Rodgers Report: 09/10 Stat Projections (2/3)

LA Lakers Season Prospectus
The Lakers look to begin the defense of their title in less than a week. Before the Finals, however, are the playoffs. And before the playoffs is the grind of an 82-game season. What happens during those 82 games is often a cloudy matter, a crisscrossed pattern of variables. So what follows is one man's attempt to shed some light into the gloom: a list of players, divided into three tiers [first one only right now], featuring stat projections and notes about player development.

THE STARTING FIVE
Derek Fisher – Point Guard
Last season, Fisher did much of what was expected from him. Very nice numbers from the arc, the charity stripe, and in terms of taking care of the ball were set against a subpar overall shooting percent and shoddy defensive results. Last season looked to be Fisher's final as the starter in Los Angeles. He has once again earned that distinction, however, and enters the regular season as the main man. His minute should dip to his lowest in years, and he may lose his starting job at some point, but he will be a big part of this club.
2008/09 Projections: 10.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.3 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 9.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.3 rpg
Accuracy: 95%
2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 26.5 minutes, 8.5 points, 3.0 assists, 2.1 rebounds

Kobe Bryant – Shooting Guard
Kobe did essentially what all fans thought he would. He tightened up his game, spent a bit more time on the defensive end, improved his ast/to ratio, and obliterated any memory of the suggestion that he cannot make his teammates better. Bryant is now 31 years old, sporting a ton of mileage, but he is in fantastic shape. The ball should be in his hands a bit less this year, allowing him to devote more time to moving without the ball, defending, and rebounding. One question mark will be Kobe's outside shooting, which is something he has struggled to do well when catching and shooting, as opposed to working for his own shot.
2008/09 Projections: 26.5 ppg, 5.2 apg, 5.9 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 26.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 5.2 rpg
Accuracy: 94%
2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 37.3 minutes, 26.5 points, 4.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds

Ron Artest – Small Forward
Artest brings an intriguing mix of skills to the Lakers' starting lineup. He can defend, shoot from distance, drive to the rim, rebound, pass, and dribble. Historically, he has struggled in terms of shot selection and keeping his cool. Throughout the preseason, it seems he has had difficulties picking times to be aggressive. Artest makes the Lakers a formidable defensive team, but his impact on the offense is every bit as important. He may be more a distributor and open-three sniper than he has in years past.
2009/10 Projections: 65 games, 36.7 minutes, 16.3 points, 3.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds

Pau Gasol – Power Forward
Gasol has truly defied expectations since coming to the Lakers. The first question was whether he would be able to be a scoring force on fewer looks. He has, by increasing his FG% from 51% before coming to LA to 59% and 57%, respectively, in his two seasons in LA. After his rebounds dipped to a dangerously low level for a Power Forward, Gasol showed dominant rebounding last season, posting the second highest total of his career, and averaging nearly a double double. A cause for concern, however, is Gasol's lack of rest of late. Since a long playoff run two seasons ago, the Olympics, another long season, and playing for his home country during the offseason, Gasol has shown signs of wear. A hamstring injury currently has his status in doubt for the first game of the regular season.
2008/09 Projections: 18.6 points, 3.3 assists, 7.4 rebounds
2008/09 Actual: 18.9 points, 3.5 assists, 9.6 rebounds
Accuracy: 90%
2009/10 Projections: 73 games, 36.5 minutes, 19.0 points, 4.0 assists, 9.4 rebounds

Andrew Bynum – Center
While Bynum has put to bed any fears that he is a bust, he has struggled to answer other charges, including his history of injuries and his love of offense and seeming disinterest toward rebound and defense. He could simply take or leave a good night on the glass so long as he gets his touches. That could be a problem going forward. But after tying for the team lead in scoring during the preseason, and towering over most opposition, Bynum's offensive prowess is going to push those questions to the back of people's minds, at least for some time.
2008/09 Projections: 13.4 ppg, 1.8 apg, 9.8 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 14.3 ppg, 1.4 apg, 8.0 rpg
Accuracy: 84%
2009/10 Projections: 63 games, 29.5 minutes, 15.1 points, 1.3 assists, 8.1 rebounds

