D12 Discussion: Dwightmare over! (1139)

Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby abeer3 on Mon May 13, 2013 5:24 am

Rooscooter wrote:I was just wondering how and why you sift players into and out of catigories. Of the four Howard has the least team accomplishments. Nash has to MVP's, Gasol two Chips...... He does however have a phone booth!

For the record I count 2 or 3 "superstars" in the league. Kobe, Duncan and Bron.


ok, then basically nobody has them. thus it really doesn't matter if you do or not. also, it means Houston's guaranteed not to get one.

As for the the Houston GM stuff.... I couldn't care less who the GM is.... They have done a good job in positioning themselves for this summer and just had a season as good as ours. How you can marginalize that is getting a little petty it seems. Harden is incomplete but he's also pretty good. I'd say he's led a team of players worse than Howard teams the last two years just as far..... So he's a flawed young player on a first round playoff team.... Nothing more or less. Houston has room to sign a top player.... Sounds like they did a decent job running the team wouldn't you?


being unimpressed is petty? sorry, a slew of 8th and 9th place finishes doesn't get my blood pumping. why aren't we giving props to Utah? they've got tons of cap space (enough to get howard whilst retaining millsap and maybe getting more) and a "young core" (favors, Hayward, kanter, burks) that is on par with or better than Houston's recently exalted trifecta (asik, parsons, lin). if not for some injury issues, perhaps they win the extra two games it would have taken to make the playoffs ahead of Houston. btw, I can play this game with more teams. no one answered my similar point about Atlanta several pages ago.

my general point is that 10 teams have cap space to sign a top player (too bad only two are available and likely to stay with their teams), and most could claim to be pretty darn good if they just add that top player. does that mean the management is excellent? to me, that's akin to saying "if I won a million dollars, i'd be in an awesome financial position, therefore i'm excellent with money". sure, there are a precious few who still wouldn't be in a good position, and there are those already there (whom I think you'd disparage for not being in the position to win it?) and thus don't need it. but 95% don't fall in either group.

the original point was that people were saying Houston was better managed than the lakers. I don't think losing a lot over the past 8 years to the point where you finally nab a second or third tier star is where anyone here would want to be. I actually can't believe that people are jealous of their position. the time to be jealous is if and only if they get howard or paul. failing that, the lakers will be in better position than them, and all they've done is put themselves in a position to overpay josh smith. it's howard/paul or bust, and people (including me, btw) scoff at the idea that the lakers might try to play that game with LeBron in the next couple of years. i'm being consistent: hope is not a plan. lightning struck once for Houston when okc decided it couldn't afford harden and another team turned down a harden deal. they need another lightning strike. I hope the lakers don't end up in that spot.

tldr: if the lakers want to be where Houston was last summer, they can do it in one year, and may be forced to if howard walks in FA. then we can all be happy to root for youth and perpetual mediocrity (at best). i'm wondering if the fans around here will view mitch and company through the same rosy glasses that serve as filter for morey and company right now.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby Rooscooter on Mon May 13, 2013 9:02 am

abeer3 wrote:
being unimpressed is petty?


In an effort to hone this down to the point I made originally and not the ones your stuffing in my mouth....

What impresses you about our situation? We've seen plenty about what is unimpressive about the 29 other teams from you so you don't need to keep slapping that horse.

Is it the "destination" or the "history" of the city that makes you think we'll have a line of good/great players waiting for 2014 to jump ship and come here? Is it that you think Howard will attract them? I truly don't know what you think of our situation other than you feel it's superior to everyone else's. We're spending nearly 100M on this team..... once we go below the cap we will spend a max of the cap + the MLE. Through free agency alone I just don't think we can rebuild the team for that.... we may get another good/great player but we sure aren't getting him AND a complete team.

I chimed in because it was being presented that it would be idiotic for Howard to leave LA for somewhere like Houston. From a impartial perspective it's at least plausible if not possible for him to view their short term (3 to 5 years) situation as better than ours. That's been the limit of my "analysis" here. Anything you have responded to beyond that is arguing a point that I haven't made.

