Rodgers Report: 10/11 Stat Projections

Holding this space.

Point Guard
Derek Fisher: 80 games, 24.8 mpg, 7.4 points, 2.4 assists, 1.8 rebounds
Steve Blake: 77 games, 24.0 mpg, 6.5 points, 4.2 assists, 2.0 rebounds

Shooting Guards
Bryant 77 games, 37.3 mpg, 25.0 pts, 4.9 ast, 5.5 reb
Brown 67 games, 18.1 mpg, 7.6 pts, 1.2 ast, 1.9 reb
Vujacic 72 games, 14.0 mpg, 4.6 pts, 1.0 ast, 1.9 reb
Ebanks 41 games, 4.4 mpg, 1.7 pts, 0.3 ast, 0.8 reb

Small Forward
Artest 70 games, 33.9 mpg, 12.3 pts, 3.1 ast, 4.5 reb
Barnes 77 games, 15.4 mpg, 5.2 pts, 1.2 ast, 3.1 reb
Walton 48 games, 6.3 mpg, 1.7 pts, 0.9 ast, 0.8 reb

Power Forward
Gasol 69 games, 36.0 mpg, 18.7 pts, 3.2 ast, 10.3 reb
Odom 79 games, 30.5 mpg, 10.9 pts, 3.4 ast, 9.2 reb
Caracter 52 games, 7.0 mpg, 1.6 pts, 0.2 ast, 1.3 reb

Center
Bynum 58 games, 28.9 mpg, 13.9 pts, 1.1 ast, 8.0 reb
Ratliff 42 games, 14.4 mpg, 3.2 pts, 0.4 ast, 2.7 reb

I don't think Blake will average that many assists per game since LO is gonna be doing some facilitating as well with the second unit. Bynum's not gonna average that many rebounds either more in the 6.5 to 7.5 range and Lamar will definitely be a double digit rebounder at season's end

rest looks good

Last year's projections:

http://www.clublakers.com/lakers-blogs/rodgers-report-stat-projections-t116569-20.html

Some good questions/points.

10+ ppg for Shannon: In the past ten seasons, no wing coming off the bench has approached 10 PPG. Shannon is only a decent scorer. He won't do it.

Blake's assists: Blake has one of the better assist rates in the NBA over the past few years. It would be in the top 100 all-time. He has, in this preseason, handed out assists at a rate much higher than any other Laker. We'll see what happens. The triangle is notorious for slowing down assist rates. I've taken these things into consideration.

Bynum's boards: I don't know why you'd put Bynum in the 6.5 rebound range. At his career rebounding rate, he'd have to play in 20-24 minutes per game to post those numbers. 7.5 is fine; it's within 10% of my projection.

Odom on the glass: he has averaged 10 boards twice in his career, and he needed 36+ MPG both times. Not sure that will happen. Now, it could...depending upon Bynum's, Gasol's, and Ratliff's health.

Why does Artest miss so many games?

therealdeal wrote:Why does Artest miss so many games?

I don't know what the NBA average is, but I will say this: playing 70 games sure doesn't seem like missing a lot. Artest missed 5, 13, and 25 over the past three. In his past 9 seasons, he has played in more than 70 games only three times.

^ Interesting. For whatever reason I thought that 70 was a lower amount than it should be.

How did you project that Sasha is going to play more than Shannon and Pau playing 69 games? And since Kobe's minutes are going to be limited to start the season, I don't think he'll play 39 min a game. Plus if the bench plays like they are expected, he may sit out many 4th quarters as he did in the 2008-2009 season.

TT24 wrote:How did you project that Sasha is going to play more than Shannon and Pau playing 69 games? And since Kobe's minutes are going to be limited to start the season, I don't think he'll play 39 min a game. Plus if the bench plays like they are expected, he may sit out many 4th quarters as he did in the 2008-2009 season.

Good questions.

Sasha: he's playing more GAMES according to those numbers. Why not? Sasha has missed 36 games combined over the past five seasons. No indication that Shannon has the ability to stay healthy for another full season with heavy minutes. When you see something like this, where there is little evidence to go on, it's just more regression to the mean. You personally can bet on Shannon going 82 because he did last year, but the numbers speak against that: the over/under for players who saw at least 15 minutes per game was about 71 games last season.

Pau at 69 games? Look at his last six seasons. He has missed 17, 1, 16, 23, 2, and 26.

I don't have Kobe playing 39 mpg. I have him playing his 2nd lowest minutes in the past decade.

Bryant 77 games, 37.3 mpg, 25.0 pts, 4.9 ast, 5.5 reb

He's probably one of the few players I like to check stats on. Looks like he might pull these numbers off in close to 4-5 minutes less per game, but I would imagine this is pretty darn close.

Kobe has been remarkably effective this season in reduced numbers.

Halfway there (or a bit more):

Point Guard
I project:
Derek Fisher: 80 games, 24.8 mpg, 7.4 points, 2.4 assists, 1.8 rebounds
Steve Blake: 77 games, 24.0 mpg, 6.5 points, 4.2 assists, 2.0 rebounds

Mid-point:
Fisher: 27.1 minutes, 6.6 points, 2.8 assists, 2.0 boards
Blake: 19.7 minutes, 4.5 points, 1.9 assists, 2.1 boards
Blake isn't playing as much as I'd anticipated, and I think i envisioned him initiating the offense more with the second unit. That's not happening.