THE BENCH MOB
Jordan Farmar – Point Guard
Entering last season Jordan Farmar had to be thinking he was the heir apparent at the Point Guard spot for the Lakers. As Derek Fisher ages and slows, the Lakers continue to look forward to that next rock of stability, the likes of which they have had running the show for years. Yet after turning in his worst season in the league, Farmar is no longer obviously that guy. Currently pushed by a much more athletic Shannon Brown who is every bit the shooter Farmar is, Farmar has not shown the defensive capacity on a regular basis to warrant the title of starter. A strong preseason may have him licking his lips, hoping simultaneously to win the starting role for years to come and secure a longterm deal in the very near future.
2008/09 Projections: 10.4 ppg, 3.1 apg, 2.6 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 6.4 ppg, 2.4 apg, 1.8 rpg
Accuracy: 69%
2009/10 Projections: 73 games, 16.3 mpg, 6.2 ppg, 2.4 apg, 1.7 rpg

Sasha Vujacic – Shooting Guard
People see what they want to see when it comes to Vujacic. Some look at the decreased FG% and 3pt%, the drop in points per game, and the increased fouls thirty feet from the basket. They declare him soft, a boneheaded Point Guard who cannot create. Others see the excellent assist to turnover ratio, the knockdown FT%, the all out effort on defense, and do not terribly mind the 36% three point shooting. They declare him a guy who protects the ball, who plays hard, and who can hit the three. Depending upon what he sees, coach Phil Jackson can have a short leash with Sasha now the bench is deeper than ever. Look for good things from Sasha, as he rebounds from a slightly down shooting season.
2008/09 Projections: 8.4 ppg, 1.1 apg, 2.2 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 5.8 ppg, 1.4 apg, 1.7 rpg
Accuracy: 75%
2009/10 Projections: 77 games, 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg, 1.4 apg, 1.8 rpg

Lamar Odom – Small Forward
Odom off the bench is one of the NBA's greatest luxuries. A streaky shooter, fantastic rebounder, good ball handler, good passer, who truly creates mismatches, Odom thrived in his role off the bench and sliding into the starting lineup when needed. He added some defensive toughness and opportunistic shotblocking last season to become one of the best sixth men in the game. He will not slow down this season after signing a new contract, one that could run through to the end of his basketball career.
2008/09 Projections: 9.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 7.0 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 11.3 ppg, 2.6 apg, 8.2 rpg
Accuracy: 86%
2009/10 Projections: 73 games, 30.0 mpg, 11.8 points, 2.7 assists, 7.9 rebounds

Luke Walton– Power Forward
Although Luke Walton may wind up playing more minutes than the other backup bigs (Odom aside), he will likely see his fewest minutes since his second season in the NBA. Coming off a dreadful season and facing injury concerns during preseason, Walton could find himself passed over by either Morrison or simply unable to crack the Forward rotation behind Artest, Odom, and Gasol. Surely, this is the darkest news in the history of the Walton household, at least since the 1990 season.
2008/09 Projections: 6.6 ppg, 2.7 apg, 3.5 rpg
2008/08 Actual: 5.0 ppg, 2.8 apg, 2.7 rpg
Accuracy: 83%
2009/10 Projections: 66 games, 16 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 2.6 apg, 2.6 rpg

DJ Mbenga – Center
Congo Cash is a curious player. He combines a great physique and incredible athleticism with almost no polish whatsoever. He has surely improved a great deal since entering the league, however, as evidenced by the eight to twelve foot jumper he developed last season. When Mbenga positions himself properly, he is a shotblocking force, as evidenced in his seven multiple block games in just 23 appearances last season (and seven in a preseason game). While no offensive force, he does have the aforementioned jumper and the ability to stuff the ball even in traffic. Oddly, despite his athleticism he is strangely absent from the glass at both ends. Mbenga is likely to see the most NBA action of his career this season.
2008/09 Projections: 2.3 ppg, 0.2 apg, 1.6 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 2.7 ppg, 0.4 apg, 1.3 rpg
Accuracy: 72%
2009/10 Projections: 54 games, 13.5 mpg, 4.4 ppg, 0.6 apg, 2.2 rpg


Last year's projections:
lakers-blogs/stat-projections-t103253.html

great.........

I'm working on this right now. Starters will be posted in about an hour, perhaps less.

Good stuff so far. If these stats pan out, my only worry (a small one) is Fisher's minutes. I'd much rather him at 20 - 22. Save the legs for the playoffs and get Farmar / Brown more experience. We're gonna need a rested Fisher and more from Farmar / Brown this post season.