From a Lakers perspective it would be bad in the short term to lose Howard but it may be better over the long term. The new CBA will necessitate building from within as it will be difficult to pursue top level free agents and we need to begin looking at that process rather than continuing to chase the high priced top talent at the expense of forming a balanced team. If Howard stays he will need a large supporting cast.... one I'm very dubious is available the one year we're below the cap. My overall hope for the Lakers is to blow it up this offseason and get pieces in here to either fill the huge gaps or give us the flexibility to draft/acquire them in the near future.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby abeer3 on Mon May 13, 2013 9:47 am

Rooscooter wrote:
In an effort to hone this down to the point I made originally and not the ones your stuffing in my mouth....


my response was addressed to all of the houston acolytes here; i just used your thoughts as a jumping off point.

What impresses you about our situation?


nothing. it's no better or worse than many teams'. the main selling point is that the lakers are actually incredibly flexible beyond next year, meaning they can tailor their roster to howard's strengths. the people trashing the lakers claim they're old and inflexible, but they can be young and flexible in a matter of 12 months if they so choose.

the bigger point is that la has more guaranteed money to offer (yes, the last year matters). thus, competing offers should blow away the lakers on the court. as i've detailed, nobody does that unless howard can team up with paul. the team that puts that together blows away whatever the lakers can hope to do going forward. james harden? meh. you can match that, even if it takes paying a couple players less money.

We've seen plenty about what is unimpressive about the 29 other teams from you so you don't need to keep slapping that horse.


not really. i've just discussed why houston isn't impressive. i'm sorry it's hurt your feelings so much. i actually discussed why atlanta is in a better position than either houston or la.

Is it the "destination" or the "history" of the city that makes you think we'll have a line of good/great players waiting for 2014 to jump ship and come here? Is it that you think Howard will attract them?


somewhat and yes. you don't think the lakers, with the same money to offer second and third tier stars, wouldn't be top choice in FA? especially with a star in the fold? this is precisely why people hate the lakers.

I truly don't know what you think of our situation other than you feel it's superior to everyone else's.


i like that you accuse me of putting words in your mouth, then do so repeatedly in your response. saying something isn't vastly inferior is not the same as saying it's vastly superior. the burden of proof is on those who think it's logical for dwight to do what no other FA like him has ever done. he would need to be going to something much better, right? and that has been your claim: that the lakers are a mess (see next statement). my claim is that they're not a mess; they're just not where we're accustomed to them being. big difference.

We're spending nearly 100M on this team.....


this again? it's the remnants of a title team. every good team ends up here. it's only for one more year, if that. this point is simply immaterial.


once we go below the cap we will spend a max of the cap + the MLE. Through free agency alone I just don't think we can rebuild the team for that.... we may get another good/great player but we sure aren't getting him AND a complete team.


nobody with two max guys is, including houston. howard/harden, then lin (mediocre-at-best pg), parsons (above average and suddenly super overrated sf), and asik or whatever he can fetch on the trade market. does not look complete to me. holes at pg, pf, pretty much the entire bench, and no real third option to go to against the best defensive teams.

I chimed in because it was being presented that it would be idiotic for Howard to leave LA for somewhere like Houston. From a impartial perspective it's at least plausible if not possible for him to view their short term (3 to 5 years) situation as better than ours. That's been the limit of my "analysis" here. Anything you have responded to beyond that is arguing a point that I haven't made.


not idiotic, just not logical. i said that if howard goes to houston, it won't be about their on-court talent; it will be about the lack of off-court pressure.

and if by short-term, you mean 1 year, i buy it. beyond that, you're assuming the lakers will be incompetent in terms of team building, which has never been the case.

