Skyblog: Kobe trade scenarios

skyblog
October 12, 2007

After The Love Has Gone

Make an offer we can’t refuse and Kobe Bryant is yours. Two years ago that was unthinkable. Today it’s a given.

Bryant has never been so close to his goal: out of LA and playing for a contender. Smelling the finish line, Kobe has transparently suggested that it’s best to deal him now while teams are still in camp and can adjust. All true but the Lakers have so many needs to fill in a Kobe deal that a quick resolution is doubtful. Add Bryant’s no trade clause and the brakes slam down.

Dealing Kobe begins with a franchise defining choice – get young players or above the line talent? LA is an above the line town, the Lakers have always had a superstar. They’d jump on a trade for Dwyane Wade or Dwight Howard but it’s highly unlikely that a life preserver will be tossed their way.

If the Lakers can’t get a name in trade they will want to clear a max slot for the 2010 free agent gold rush when LeBron, Wade and Chris Bosh all have player options. Any Kobe trade offer that includes an aging vet with a contract that runs past 2010 is rejected. Dr. Buss won’t approve a trade that ends both of his chances to acquire a name talent.

Compounding the decision is that the Lakers have great difficulty making one these days. Build around Bryant or keep the youth? Both. No doubt that will be their answer to what they want in a Kobe trade. We want the walking ATM that fills the courtside seats, luxury suites and city buzz. We also want young talent. And draft picks. The waitress hands them a menu and they say yes. Choosing a single path is not the front office fortė. Yet a single path may be all that they are offered.

Those offers would begin with Kobe’s list of five preferred teams: Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Chicago and New York.

Phoenix

Amare Stoudemire will be atop the Laker wish list, but the Suns would be lilliputian without him. The west goes through Tim Duncan. So the Suns move on to Shawn Marion and Leandro Barbosa. The Lakers probably ask for the unprotected Atlanta #1 next year in a Suns deal, but Phoenix is unlikely to give it up.

Predicted LA reaction: They’d rather have max slot cap room in summer 2010 than Shawn Marion at a max extension. Phil Jackson has sought Marion for the triangle in the past, but if LA rejected Marion for Odom they reject him for Kobe as well. Deal dies unless Marion can be converted into something else via 3-way. Problem there is no one else wants to trade value for Marion at max. Even if Phoenix said ok we'll add the Atlanta #1, I stil see LA saying no. Marion is not worth max and losing the 2010 max slot.

Dallas

Mark Cuban has made it clear that Dirk Nowitzki is untouchable. He’s offered Josh Howard and Jason Terry, Buss rejected it, possibly because Terry’s contract runs through 2011. A counter offer of Howard, Devin Harris and Trenton Hassell avoids the 2010 concern.

Predicted LA reaction: Worth considering but they hold out for better.

Houston

Tracy McGrady works straight across contractually. LA gets their name and their choice of Rocket extras on an overcrowded roster that has to shed players to get to 15. Shane Battier, Bonzi Wells, Chuck Hayes, Kirk Snyder and Luther Head are all players the Lakers have asked about in past trade talks.

Predicted LA reaction: This has everything the Lakers would seemingly want. The name, with a bonus they love, a max contract that ends in 2010. Can let TMac go if they sign a name in free agency or re-sign him if they don’t. Also get quality role players they like. But McGrady’s back trouble looms, along with making Houston an instant contender.

Chicago

The Lakers have said no Deng no deal. Kobe has said he wants to play with Deng. Paxson wants to keep Deng. Someone has to give and it’s not LA. Every deal without Deng is rejected. So the Bulls either pass or ante up with Deng, Gordon and PJ Brown (in for contract matching purposes). Brown would be re-signed to a three-year deal with just the first year guaranteed at 10M, functionally a last year player.

Predicted LA reaction: Deng is a great fit in the triangle and with the Bynum development timeline. Not a name but his blossoming talent could make him a name in time. The Lakers are rumored to want Deng and Hinrich, can’t see Chicago going for that. If Pax counters with Gordon instead of Hinrich, hard to see LA saying no. Complication is Gordon’s contract demands for a 70M extension. The Bulls have other options on a very deep squad (maybe Noah but not Ty Thomas), so plenty of room for negotiation – provided Deng is in the deal.