I'd say this seems pretty accurate but I don't think Artest will average 16 per game. And based on preseason, I'd say he can get between 5-6 assists/game.

wow, that is crazy on how all your projections you were so close last year

so why so many injuries to this team in your predictions or most of our starters not playing close to 75 games ?

icencream27 wrote:so why so many injuries to this team in your predictions or most of our starters not playing close to 75 games ?

The player's injury history, especially in recent years, plays a factor in that. In Fisher's case, it's actually a bit of an age issue.

Last three years, games missed:
Gasol: 1, 16, 23
Kobe: 0, 0, 5
Fisher: 0, 0, 0
Artest: 13, 25, 12
Bynum: 32, 47, 0

I think you are a little under on Bynum. Because Kobe, Pau, Odom and soon Artest will be proven, Phil Jackson will give Bynum the nod a lot this year. If Bynum playing could cut minutes for Pau, I think Phil will play Bynum. I predict Bynum will be 17ppg, 9rpg, 2.5bpg, 60%fg

Biz wrote:I'd say this seems pretty accurate but I don't think Artest will average 16 per game. And based on preseason, I'd say he can get between 5-6 assists/game.

Great projections T. Rodgers. I think it's all right on point. I do agree with the above, though re: Artest. I think from the reluctance I've seen so far from Artest to really put his stamp on the offense Ron will err on the side of caution and take a dip in scoring in order to fit in with the team and find his spots. There will be a pretty decent learning curve for him about where and when it's best to go for his own.

So far I love his passing. It's every bit as good and even better than I anticipated. I think we're looking at a very selfless Ron for the majority of this season and I expect him to drop in scoring down to about 13 a game but his assists and rebounding will be higher than in the past. Look for him to continue his strong SPG stats.

I agree with the assessment of Bynum. I think 15 and 8 sounds right on the money. He simply doesn't care enough about rebounding to get near double digits IMO.

I'm also concerned about Gasol's wear and tear over the past couple seasons and summers. I hope he takes his time coming back from that hammy. No use making things worse just to be out there. I'd rather he takes some time off and comes back at 100%. He's the guy who seems most at risk to get a nagging injury.

Nice points, guys. While I'd like to be wrong about Bynum, I think there's too much offense generally and he is likely to struggle with injuries at some point this season, so I'll stick with the numbers as projected until he proves me wrong.

As for Artest getting 5-6 assists, I'm quite dubious. He's only once averaged above 3.7 in a season. I'd be absolutely shocked if he managed to hit that. Part of what's going on with him now is being passive and less assertive with his offensive game. Once he falls into a groove, he'll put up more shots.

BTW, 2nd stringers coming up tomorrow.

2009/10 Projections: 63 games, 29.5 minutes, 15.1 points, 1.3 assists, 8.1 rebounds

i hope Andrew won't miss too many games....

and his foul trouble will make his minutes limited

You know, Bynum has averaged 28.8 and 28.9 mpg the past two seasons.

So far, the most difficult thing has been calculating mpg for some of the subs. In fact, I'm at the bookstore and I see I've left my projection spreadsheet on my other computer. Projections will have to wait until tonight.

trodgers wrote:

As for Artest getting 5-6 assists, I'm quite dubious. He's only once averaged above 3.7 in a season. I'd be absolutely shocked if he managed to hit that. Part of what's going on with him now is being passive and less assertive with his offensive game. Once he falls into a groove, he'll put up more shots.

I think it will happen. Artest has never had anywhere near this kind of talent to play with. He has always been counted on to do a lot of scoring. Here he's at the lower end of the offensive totem pole. He knows it's his job to feed the post (he's the best passing small out there with the bigs) and that's where most of the offense will happen. Kobe also needs the rock.

Artest definitely needs to get more aggressive and less hesitant in his own scoring but I think he has a very natural and real deference going on here for the other offensive weapons on the squad. In the last game for example I saw him get string together four assists in a very short time and it was quite natural and easy for him. He was also the recipient of a nice assist or two. It's a sharing offense and I'm seeing him fitting quite well into the team concept. In the past he's had a different mentality and he's had a very different role. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him shoot up to 5 assists a game here. He certainly has the passing ability and unselfishness to do so from everything I've seen so far this pre-season.