From a Lakers perspective it would be bad in the short term to lose Howard but it may be better over the long term. The new CBA will necessitate building from within as it will be difficult to pursue top level free agents and we need to begin looking at that process rather than continuing to chase the high priced top talent at the expense of forming a balanced team. If Howard stays he will need a large supporting cast.... one I'm very dubious is available the one year we're below the cap. My overall hope for the Lakers is to blow it up this offseason and get pieces in here to either fill the huge gaps or give us the flexibility to draft/acquire them in the near future.


i think the reasonable deduction here is that you think it's better to hope for a high lotto pick in a stacked draft than have a player in hand who, statistically speaking, is probably better than anyone that will come out for the next 4 years (meaning: the rate at which true superstars appear in the league is about once every 3-5 years or so). i mean, if you think howard + cap space is useless, then just cap space and crappiness has to be totally useless. by the same token, if howard and cap space is useless and unappealing to free agents, then why is harden + cap space such a good situation?

as for building from within, i'll revisit the above point: not only do you have to be terrible to get a high pick, but you have to win the lottery. i agree that the best and perhaps only way to get a transcendent player is to draft him, but that's every crappy team's dream, and it has a much lower probability of success than locking up a star in his prime and hoping to find some good support players to put around him, imo.

IF howard walks, we'll get to see your plan in action. but it will be a long and uncertain road back to even being relevant. so many teams have failed in that strategy, and it really hasn't been the laker way. i hope it doesn't come to that, because if people are this down on the organization after one terrible year (in which they won 45 games and made the playoffs), i don't think i want to be around this place when they're winning 20 games per and watching ping pong balls with bated breath.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby Rooscooter on Mon May 13, 2013 10:06 am

^^I think we agree more than disagree here....

My "plan" isn't to lose Howard and go all "Lottery". I'd blow it up this summer and get pieces to be even more flexible. That, to me, is a better strategy than going below the cap and rolling the dice on who will be available and who would actually fit. We get one summer to make that scenario work. Ridding ourselves of Pau, Nash and MWP will at least bring in future flexibility AND players to develop... the other route is just who's available in FA and a cap + MLE limitation on spending.

Further, I'm not a fan of "maxing" a center in this day and age. So if we're only going to get one shot at this we need to make it count and maybe.... just maybe it isn't in our best interests to build around a Max Center who's got Howard's limited abilities to win games down the stretch. Any center needs to be set up to be effective and he's got issues beyond that. He's the best we can get is the other way of looking at it and I think it's the way most here look at it as well. Middle playoff contention or lottery..... that seems to be our lot right now....
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby lakersin4 on Mon May 13, 2013 10:23 am

Rooscooter wrote:^^I think we agree more than disagree here....

My "plan" isn't to lose Howard and go all "Lottery". I'd blow it up this summer and get pieces to be even more flexible. That, to me, is a better strategy than going below the cap and rolling the dice on who will be available and who would actually fit. We get one summer to make that scenario work. Ridding ourselves of Pau, Nash and MWP will at least bring in future flexibility AND players to develop... the other route is just who's available in FA and a cap + MLE limitation on spending.

Further, I'm not a fan of "maxing" a center in this day and age. So if we're only going to get one shot at this we need to make it count and maybe.... just maybe it isn't in our best interests to build around a Max Center who's got Howard's limited abilities to win games down the stretch. Any center needs to be set up to be effective and he's got issues beyond that. He's the best we can get is the other way of looking at it and I think it's the way most here look at it as well. Middle playoff contention or lottery..... that seems to be our lot right now....
When Dwight was in Orlando & playing at his peak, he was #2 in the league behind Lebron right there next to Kobe as the most effective players in the league. He's not Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Hakeem, etc.. but what he is, is the best C in the NBA. He has been since Shaq's decline & Bynum putting together a couple seasons at 100% is the only shot at anyone in the league taking that spot. You absolutely max him out & hope he spends the rest of his career as a Laker. Guards ALWAYS want to play with the best C in the league. He will help us greatly in securing a star Guard to take over when Kobe hangs em up. There's just no way you let Dwight walk.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby Weezy on Mon May 13, 2013 10:50 am

