toronto @ Detroit
Score: 84 - 91
Prediction: 0.526170 vs 0.473830 (Incorrect)
Game 2: San Antonio @ LA Lakers
Score: 85 -106
Prediction: 0.103832 vs 0.896168 (Correct)
Game 3: Miami @ Cleveland
Score: 76 - 84
Prediction: 0.145209 vs 0.854791 (Correct)
Game 4: Orlando @ Chicago
Score: 104 - 84
Prediction: 0.784332 vs 0.215668 (Correct)
Game 5: Houston @ Denver
Score: 94 -111
Prediction: 0.444510 vs 0.555490 (Correct)
Game 6: Dallas @ Seattle
Score: 95 - 99
Prediction: 0.919883 vs 0.0801166 (Incorrect)
========================================================
Mon 14 Apr 2008
Predictions for tonight games:
Game 1: Cleveland @ Philadelphia
Prediction: 0.453069 vs 0.546931
Game 2: Indiana @ Washington
Prediction: 0.222720 vs 0.777280
Game 3: Miami @ Toronto
Prediction: 0.0753500 vs 0.924650
Game 4: Boston @ New York
Prediction: 0.493678 vs 0.506322
Game 5: Chicago @ Milwaukee
Prediction: 0.462130 vs 0.537870
Game 6: Houston @ Utah
Prediction: 0.345912 vs 0.654088
Game 7: Golden State @ Phoenix
Prediction: 0.154534 vs 0.845466
Game 8: San Antonio @ Sacramento
Prediction: 0.218541 vs 0.781459 |
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Ed Guru
Joined: 12 Nov 2004
Posts: 538
Location: Unofficial New Zeaaland Rep
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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This is the interesting one:
| Quote: |
Game 6: Houston @ Utah
Prediction: 0.345912 vs 0.654088 |
If your numbers work out right, and I think they will in this case, Utah wins and we inch closer to that number 1.
How about the prediction for the Sac game??
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..with the sharpness.. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 4:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Ed Guru wrote: |
This is the interesting one:
| Quote: |
Game 6: Houston @ Utah
Prediction: 0.345912 vs 0.654088 |
If your numbers work out right, and I think they will in this case, Utah wins and we inch closer to that number 1.
How about the prediction for the Sac game?? |
The prediction is based on the last 5 games only and the Spurs have not been very good in that stretch. When I started computing these I had two predictions for each game, one based on the each team's season averages and another based on the last 5 games. I found that the latter works much better. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: |
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Damn! That turned out to be a particularly bad prediction. It gets the right outcome 75% to 80% of the games on average (you can check the predictions thread in the Grizzlies forum).
You know how I said earlier that I think there are still one or two bugs in the program? One of the reasons why I believe that is because it systematically underestimates the Celtics. This is one example. Really, how many of us were expecting the Celtcis to lose to NY? 
Anyway, I should probably stick with the postgame analysis until I iron out those wrinkles in the prediction program |
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Ed Guru
Joined: 12 Nov 2004
Posts: 538
Location: Unofficial New Zeaaland Rep
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 3:48 pm Post subject: |
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I actually wouldn't have been surprised to see NY pull off a victory over the Boston reserves..
Now, to that Sac game today.. I reckon it'll be sooo close..
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: |
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Sorry for the delay. Here are the numbers for last nights game:
The PowerGriz numbers: SAC@LAL (2008-04-15)
Visiting team:kings. Chance of success: 0.0162827
Beno Udrih 0.0396799
Quincy Douby 0.0367230
Francisco Garcia 0.0163305
Mikki Moore -0.000822752
Shelden Williams -0.00147709
Anthony Johnson -0.00318535
Spencer Hawes -0.0631549
John Salmons -0.0672448
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.983717
Lamar Odom 0.150754
Pau Gasol 0.101720
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.0745708
Jordan Farmar 0.0509223
Ronny Turiaf 0.0387359
Luke Walton 0.0188723
Sasha Vujacic 0.0135132
Kobe Bryant 0.00486132
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.00168819
Ira Newble 0.00128911
Derek Fisher -0.0228662
Chris Mihm -0.0445461 |
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RushDelivery
Joined: 25 Mar 2004
Posts: 1239
Location: LA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:21 pm Post subject: |
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Just wanted to say thanks for the interesting numbers PowerGriz, it seems your system is near perfect for the post-game prediction. I really hope you fix whatever is going wrong with your pre-game predictions, it'd be very interesting to have a fairly accurate way to predict a game based solely off of statistics.
I wanted to know if you have any way to account for drawing offensive fouls or causing turnovers when calculating how important a player was for his team. I recently watched the Hornets game and watched Pargo do the little things on defense that never show up in the box score such as drawing a charge or causing a 24-second violation against the Lakers, but he wasn't really rated very high by your numbers, which is why I asked.