Shooting Guards
Bryant 77 games, 37.3 mpg, 25.0 pts, 4.9 ast, 5.5 reb
Brown 67 games, 18.1 mpg, 7.6 pts, 1.2 ast, 1.9 reb
Ebanks 41 games, 4.4 mpg, 1.7 pts, 0.3 ast, 0.8 reb

Kobe: 33.2 minutes, 25.0, 4.8, 5.1
-Doing it in 4 fewer minutes. Impressive.
Brown: 18.6 minutes, 9.6 points, 1.1 ast, 2.2 reb
-Scoring more than I'd imagined.
Ebanks: 6.0 minutes, 3.0 points, 0.1 ast, 1.4 reb
-Tough to project these guys, but he has been a pleasant surprise when on the court.

Small Forward
Artest 70 games, 33.9 mpg, 12.3 pts, 3.1 ast, 4.5 reb
Barnes 77 games, 15.4 mpg, 5.2 pts, 1.2 ast, 3.1 reb
Walton 48 games, 6.3 mpg, 1.7 pts, 0.9 ast, 0.8 reb

Artest: 28 mpg, 8.3 points, 2.1 ast, 3.0 reb
-Tough to say anyone saw this coming. Minutes down, but he's starting to look good again.
Barnes: 20.6 mpg, 7.4 pts, 1.7 ast, 4.8 reb
-Probably the nicest surprise of any player this season. He won't hit 77 games though.
Walton: 8.4 mpg, 1.8 pts, 1.1 ast, 1.3 reb
-I suppose he's right about where he should be. And he might even play more games.

Power Forward
Gasol 69 games, 36.0 mpg, 18.7 pts, 3.2 ast, 10.3 reb
Odom 79 games, 30.5 mpg, 10.9 pts, 3.4 ast, 9.2 reb
Caracter 52 games, 7.0 mpg, 1.6 pts, 0.2 ast, 1.3 reb

Gasol: 37.4 min, 18.6 pts, 3.8 ast, 10.6 reb
Odom: 33.8 mpg, 15.6 pts, 2.9 ast, 9.6 reb
-These numbers will continue to decrease, but I cannot see the PPG dropping all the way to 11.
Caracter: 5.7 mpg, 2.4 pts, 0.2 ast, 1.1 reb
-Looking good. Scoring better than I would have thought.

Center
Bynum 58 games, 28.9 mpg, 13.9 pts, 1.1 ast, 8.0 reb
Ratliff 42 games, 14.4 mpg, 3.2 pts, 0.4 ast, 2.7 reb

Bynum: 24.2 mpg, 11.0 pts, 0.8 ast, 7.3 reb
-His numbers from this month are eerily similar to my projections. I think the minutes will creep up and things will fall in line with the projections. Wish he'd hand out more assists.

Ratliff: 8.3 mpg, 0.3 pts, 0.4 ast, 1.6 reb
-Awkward.

looking good so far, seems like you are pretty much on point.

trodgers wrote:Point Guard
Derek Fisher: 80 games, 24.8 mpg, 7.4 points, 2.4 assists, 1.8 rebounds
Steve Blake: 77 games, 24.0 mpg, 6.5 points, 4.2 assists, 2.0 rebounds

Fisher finished at 6.8 points, 2.7 assists, 1.7 rebounds
Blake finished at 4.0 points, 2.2 assists, and 2.0 rebounds

Two thoughts: Fisher faded more quickly than I'd thought he would, or maybe it's just that he shot so poorly from two. Blake's transition to the triangle was destructive to his game.

Shooting Guards
Bryant 77 games, 37.3 mpg, 25.0 pts, 4.9 ast, 5.5 reb
Brown 67 games, 18.1 mpg, 7.6 pts, 1.2 ast, 1.9 reb
Vujacic 72 games, 14.0 mpg, 4.6 pts, 1.0 ast, 1.9 reb
Ebanks 41 games, 4.4 mpg, 1.7 pts, 0.3 ast, 0.8 reb

Kobe finished at 25.3, 4.7, 5.1. Not bad.
Shannon finished at 8.7, 1.2, 1.9. He scored better than I'd thought he would (but he was a gunner!), did exactly what I'd imagined otherwise.
Sasha was OUT.
Ebanks posted 3.1, 0.1, 1.4. Tough to project these guys who don't play much, but I guess he outperformed my projections.

Small Forward
Artest 70 games, 33.9 mpg, 12.3 pts, 3.1 ast, 4.5 reb
Barnes 77 games, 15.4 mpg, 5.2 pts, 1.2 ast, 3.1 reb
Walton 48 games, 6.3 mpg, 1.7 pts, 0.9 ast, 0.8 reb

Artest finished at 8.5, 2.1, 3.3. A disappointment anyway you slice it.
Barnes's injury affected his game, but he finished at 6.7, 1.3, 4.3, outperforming my projections.
Walton...sigh. His 1.7, 1.2, 1.2 was better than I'd projected.

Power Forward
Gasol 69 games, 36.0 mpg, 18.7 pts, 3.2 ast, 10.3 reb
Odom 79 games, 30.5 mpg, 10.9 pts, 3.4 ast, 9.2 reb
Caracter 52 games, 7.0 mpg, 1.6 pts, 0.2 ast, 1.3 reb

Pau finished at 18.8, 3.3, 10.2. DOMINANCE on my part.
Odom was good for 14.4, 3.0, 8.7. Not bad.
Caracter averaged 2.0, 0.2, 1.1. Pretty close.

Center
Bynum 58 games, 28.9 mpg, 13.9 pts, 1.1 ast, 8.0 reb
Ratliff 42 games, 14.4 mpg, 3.2 pts, 0.4 ast, 2.7 reb

[/quote][/quote]
Bynum played in 54 games, averaged 11.3, 1.4, 9.4. He admittedly changed his role, however, to become less a scorer and more a rebounder and defender.
Ratliff played 70 minutes on the season. Yikes.