Western Conference Projected Seeding

Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby trodgers on Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:09 am

PROJECTED WINS - NBA Western Conference
I ran some projections on teams' current performance with last season's performance as an initial weight. It's not adjusted for strength of schedule or anything fun like that. It's just a rough and ready projection for how teams will likely do if nothing serious happens to the team's integrity between now and the end of the season.

I present the Western Conference seeding (w/ projected wins)...

1. LA Clippers 63
2. Oklahoma City 63
3. San Antonio 59
4. Memphis 56
5. Golden State 52
6. LA Lakers 44
7. Houston 43
8. Denver 43
out: Minnesota 41, Portland 40, Utah 39, etc.

http://blog.travisjrodgers.com/2012/12/31/nba-western-conference-projected-wins.aspx
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby Chillbongo on Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:37 pm

Clips with 63 projected? Wow.
If I'm correct the Lakeshow have not hit the 60 win threshold since the 3-peat era.

Regardless of my hope that the Clips don't succeed, I think both the Thunder & Clippers finish between 55-59 wins (long season, injuries/fatigue taken into account).

Also, I think the Lakers somehow hit 50. That means going 35-17. We gotta win 7/10 games. That means we can only lose about 1 game a week. It's doable. Can't have setbacks. January will be telling.
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby XXIV on Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:07 pm

^ We actually won 65 games during the 2008-2009 season.

It's crazy how the Clips are projected to win 63 games, but I think their level of play will take a dip in the near future. They're playing at an extremely high level but I don't think it's sustainable for the entire season. As for the Lakers I can't believe we may not break the 50 wins mark, hopefully we can go on a run and gather up some more Ws.
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby trodgers on Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:30 pm

It's a projection. It becomes increasingly more accurate with more data. It's still a bit early, but good rough estimate.
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby Chillbongo on Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:27 pm

Damn, forgot how dominant we were that season :jam2:

I miss Phil, Derek & Lamar. And maybe Sasha (he was a good luck charm).

I think the Lakers will win more than 44 bc I expect their production be better than first 24 games. Hopefully that differential will result in winning 50. 50 tends to be bottom half playoff seed in the west :man6: .
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby noobiew on Tue Jan 01, 2013 9:40 am

Damn, 44 wins only? even a starting lineup back in 2006 consists of Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Smush Parker, Brian Cook, Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown net and got us 45 wins that season lol
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby trodgers on Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:27 pm

Last ten years, 8 seed was 50 twice, 48, 46, 45, 44 three times, 43, and 42.
Average 45.4. First team out was 48, 46, 44, 43 twice, 42 twice, 41, 40, and 39. Average 42.8.
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby Chillbongo on Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:36 am

noobiew wrote:Damn, 44 wins only? even a starting lineup back in 2006 consists of Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Smush Parker, Brian Cook, Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown net and got us 45 wins that season lol


lol.

Well according to my 50 win plan, we just hit our "lose one game a quota"..... :man6: :bang:

...and Clips Rockets Nuggs up next.
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby trodgers on Sun Jan 06, 2013 12:11 pm

I'll post updates to this after games for today. Teams that have no game for today are adjusted:

1. LA Clippers 63 > 61
2. Oklahoma City 63 > 62
3. San Antonio 59 > 60

4. Memphis 56
5. Golden State 52 > 53
6. LA Lakers 44
7. Houston 43 > 46
8. Denver 43
out: Minnesota 41 > 40, Portland 40 > 42, Utah 39 > 39, etc.

Lakers have fallen at least one spot. Maybe two if they lose tonight. Not good.
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby Chillbongo on Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:05 pm

So the 7-8 seeds might fall into the 43 win threshold?

That's good for us. But that also means we need to win 29/50 remaining games.

I had a thought.....we fought back and almost beat arguably the 2nd best team in the league.

The game was ugly...and Kobe bailed us out. Even so, does that mean we have a chance? Can we ride Kobe into the playoffs, and hopefully have figured out the team thing by then?

Have others come to the conclusion that this roster "just won't work"?
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby trodgers on Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:32 pm

29/50 is something we can manage. Even 31/50 is not ridiculous. That would get us to 46 wins, and it would all but guarantee a spot in the playoffs.

The thing is we need to turn it around pretty quickly. If you toss out the Brown games, we're 14-13. If you include only the games since Nash returned, we're still only 3-3. Any way you slice it we haven't played like anything but a .500 team so far.
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Re: Western Conference Projected Seeding

Postby Chillbongo on Sun Jan 06, 2013 5:20 pm

^ I like our chances, but here's one caveat. We netted that record during the easy part of our schedule.t,

50 games left...more are on the road & against > .500 teams than the first 32.

Of course momentum & chemistry can nullify those hurdles.
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