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"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin
"If one rejects laissez-faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action." - Ludwig von Mises |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:14 am Post subject: |
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Thanks, man
| RushDelivery wrote: |
I wanted to know if you have any way to account for drawing offensive fouls or causing turnovers when calculating how important a player was for his team. I recently watched the Hornets game and watched Pargo do the little things on defense that never show up in the box score such as drawing a charge or causing a 24-second violation against the Lakers, but he wasn't really rated very high by your numbers, which is why I asked. |
It is accounted for in a season-averaged sense in what I call the defensive correction. I look at each game and compute the difference between the opponents average stats and their stats for that game. The resulting difference is credited to (or blamed on) the defense of players in the same position.
It sounds more complicated than it actually is, maybe it's easier to explain with an example. To answer your specific question. if Pargo does this every game (draw a couple of charges, force turnovers) then yes, it would be factored in his ranking. If, on the other hand, he played better D than usual, then the method would miss that. |
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RushDelivery
Joined: 25 Mar 2004
Posts: 1239
Location: LA
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| Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 11:44 am Post subject: |
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I see, your system is good at using season averages to determine a player's defensive contributions not seen in stats but it cannot account for them on a game by game basis. In contrast, your system can easily determine which team won on a game by game basis but cannot use season averages to accurately predict a future game.
Interesting parallel there
Honestly though, I enjoy reading your predictions and I hope you do work out all of the bugs preventing your code from going to the next level.
_________________
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin
"If one rejects laissez-faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action." - Ludwig von Mises |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2008 6:55 pm Post subject: |
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| RushDelivery wrote: |
| I see, your system is good at using season averages to determine a player's defensive contributions not seen in stats but it cannot account for them on a game by game basis. |
That's exactly right
| Quote: |
In contrast, your system can easily determine which team won on a game by game basis but cannot use season averages to accurately predict a future game.
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No, I believe the prediction system works too. It's the actual implementation that I think is flawed. Probably just a bug or two that I still haven't found. Even with those bugs it gets 75% to 80% of the games right on average. That's pretty good. Oh, and by the way, it doesn't use season averages. It only takes into account the last 5 games played by each time. I found that this gives better accuracy than the season averages, probably because teams tend to go on good or bad streaks.
By the way, just to clarify, this whole discussion and the lingering problems refer to the predictions. It has nothing to do with the postgame analysis which is the main point of this thread.
| Quote: |
Honestly though, I enjoy reading your predictions and I hope you do work out all of the bugs preventing your code from going to the next level. |
Thanks, man |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 23344
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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Playoffs?! I just wanna see the stats from the game!
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Props to BDG for the Imago. |
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karacha
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 15732
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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| karacha wrote: |
Playoffs, playoffs!  |
LOL! Sorry, I was out celebrating
The PowerGriz numbers: DEN@LAL (2008-04-20)
Visiting team:nuggets. Chance of success: 0.163164
Linas Kleiza 0.134909
Allen Iverson 0.0781224
Carmelo Anthony 0.0724219
J.R. Smith 0.0518428
Kenyon Martin -0.000507152
Anthony Carter -0.00343169
Eduardo Najera -0.00790929
Marcus Camby -0.162243
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.836836
Pau Gasol 0.369077
Lamar Odom 0.235060
Luke Walton 0.169846
Jordan Farmar 0.0181725
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.0167004
Sasha Vujacic 0.0156961
Derek Fisher 0.0107892
Ronny Turiaf -0.0142835
Kobe Bryant -0.0586172
I think this method (or any other mathematical method for that matter) is not going to be very fair with Kobe. Tonight he became the focal point of the Nuggets defense, which made his own game suffer but opened things up for his teammates. That doesn't show very well in the stats. Ok, he didn't have his best game but surely he wasn't our worst player by any stretch of the imagination. Other than that, I think this ranking is pretty good
Hey, how about my man Gasol? 
I knew he was going to surprise many Laker fans given his past playoff record but you have to blame that on the team. He actually stepped up his game during the playoffs with the Grizzlies. |
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RushDelivery
Joined: 25 Mar 2004
Posts: 1239
Location: LA
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| Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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I think your player rankings were very good for this game. Gasol and Odom clearly led the Lakers while Kobe somewhat struggled for the majority of the game, and Kleiza and AI were definitely killing us and keeping the Nuggets in the game.
Make sure to update the title of this thread, it still refers to the SAC game and that may be why you didn't get many replies yet.
_________________
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin
"If one rejects laissez-faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action." - Ludwig von Mises |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| RushDelivery wrote: |
Make sure to update the title of this thread, it still refers to the SAC game and that may be why you didn't get many replies yet. |
Oops!