Part Two of Three now posted.

I don't think Artest is going to average that many points.

And 118ppg for the team? That seems a bit high considering we haven't factored in Brown, Morrison(a shooter), and Powell

Azndude2190 wrote:I don't think Artest is going to average that many points.

We'll see. He's definitely not hitting his stride offensively at this point, but that is down from the past few seasons, and just above his career average.

And 118ppg for the team? That seems a bit high considering we haven't factored in Brown, Morrison(a shooter), and Powell[/quote]
Keep in mind almost no one is playing all 82 games in the projections. The Lakers will not average 118 ppg according to my projections. For instance, if you take the players on the team prior to the trade, the Lakers "averaged" 116.3 per game if you just add up everyone's PPG. If you include the other players after the trade, it increases to 120.8.

Azndude2190 wrote:I don't think Artest is going to average that many points.

And 118ppg for the team? That seems a bit high considering we haven't factored in Brown, Morrison(a shooter), and Powell

If you account for games played, they only average 103. Last season we averaged almost 107 a game

What I did was multiply each player's ppg by the number of games he predicted they would play. I then divided that number by 82. Since not ever player will play every in every game, you have to account for them not contributing when they aren't there.


I also noticed that both Powell and Brown are missing, so the average should go up a little bit

Yeah I mean that'd be great if we could actually put that many points on the board, game in and game out...but we'll see.

I agree about Kobe though, I see Kobe scoring less.His assists per game, rebound per game, steals per game, blocks per game should all be up this season.

As for the rest of the starters I would subtract 1ppg off of each one minus Fisher.

I know LO is our official sixth man of the bench, but I see Farmar possibly contending with him for that spot---at least this year, if for the only reason that it is a contract year and the likelihood of him playing really good is really high(i.e Ariza, Sasha, Walton).Hell I wouldn't be surprised if Phil let him in the rotation before Shannon or even gave him the starting position at the end of the season.

And finally, I'm a Sasha homer so I naturally think he's gonna do better than what you put him down for.

Rodgers Report: 09/10 Stat Retrospective

A look back at the projections.


THE STARTING FIVE

Derek Fisher – Point Guard

2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 26.5 minutes, 8.5 points, 3.0 assists, 2.1 rebounds

2009/10 Actual: 82 games, 27.2 minutes, 7.5 points, 2.5 assists, 2.1 rebounds

Fisher performed roughly as I'd thought. His poor shooting, even poorer than I'd anticipated, had him coming up about 1 point short of projections.

Kobe Bryant – Shooting Guard

2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 37.3 minutes, 26.5 points, 4.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds

2009/10 Actual: 73 games, 38.8 minutes, 27.0 points, 5.0 assists, 5.4 rebounds

Kobe was right about where I'd projected. His injury was a shame because he was shooting so well early in the season. He might have blown up these projections a bit had it not been for the accumulated effects. I like seeing him inch closer to 5 assists and 6 boards.

Ron Artest – Small Forward

2009/10 Projections: 65 games, 36.7 minutes, 16.3 points, 3.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds

2009/10 Actual: 77 games, 33.8 minutes, 11.0 points, 3.0 assists, 4.3 rebounds

Injuries were a drag for Artest, but as you can see, he play significantly more than I'd projected. It could be that he played through pain. That would account for more games but lower stats. I don't see him hitting 5-6 assists at any point for the Lakers, but I do think he'll rebound better and add another point or two to his average going forward.

Pau Gasol – Power Forward

2009/10 Projections: 73 games, 36.5 minutes, 19.0 points, 4.0 assists, 9.4 rebounds

2009/10 Actual: 65 games, 37.0 minutes, 18.3 points, 3.4 assists, 11.3 rebounds

Gasol mystifies me. 11+ boards? Insane. Otherwise, just what we would expect.

Andrew Bynum – Center

2009/10 Projections: 63 games, 29.5 minutes, 15.1 points, 1.3 assists, 8.1 rebounds

2009/10 Actual: 65 games, 30.4 minutes, 15.0 points, 1.1 assists, 8.3 rebounds

Who knows AB? Apparently my stat projection formula. I want to see more assists from Bynum, but if he can be a black hole on offense and still shoot a good % while playing good D, I'm okay with that. He was one of only 18 players to average 15/8. Not bad.