trodgers wrote:Great comment, guys. Really appreciate the hard-hitting analysis.
This is the first time the Lakers have fallen back so far (you can see previous ones under Wannabes). Calculations are made based on overall record, record of the team when their best players are healthy, record against playoff teams, and record against other elite teams. LA has really fallen in all these categories of late.
There's no calculation that accounts for Kobe Bryant or the playoff experience of this team, but I think there's no doubt that both Denver and Dallas would be incredibly tough matchups for LA at this point.
Alcindor wrote:Relax. I don’t know what “tantrum” are you referring to. Nothing worse than someone who adds presumed negative emotion to someone else’s comments that doesn’t exist in an attempt to make them look bad.
I tinker with stats. I won't tell you how I come to these stats because there's no point in that. I also have no idea how accurate these stats are going to be in predicting the outcome of the playoffs. I'll just say they're somewhat similar to the stats I've used to project playoffs the last two years and those numbers were quite accurate.
As to me seeming to think that the Nuggets have a better chance of winning compared to the Lakers than the system is showing, I have no idea what you are talking about, my first comment said exactly the opposite.I'll explain: you seemed to find fault with the Lakers' chances of winning being half that of the Nuggets. So you seemed to think that the Nuggets chances should be different (i.e., less than 18%), as compared to that of the Lakers (which is currently 9.4%).Dig up the Lakers stats for the 2000-2001 56 win season which then went 15-1 in the playoffs. It’s just not a great way to determine playoff performance IMO.
thkthebest wrote:I'm actually curious to know how you determine the percentage, although I'm guessing you won't disclose that.
Do you happen to have a list of how accurate your calculations have been with past seasons? For example, how many times has your most likely team won the championship? Second most likely?
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