Thanks |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:30 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: DEN@LAL (2008-04-23)
Visiting team:nuggets. Chance of success: 0.104546
Allen Iverson 0.0777507
J.R. Smith 0.0721756
Eduardo Najera 0.0314805
Marcus Camby 0.0250910
Anthony Carter 0.00825606
Steven Hunter 0.00713613
Yakhouba Diawara 0.00581058
Nen� 0.00418479
Linas Kleiza -0.00316558
Carmelo Anthony -0.0152645
Kenyon Martin -0.0275836
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.895454
Kobe Bryant 0.549225
Derek Fisher 0.0696369
Pau Gasol 0.0677950
Luke Walton 0.0567362
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.0447968
Sasha Vujacic 0.0126891
Ira Newble 0.00475408
Coby Karl 0.00377241
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -0.0118003
Jordan Farmar -0.0394300
Lamar Odom -0.0652670
Astonishing performance by Kobe tonight, and the numbers reflect that. In factt he just broke the all-time PowerGriz ranking record for a playoff game. Ok, that's not saying much since this is only the second playoff game I analyze, but still. 55% must be one of the best scores I've seen.
Glad to see my man Gasol was able to pick it up in the second half after a slow start.
I also thought AI and J.R. Smith were giving us the most trouble.
Overall, a great win for the Lakers |
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trodgers
Clublakers Moderator
Joined: 22 Oct 2004
Posts: 23344
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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^ Nice, man. Kobe lit it the heck up.
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Props to BDG for the Imago. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: LAL@DEN (2008-04-26)
Visiting team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.955720
Luke Walton 0.163985
Derek Fisher 0.0772750
Kobe Bryant 0.0526766
Sasha Vujacic 0.0490382
Pau Gasol 0.0351898
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.0333929
Lamar Odom -0.0138911
Jordan Farmar -0.0187452
Ronny Turiaf -0.0270439
Vladimir Radmanovic -0.0393207
Home team:nuggets. Chance of success: 0.0442803
Linas Kleiza 0.0373675
Nen� 0.0198560
Kenyon Martin 0.0126493
Allen Iverson 0.0105783
J.R. Smith 0.00542021
Yakhouba Diawara 0.00351024
Steven Hunter 0.00214047
Chucky Atkins -0.00108445
Anthony Carter -0.0159106
Eduardo Najera -0.0173738
Marcus Camby -0.0193227
Carmelo Anthony -0.0535875
Note that there was extended garbage time tonight. That tends to distort the numbers. |
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karacha
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 15732
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| Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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Thank you, those are interesting numbers.
Melo certainly contributed... for the wrong team. 
_________________
www.myspace.com/karacha |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:22 pm Post subject: |
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The PowerGriz numbers: LAL@DEN (2008-04-28)
Visiting team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.735977
Pau Gasol 0.208099
Lamar Odom 0.153808
Sasha Vujacic 0.0568665
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.0548338
Luke Walton 0.0274263
Jordan Farmar 0.0261736
Kobe Bryant 0.0150964
Vladimir Radmanovic -0.0318035
Derek Fisher -0.0469233
Home team:nuggets. Chance of success: 0.264023
J.R. Smith 0.204928
Allen Iverson 0.0566693
Linas Kleiza 0.0310847
Eduardo Najera 0.0180758
Marcus Camby 0.0158942
Nen� 0.0128416
Yakhouba Diawara 0.00924481
Carmelo Anthony -0.0269300
Anthony Carter -0.0432844
Kenyon Martin -0.0624047
| Quote: |
I think this method (or any other mathematical method for that matter) is not going to be very fair with Kobe. Tonight he became the focal point of the Nuggets defense, which made his own game suffer but opened things up for his teammates. |
What I said before
I thought Kobe played very well tonight. I suspect the low ranking was due to the poor FT shooting and especially the 6 turnovers. The method gives TO a very high impact factor. |
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PowerGriz
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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I couldn't watch the game tonight but that's ok because I have my numbers and they tell me everything I need to know
The PowerGriz numbers: UTA@LAL (2008-05-04)
Visiting team:jazz. Chance of success: 0.140996
Mehmet Okur 0.117056
Kyle Korver 0.0621397
C.J. Miles 0.0465489
Deron Williams 0.0242677
Jarron Collins 0.00464661
Ronnie Brewer -0.00179820
Ronnie Price -0.0109584
Andrei Kirilenko -0.0190201
Paul Millsap -0.0249686
Carlos Boozer -0.0365715
Matt Harpring -0.0638513
Home team:lakers. Chance of success: 0.859004
Kobe Bryant 0.358914
Pau Gasol 0.204867
Sasha Vujacic 0.159295
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.0651221
Lamar Odom 0.0163116
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 0.00682655
Derek Fisher -0.00282386
Luke Walton -0.0139412
Ronny Turiaf -0.0666482
Jordan Farmar -0.0960379 |
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Senor Mortgage
Joined: 16 Feb 2008
Posts: 473
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 6:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Wow, I thought it would have been a lot closer with the rebounding disparity. |
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kobeisKING
Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 98
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| Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: |
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| that critical breakdown guy realllly sucks =D |
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