LA Positional Analysis: PF (Trodgers)

LA Positional Analysis: PF (Trodgers)

Postby trodgers on Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:49 am

http://blog.travisjrodgers.com/2012/06/15/lakers-positional-analysis-power-forward.aspx

SCORING EFFICIENCY (Kevin Love 6.7)
Gasol 5.8
Hill 5.4
Murphy 4.1
McRoberts 4.1
-Differences among Scoring Efficiencies for bigs are often a reflection of one player's superior reserve of moves and ways to score. It's not surprising that Pau Gasol dwarfs Murphy's and McRoberts's scores. Jordan Hill's number is likely inflated by limited minutes, but over the course of the season (including his time with Houston), that number fell not far--to 5.2. Still a number far better than the other backup PFs. Hill did the dirty work that McRoberts was expected to do.

PASSING EFFICIENCY (Gasol - tops)
Gasol 2.9
McRoberts 2.5
Murphy 2.2
Hill 1.5
-Gasol's Passing Efficiency (PAFF) is no surprise. He exceeded all the big names at the PF spot, with only Blake Griffin coming close at 2.8. McRoberts's passing number might be surprising, but in 2010/2011 with Indiana, he posted a 2.9 PAFF. And throughout his career the number is a strong 2.7. Jordan Hill's strength lies in making the aggressive and opportunistic play, not necessarily in making the smart basketball play. His full season Passing Efficiency was just 1.6. All the top PFs were at 2.2 or better.


HUSTLE EFFICIENCY (Griffin/Love/Gasol 3.2)
Hill 4.5
McRobert 3.2
Gasol 3.2
Murphy 2.5
-Hill's HUFF is off the charts, but there are reasons for that (I need to do some tweaking is reason one). In limited time with the team, he was a beast on the offensive glass. Over the course of his full season, the number falls to 3.7, but it's still a great number. McRoberts, a hustle player, and Gasol, a crafty player, both score well here. Murphy's number is poor compared to many of the other big names in the league. Interestingly, both McRoberst and Gasol are right in line with the best PFs.

OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
Hill 97
Gasol 94
McRoberts 63
Murphy 51
-Compare to some of the top PFs in the league: Kevin Love 104, Griffin 103, Aldridge 99, Nowitzki 86, Bosh 84. Jordan Hill did some amazing things in his time with the Lakers. The 97 is certainly misleading, but his season O-EFF was 81; if he could perform at or close to that level, he would be an elite backup. Gasol's performance is not surprising. Whatever struggles he has had, he remains a supremely skilled big man. McRoberts struggled to find scoring opportunities. He took more than 7 shots only ONCE on the season, and he took more than 5 shots only six times. He has to be more aggressive at looking for his shot. Troy Murphy was pretty dreadful despite shooting very well from beyond the arc, a shame after he got off to a strong start (for instance, he had 6+ boards in six of LA's first ten games).

CONTRACT SITUATION
Pau Gasol is due $38.3M over the next two seasons. Josh McRoberts has another year on his contract, at just over $3M. The Lakers hold a Team Option on Jordan Hill for $3.6M (after which point he would become a Restricted Free Agent). Troy Murphy's contract is up.

ANALYSIS
There are some of the mind that this team need not alter its core. If big changes are in the offing, Pau Gasol is the piece most likely to leave. Supposing Gasol remains, keeping Hill and McRoberts would provide two quality backup bigs. Unfortunately, that would mean that LA is sinking about $20M at both the PF and Center positions. After consecutive 2nd round exits from the playoffs, that might be too much money to drop without significant roster changes. If Gasol is dealt, McRoberts and Hill almost have to return. They are both young players with strong upside, the ability to make spot starts, and their salaries are bargains for productive bigs. So look for good things as both McRoberts and Hill see more time with the current team, become more familiar with the system, and play in contract seasons.
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Re: LA Positional Analysis: PF (Trodgers)

Postby therealdeal on Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:49 am

I would be very surprised to see both McRoberts and Hill back next season unless one of them is starting. I think Hill's skillet is perfect to play with Bynum who has shown that at times he can become obsessed with the offensive side of the ball. His activity makes it difficult to double off of him and his rebounding prowess is impressive.