New York

The Knicks have fires of their own, but Kobe in the city gets Isiah on the phone. David Lee would be the first Laker request, superb fit as a triangle 4. Jamal Crawford would be a logical next step but 2011 contract. Zach and Curry same thing. Forces a 3-way, never a good sign in scenarios.

Predicted LA reaction: Up to you to put a 3-way together and bring it to us. If Lee and quality are in there with no 2011 contracts we’re interested. Tall order for Isiah.

So first glance at the five teams, two can provide a deal LA could theoretically accept, Chicago and Houston. Phoenix would have to give Amare and that doesn’t make sense for them. New York has to go 3-way. Dallas doesn’t have enough impact to offer. If Chicago refuses to part with Deng they are out. Houston may be the only one left standing. Though the Lakers could decide to pass on McGrady’s back and making a team in the west a title contender.

As always with trades, the most likely deal is none. Kobe isn’t leaving until LA gets a deal they like. Chicago is my odds-on favorite, but that’s on Paxson. As to when, teams are reluctant to deal before the season begins. Clubs want to see what their roster is capable of first. Optimism reigns in early Ocotber, realism hits at the deadline. A team has to truly know they need Kobe to win a ring to make what I call the offer of pain. A deal that hurts but helps you get to the goal.

Kobe’s days as a Laker are ending, but when could still take a year even two. Some rejoice at a Kobe exit out of diva fatigue. I don’t. In the past fifty years of NBA finals only twice has the winner had no Hall of Famers on the roster. Seattle in 1979 with Dennis Johnson and Gus Williams dominating in the backcourt and Detroit’s suffocating defense in 2004. Not the skill sets this Laker front office values.

Kobe Bryant, ex-Laker. Just a matter of when.

Something happened along the way, what used to be happy was sad…something happened along the way and yesterday was all we had…after the love has gone. Cue Don Myrick’s sax solo.

as i said in the other post..

jerry buss wont part ways with Bynum for J kidd..

why trade kobe for ...above

LOL !@(*@()$#&(#&$^#&$^#&^*#%#&*$&^*&^#&!&*()!@!_*(_)@*#(@)#

LA is going to be a dangerous city(not in basketball terms)

Buss said every offer to date for Bryant has been laughable and "not ever under consideration."

:(

If Kobe leaves, we won't care about the triangle or whatever because Phil will leave instantly or after the season.

Bulls offer Gordon, Thomas, Noc. We need another small forward? Gordon is a scorer but gives you little else. Thomas could be a stud or a dud.

Dallas offer of Terry and Howard: You get a 27 year old guy who made the all star team and averaged 19-7 last year. Terry can shoot lights put, but contract is awful.

Phx offers Marion and Barbosa and a first: Arguably getting the most talent in return.

Great write-up and right on the money. Making any Kobe deal even tougher is the fact that Buss and Kupchak got swindled once on the Shaq trade, and they won't let it happen again. Fool me once, etc. So they wait it out as long as they can.

But Chicago won't blink first. Paxson's done a great job putting together a future contender, and won't sacrifice the centerpiece of that (Deng) for an aging, temperamental diva. Does LA take a deal centered around the Bulls' other pieces? Gordon, Thabo and a resigned PJ are not enough. Seems to me that, if Deng is off the table, Paxson would have to be willing to part with Hinrich as well, and that would probably be too much to pay for Kobe.

And TMac can't even really be considered a lateral move. He's been on subpar teams before and they've usually ended up in the lottery. Even with Yao, he can't get out of the first round - so what's he going to do with Odom? Factor in his age, chronic back problems, etc, and the Lakers pass on this deal.

No team is going to give up their young stud for Kobe. So Bosh, Howard, Wade, Amare are all out of the running. Who does that leave that would excite Buss, and make the Lakers both a box office draw and a winner on the court? Someone's going to have to get really creative here.

Do we really need to worry about triangle fits with PJ most likely abandoning ship with Kobe?

