Snakell Beast wrote:Doc - The Larry Coon quote only applies if we MAINTAIN a payroll that is under the luxury tax THROUGH the END of the 2014-2015 season. Remember, we have to have a roster for that season, and I find it unlikely that we will stay under the tax level, assuming we still A. Have Kobe, and B. Want to field a contender.
Present to me a scenario where we go over the luxury tax line, that doesn't involve Hill getting a fat bird right's contract.
1.) Resign or renounce the rights to Kobe and Pau to eliminate their cap holds. Same applies to any player we still have rights to. We don't have any RFA and we aren't paying the 32 million or 19 million dollar cap hold for Pau or Kobe. Add in the fact that we aren't allowed to sign free agents AND then sign Kobe and Pau with their bird rights, due to their cap holds. We can't go over the tax here.
2.) Use the remaining cap space to sign free agents. We can't spend more than what the cap is at, so we can't go over here.
3.) Use the Full MLE, which hard caps us at whatever the apron will be for that year. Still not close to luxury tax.
4.) Use the BAE, which also hard caps us at whatever the apron will be for that year. Still not close to the luxury tax.
Using the numbers this year.
Salary cap - 58.679
Luxury tax - 71.748
Apron - 75.748
We resign Kobe and maybe Pau (who knows with him) and use the rest of the cap space to sign free agents. Note we don't have to even use the cap space next season if we can't get the players we want. So hitting the tax might not even be an issue. Let's say we use the full cap space allotted....
58.679 + Full MLE (5.15) + BAE (2.016) = 65.845
We don't have anything else to spend and still under the tax by 6 million. That's given we use all the cap space, which wouldn't be smart if we aren't getting top tier players. I'd rather keep the cap space and move onto 2015 with it and go after the better FA class IMO.
The TAX isn't applied at the beginning of the season, it is applied AFTER THE LAST GAME of a team's season. If, as you advocate, the Lakers keep Hill and Blake and thus are over the Luxury tax after the last game of this season (2013-2014), then, if they are also over the tax threshold after the last game of either of the next two seasons (2014-2015 or 2015-2016), they will pay the repeater tax. So it is not IMPOSSIBLE.
I never said we won't be over the tax in 2015-2016. And again please show me a scenario where we go over the tax next season.
I already provided a scenario where we use all the resources we have to acquire players and still 6 million under the luxury tax with numbers from 2013-2014.
If you want to argue that the Lakers will do everything in their power to AVOID going over the luxury tax next season (which will be easy because they can POTENTIALLY have an almost empty payroll) that's fine...but to say that it is IMPOSSIBLE is inaccurate, and unless they are also under the tax level this year they only avoid the tax increase for one off season and have to worry about it again in the next free agent period (2015-2016) since there is NO WAY that Kobe and Pau are going to come back for WAY CHEAPER...unless, by WAY CHEAPER, you mean Kobe at 15 to 20 million and Pau at 10 to 12 million.
Show me the scenario where we go over.
If Pau and Kobe both come back at their cap holds 32 million and 19 million, it doesn't matter. We just have significantly less salary cap and the same options (full MLE and BAE) as before. We can't sign free agents with our cap space AND than sign Kobe and Pau with their bird rights, it's not allowed. No matter what Kobe and Pau come back for, it's still part of that 58.679 salary cap number they will be taking up.
So let's carry the max amount of salary over from the previous season (65.845 million). Use the full MLE, since that is all we will have, since we have all our cap space spent. The number jumps to 70.995. Still under the luxury tax number of 2013-2014. Pay increases on contracts could take us over that tax, but that hit is minimal. And who knows what the tax number will be in that year, so it might not even matter.
Our payroll will look like the Dallas Mavericks this season, who were in the same situation we will be in next year. The only exception being our salary figure will be 5 million less considering they signed Wright as a RFA his cap hold was less than 1 million giving them the freedom to sign him to a bigger deal and over the salary cap figure.
They aren't taking MLE level salaries here. AINT HAPPENING. If we really are going to reload with free agents, the most likely scenario is we lock in Kobe and Pau on 2 or 3 year deals FIRST, eliminating their cap holds with their real salary figure, then over pay for mid level free agents in the next two off seasons (to fill in the starting unit AROUND Kobe and Pau) and populate the rest of the roster with the MMLE and minimum contracts.