McRoberts' passing ability is also impressive. I knew he was a good passer, but I didn't know he was that good. I think he'd be great in a quicker lineup off the bench.

If he and Hill split minutes at othe four next season I think we'd be in okay shape, especially if it meant Gasol netted us an elite PG. However, given the fact that both Hill and McRoberts are young studs on cheaper contracts, I could very well see either or both of them being moved for help elsewhere.

I hope Hill stays. He proved himself the most consistent rebounder in the playoffs for us. His activity was awesome to watch.
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Re: LA Positional Analysis: PF (Trodgers)

Postby Rooscooter on Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:58 am

Based on their play for us.... Hill looked better than McRoberts..... but based on what they have done in longer stretches Mc Roberts is the superior player and the one I'd keep if forced to choose. Mc Roberts play was frustrating at times because he was just about the only one moving the ball on the floor (even when he should have moved it and shot instead). In the right situation I think Mc Roberts can be a 10-8-3 guy that can be an integral part of the team rather than a bit player. Hill's run with us was his best play of his career.... in a contract year. He's been accused of being less than motivated in prior years and has moved off of teams that aren't exactly deep in the front court. Maybe he's a find or maybe he's fools gold.... Hard to tell in the limited action we've seen from him.

As for Pau... I'd be very surprised if he's still here come October (or mid July for that matter). If there was a way to get a top flight SF and a Dead Eye shooter off the bench without breaking up the core I'd like to give it a try again with these guys, but the odds of that happening are Lottery like unfortunately. What we need next to Bynum (if we are keeping him) is a PF that can shoot the jumper and rebound.... David West, David Lee or Luis Scola type..... That allows for some spacing that was difficult to get with the "twin towers" at times.
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Re: LA Positional Analysis: PF (Trodgers)

Postby trodgers on Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:11 am

A few thoughts:

1: I don't know why we'd move McRoberts or Hill. Both are cheap bigs who can do the job. If we trade Pau, why include another big? If we move Hill and Pau, we're crushed at Center depth.

2. I'm fine with McRoberts's game, and I think he can do well with more consistent PT, but from what I've seen (admittedly, one season with LA and limited minutes), I don't think he's anything like LO. He plays by the basket, he's a garbage man, and he makes good passes when he's in the halfcourt set. His playmaking/decision-making is atrocious in transition. Honestly the worst I've seen since, say, Slava Medvedenko. I don't get the LO comparison. Also, he has never averaged over 7.4 PPG, so I don't know about the 10-15 a night claim. Maybe if he were starting and we had another shooter on the floor it could work out. Or maybe he just played atrociously last year.
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Re: LA Positional Analysis: PF (Trodgers)

Postby trodgers on Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:24 am

I sure did have a mistake in my coding there for the Hustle Efficiency. Update:
High to low: Hill>Gasol>McBob>Murphy

Overall Ratings Altered:
Kevin Love 103
Blake Griffin 100
LaMarcus Aldridge 99
Pau Gasol 97
Chris Bosh 87
Dirk Nowitzki 85
Hill 81 (on the season, but 97 with LA)
McRoberts 67
Murphy 56
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Re: LA Positional Analysis: PF (Trodgers)

Postby therealdeal on Fri Jun 15, 2012 2:48 pm

Trading McRoberts makes sense because I think he can get us a good return. At one point he was rumored to draw enough interest for maybe OJ Mayo. I doubt that ever happens now, but his value is high enough to help bring in help at the point guard position where we need it. We've got two cheap options already in Hill and McRoberts (assuming Hill comes back reasonably) while we have insufficient help at the PG spot.
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Re: LA Positional Analysis: PF (Trodgers)

Postby trodgers on Sat Jun 16, 2012 4:38 pm

If McRoberts could get OJ Mayo, I'd do it, I guess. Other than that, I don't know what deals I'd make. It would almost certainly have to be big for small, and I don't really like that idea. Losing McRoberts considerably thins our front court...especially if Gasol goes, too.
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