TooSexyForMyShirt wrote:If Kobe leaves, we won't care about the triangle or whatever because Phil will leave instantly or after the season.

Not according to emplay in his hoopsworld article:

emplay wrote:One last Laker note - don't count Coach Phil Jackson out. If LA can make a passable deal, Jackson would still consider his two-year extension just the same. If he is physically up to the task after two hip surgeries, there's a strong chance he'll re-sign.

If Kobe is traded during the season, I wouldn't be surprised if Phil tripped and fell on purpose.

Unless some high profile All-Stars are brought in this trade, I'm inclined to believe that Phil wouldn't even consider resigning.

No Kobe = No Phil = No Triangle.

I know emplay said what he said but i see no chance in hell Phil resigns if Kobe is gone. Hell, Kobe is the only reason he came back in the first place.

thisbjgz wrote:as i said in the other post..

jerry buss wont part ways with Bynum for J kidd..

why trade kobe for ...above

LOL !@(*@()$#&(#&$^#&$^#&^*#%#&*$&^*&^#&!&*()!@!_*(_)@*#(@)#

LA is going to be a dangerous city(not in basketball terms)

L.A.'s already a dangerous city.

That ain't nothing new.

Kobe WANTS to get traded, silly.

It was his call from the beginning.

People need to chill out, take a deep breath, and REALIZE it's Kobe's call...and Dr. Buss is making the right decision and listening to offers.

Plain & Simple.

I just don't see Houston as a Kobe destination. Unless Kobe is really enamored with the opportunity to play with Yao. Heck, I'm not sure Kobe takes that given his need to be the undisputed top dog. I'm sure he's thinking everyone will say he couldn't win without the best center in the league on his side...

I agree about Phoenix and Amare. For everyone who wants to argue this one, you have to look at the matchups in the playoffs. Each of the other top 4 teams in the West has an All-Star or HOF quality big man. Houston has Yao, Dallas has Dirk, SA has Duncan. Then suppose Boston gets its act together and makes it to the Finals from the East. Phoenix has to keep Amare to counter that. Then no trade for Marion instead unless the Suns throw in the Atlanta pick. The judgement to be made is whether Atlanta goes lottery again... If they don't, then the trade is probably not worth doing.

I agree about Dallas and New York not being viable.

So we're back to Chicago... Let the fun begin... Bring Gordon and Noah with Deng plus PJ Brown for the salary ballast. Don't bother giving Gordon an extension. Prepare to let him go when Crittenton is good enough to start. That could be a good future starting backcourt: Farmar and Crit. Pair them with Deng, Bynum and Noah and the Lakers might have something worth rooting for. The bad news of course is this is a 4 for 1 trade which would give the Lakers 17 players under contract. So they need to make one or more side moves, or cut two players whose guaranteed contracts they still have to pay for.

From Chicago's point of view, they still do well so I don't know what's their hangup about letting Deng go. Kobe gets to work with Hinrichs who will know how to get him the ball in the best spots. They'll have B.Wallace, Thomas, Nocioni and Sefalosha.

To make Chicago give up Deng, of course, the Lakers must give the impression the other teams have serious offers to make...

We're on a new adventure, boys and girls... Thanks Sky

I'd honestly rather have Deng and Gordon than Deng and Hinrich. Not only would Chicago not do Deng + Hinrich mostly likely, but I like our point guard spot in the future. I think both Crittenton and Farmar are going to be good players, Crittenton the better of the two. Gordon gives you a flashy guy who is fun to watch and helps put people in the seats, plus he fills a need... we have a hole at the 2 without Kobe.

If they offered Deng + Gordon + whatever we could throw in one of our extras if they want them (Cook for example), I don't see how we could turn it down if we're giving up on hopes of retaining Kobe.

blocks wrote:I know emplay said what he said but i see no chance in hell Phil resigns if Kobe is gone. Hell, Kobe is the only reason he came back in the first place.