I never said they should take MLE level salaries. Why do we have to overpay for mid level free agents? We just got 5 players for 7 million this offseason. If we don't like the players that are available, we don't have to overpay for the ones that are. Just conserve the space and wait until the following season.
We won't have the MMLE, we will have the full MLE because we won't be over the tax line.
Even under this scenario, (the Lakers being under the tax level in 2014-2015) they will STILL be repeat offenders after the next season (2015-2016) if they really want to contend and thus, go over the luxury tax level adding as much talent as they can (most likely by trading our future draft picks unfortunately). The Lakers CAN deliberately avoid the repeater tax, but IMO it will hamstring their desire to build a contender for Kobe in his last few seasons.
We can deliberately avoid the repeater tax and build a contender, it's what the 22 other teams in the league that are under the tax are trying to do.
The only way to really go over the luxury tax is to have a RFA that we have to pay big money to. But even then, if we use the full MLE we are hard capped at 75 million anyway.
I don't get how we are going to go over the luxury tax level adding as much talent as possible, when are options in doing that are very limited. What's going to take us into luxury tax level is pay raises on contracts and using the MLE.
So the only way your argument is truly sound is if the Lakers completely move on from Kobe and Pau and rebuild the roster ENTIRELY over the next 2 or 3 free agency and draft periods. I find that HIGHLY unlikely, given that all of the LEGITIMATELY attractive free agents will re-sign with their current teams, many of which will probably extend their current contracts (ala Paul George or John Wall) and we basically mortgaged our drafts for Steve Nash.
No, that's not true at all. We can still keep Kobe and Pau maybe and still build a contender.
Why are you all about this repeater tax and then say it's highly unlikely we get attractive free agents? If we don't get the big time free agents, we aren't going to overpay for mid-level free agents and we won't have to worry about the tax. Not that it matters because resigning Kobe/Pau + Free agents falls under the 58 million salary cap.
We go over the tax by...
1.) Contract increases ever year for certain players
2.) Signing a RFA to big money
3.) Making a trade to take us over the tax
4.) Using the MLE multiple years to take us over.
But it's all moot, considering we will most definitely use the Full MLE both years. We get hard capped at 4 million over the tax. 4 million x repeater tax is nothing to the Lakers.
As far as the Jordan Hill and Lamar Odom comparison, they aren't mutually exclusive. I am not arguing dumping Hill FOR Odom, I am arguing dumping Hill to alleviate some of the complications of the cap over the next two off seasons. You've already demonstrated a somewhat likely scenario where we stay under the tax next season, making it all the more imperative that we get under it this season, so we can ignore the repeater threat for 3 years and make a SERIOUS run at a title.
You keep preaching about being under the tax at the end of the year. Wouldn't it be smart on the Lakers part to keep Hill, pump up that value of his and trade him for a 1st round pick or nice player going forward at the trade deadline?
If we don't dump Blake this point is moot and the FO has given no indication of doing so or carrying about a tax. They could have easily got under the tax this season.
PS - If you really think the Lakers are going to renounce their rights to Kobe, you are mistaken. They don't have to renounce his rights to sign him to a reduced salary, but as soon as they do renounce his rights, they can't offer him any more than any other team. So unless they lock him in BEFORE they sign their free agents, they won't have enough to offer him (FULL MLE at most) let alone Pau. And there is no guarantee that, if they DO renounce their rights to Kobe and Pau, that either won't take larger deals from teams on the brink or equivalent deals from contenders.
Renounce his rights, resign him to a cheaper deal, whatever you want to call it, they need to get rid of his 32 million dollar cap hold (and Pau's 19) to open up cap space to have the ability to get some free agents.
The ONLY way the Lakers can restock the roster to contend for Kobe's last few seasons is to maintain the ability to offer Kobe more than the market will bear this off season, which means they have to retain his free agent rights and stock the roster around he and Pau with complimentary younger pieces. The only way this doesn't apply is if a genuine opportunity to sign a franchise difference maker comes along, but it doesn't seem likely.
Kobe isn't jumping ship regardless. We give him a 15 million dollar contract and some team offers him 20 million a season, you really think he's going to leave?
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