After a Kobe-bashing book titled "The Last Season" I never expected Phil back to begin with, so I really have no idea whether Phil would stay or not, and I'm not going to predict that one way or the other. But I will say that if he feels healthy enough, I can think of about ten million rea$ons why he might agree to stay on for another few years, even if Kobe is gone.

fahrique wrote:After a Kobe-bashing book titled "The Last Season" I never expected Phil back to begin with, so I really have no idea whether Phil would stay or not, and I'm not going to predict that one way or the other. But I will say that if he feels healthy enough, I can think of about ten million rea$ons why he might agree to stay on for another few years, even if Kobe is gone.

And in addition to those 10 million reasons he'll have the bosses daughter urging him to stay. Moreover, if we got decent young talent in return for Kobe and Phil could win a title somewhere down the road with a young core of players that he helped coach there, he'd end all the talk about the kind of talent that he was blessed with. He would have molded those boys into men and would secure his place as perhaps the greatest coach of all time. In the end I think Phil's decision will boil down to health though.

lakers need to trade bynum before they trade kobe. this is getting ridiculous

hitokiriheero wrote:lakers need to trade bynum before they trade kobe. this is getting ridiculous

Lakers don't NEED to trade anybody.

They NEED to acquire some help. And if we need to do a trade to get help, we'll do it.

But we don't NEED to trade, what we NEED to do is improve the team.

id say let kobe walk and sign lebron in 2010....

There's another option that would provide plenty o' cap space in 2010. Actually, a boat load of cap in '09 and, if done right, cap in 2010 as well. It's the same option that gives them both the greatest possible chance of keeping Kobe AND time to evalute rooks and, based on the evaluation, determine a course.

It's called not doing a damned thing!

Waiting until next summer to make a move yields quite a few positive results. First, throw AB out there and give him AS MANY minutes as possible. We're not contending, and he's conditioned to handle it. Likewise, it's not like they need to worry about pissin' Kobe off. Put the kid out there, give both Farmar and Critt as many minutes as possible, give Ronny as many minutes as possible, and use the time to evaluate whether or not building around the young guys is a viable option. If Kobe's pissed that we're in rebuild mode, then treat the season as rebuild mode!

Based on the additional year of analysis under your belt, determine what you want to do with Odom (extend or watch his salary go bye-bye the next summer), figure out whether your going to build around the rooks, set expectations for AB's extention, and plan accordingly.

With Kwame gone next summer, Odom's salary off the books in '09, and Kobe's in '10 (if he walks), that's 50 mil available for LA to move in a direction of choice. Given an additional year of analysis, the choice will become easier to make. In the meantime, sit on your hands, remain patient, play the hell out'a the young guys, and plan accordingly. If a great deal comes along, jump on it.

There's no need to trade him just yet. He wants out? Fine, let him leave. In the meantime, let the young guys progress, clear your cap space for '09, plan on additional cap space in '10, AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE HIS MINUTES. Kobe has contractual options galore that protect HIS best interest... the FO should stop worrying about Kobe completely and start to protect their own best interests. Let him sit, land a lottery spot, and wait for the windfall from 50 mil worth of cap space cleared over the next few years. Do so and you might end up in one hell of a position come 2010... a position much better than the one you're currently in.

^^

If that's the case, that they do that then i'm done with the franchise. No integrity and Tanking is not what the Laker's are about. It's a shame fans have fallen into that mindset.

knm131 wrote:

hitokiriheero wrote:lakers need to trade bynum before they trade kobe. this is getting ridiculous

Lakers don't NEED to trade anybody.

They NEED to acquire some help. And if we need to do a trade to get help, we'll do it.

But we don't NEED to trade, what we NEED to do is improve the team.

Hmm...we need help and improvement, but we don't need a trade...sounds like Mitch's magic wand.

Somebody queue the JPEG.


But in all seriousness. Yes, trade Bynum, trade Odom, as long as you trade them before we trade Kobe. We could have gotten Kidd without giving up either of the best two players on our team (Kobe and Odom). How many teams could say that and not be more than willing to pull the trigger?

So, fans would have to wait until 2010?
Shall we accept mediocrity, trading Kobe Bryant just a few yrs after losing Shaq?


This is getting ridiculous. We're not the Clippers, but we're getting close.

2010, and then rebuilding for how many years? 7 more?

Good Luck, the Lakers/Laker fans. Be careful of what you wish for.