I strongly disagree that Dwight was ever #2 in the league. The #2 player in the league doesn't get dominated by Pau Gasol in the NBA Finals. Sure, he was great against the Cavs, but what did he do when it mattered most? If Dwight does leave for another team I would like to at least thank him though. Not for what he did this season after he stopped pouting finally, but for missing those 2 free throws in the finals that allowed Fisher to hit that 3 that sent the game to overtime that we went on to win. Thanks for choking like you do Dwight. :jam2:
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby abeer3 on Mon May 13, 2013 10:52 am

Rooscooter wrote:^^I think we agree more than disagree here....

My "plan" isn't to lose Howard and go all "Lottery". I'd blow it up this summer and get pieces to be even more flexible. That, to me, is a better strategy than going below the cap and rolling the dice on who will be available and who would actually fit. We get one summer to make that scenario work. Ridding ourselves of Pau, Nash and MWP will at least bring in future flexibility AND players to develop... the other route is just who's available in FA and a cap + MLE limitation on spending.

Further, I'm not a fan of "maxing" a center in this day and age. So if we're only going to get one shot at this we need to make it count and maybe.... just maybe it isn't in our best interests to build around a Max Center who's got Howard's limited abilities to win games down the stretch. Any center needs to be set up to be effective and he's got issues beyond that. He's the best we can get is the other way of looking at it and I think it's the way most here look at it as well. Middle playoff contention or lottery..... that seems to be our lot right now....


you're probably right about our level of agreement, and i wouldn't be engaging in this debate if i didn't respect your takes in general.

i don't think the two strategies (the one you lay out above and the one in my mind) are necessarily mutually exclusive. i think the team can drop mwp via amnesty or trade him for a cheaper, more effective player on a slightly longer contract. they can move pau for either picks and space (i firmly believe that teams who strike out in FA this year will gladly eat his entire salary if they have the space, btw) or younger, cheaper players with some upside. moving nash is trickier, both because it will be tough to find a short-term replacement given the assets and because the organization needs to maintain the reputation of taking care of its guys. if they ship nash to siberia against his will, that will hurt them with future FAs (imo).

i also don't think next summer is necessarily the only shot. the lakers could act sooner via in-season deals in which they take on longer term contracts (in fact, this might be the more preferable strategy, given the FA market).

as for building around a center: i'm still in favor. i think howard allows you to build a defense-first team, which, imo, isn't as flashy but is far more effective than the offense-first builds we're seeing in some places (houston and denver, for example). look at how much noah impacts the game for chicago, and he's not dwight on that end.

to me, the key is to find someone to replace kobe's shot-creating abilities. it doesn't have to be a superstar, either, just someone whom the other team must respond to in the halfcourt. if NO was really considering dumping eric gordon, someone like that could work in a pinch. this is the reason people like howard in houston (harden plays that role well), but i think the lakers could essentially replicate that either via trade or FA.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby lakersin4 on Mon May 13, 2013 11:56 am

Weezy wrote:I strongly disagree that Dwight was ever #2 in the league. The #2 player in the league doesn't get dominated by Pau Gasol in the NBA Finals. Sure, he was great against the Cavs, but what did he do when it mattered most? If Dwight does leave for another team I would like to at least thank him though. Not for what he did this season after he stopped pouting finally, but for missing those 2 free throws in the finals that allowed Fisher to hit that 3 that sent the game to overtime that we went on to win. Thanks for choking like you do Dwight. :jam2:

Dwight's teams always gave Lebron problems.. When he's healthy he's the only guy in the league that can hold his own protecting the rim against Lebron. If you want to win rings in this era, you have to beat Lebron to do it. Keeping Dwight gives us a much better chance of doing that than any realistic alternative.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby easyguy on Mon May 13, 2013 12:55 pm

lakersin4 wrote:
Weezy wrote:I strongly disagree that Dwight was ever #2 in the league. The #2 player in the league doesn't get dominated by Pau Gasol in the NBA Finals. Sure, he was great against the Cavs, but what did he do when it mattered most? If Dwight does leave for another team I would like to at least thank him though. Not for what he did this season after he stopped pouting finally, but for missing those 2 free throws in the finals that allowed Fisher to hit that 3 that sent the game to overtime that we went on to win. Thanks for choking like you do Dwight. :jam2:

Dwight's teams always gave Lebron problems.. When he's healthy he's the only guy in the league that can hold his own protecting the rim against Lebron. If you want to win rings in this era, you have to beat Lebron to do it. Keeping Dwight gives us a much better chance of doing that than any realistic alternative.



I disagree. To beat Lebron, you must let him be the only scorer, stop everyone else. Just like the prime Kobe in 06, it was impossible to stop him, just stop everyone else. Unlike Kobe, Lebron have helpers on his team, Wade and Bosh.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby Rooscooter on Mon May 13, 2013 3:05 pm

abeer3 wrote:
Rooscooter wrote:^^I think we agree more than disagree here....

My "plan" isn't to lose Howard and go all "Lottery". I'd blow it up this summer and get pieces to be even more flexible. That, to me, is a better strategy than going below the cap and rolling the dice on who will be available and who would actually fit. We get one summer to make that scenario work. Ridding ourselves of Pau, Nash and MWP will at least bring in future flexibility AND players to develop... the other route is just who's available in FA and a cap + MLE limitation on spending.

Further, I'm not a fan of "maxing" a center in this day and age. So if we're only going to get one shot at this we need to make it count and maybe.... just maybe it isn't in our best interests to build around a Max Center who's got Howard's limited abilities to win games down the stretch. Any center needs to be set up to be effective and he's got issues beyond that. He's the best we can get is the other way of looking at it and I think it's the way most here look at it as well. Middle playoff contention or lottery..... that seems to be our lot right now....


you're probably right about our level of agreement, and i wouldn't be engaging in this debate if i didn't respect your takes in general.

i don't think the two strategies (the one you lay out above and the one in my mind) are necessarily mutually exclusive. i think the team can drop mwp via amnesty or trade him for a cheaper, more effective player on a slightly longer contract. they can move pau for either picks and space (i firmly believe that teams who strike out in FA this year will gladly eat his entire salary if they have the space, btw) or younger, cheaper players with some upside. moving nash is trickier, both because it will be tough to find a short-term replacement given the assets and because the organization needs to maintain the reputation of taking care of its guys. if they ship nash to siberia against his will, that will hurt them with future FAs (imo).

i also don't think next summer is necessarily the only shot. the lakers could act sooner via in-season deals in which they take on longer term contracts (in fact, this might be the more preferable strategy, given the FA market).

as for building around a center: i'm still in favor. i think howard allows you to build a defense-first team, which, imo, isn't as flashy but is far more effective than the offense-first builds we're seeing in some places (houston and denver, for example). look at how much noah impacts the game for chicago, and he's not dwight on that end.

to me, the key is to find someone to replace kobe's shot-creating abilities. it doesn't have to be a superstar, either, just someone whom the other team must respond to in the halfcourt. if NO was really considering dumping eric gordon, someone like that could work in a pinch. this is the reason people like howard in houston (harden plays that role well), but i think the lakers could essentially replicate that either via trade or FA.


OK.... now we're getting there..... :man12:

Building around a center is iffy IMO only because of the new CBA and our position. If Howard were Shaq it would be different but as it is he's a very good defender, great rebounder and decent offensive center. Is that enough to spend your only max slot on? My gut tells me that there is a lot more at play in signing him long term than what he does on the floor. Marketing, TV revenue and eyeballs all translate to the bottom line in LA's new TV deal so there is more to what we will see in the coming two off-seasons that just what is happening on the floor. That is why I think Kobe gets re-signed and for more than most here think as well.... I just don't see him playing for 10 M a year. Nothing in his past would indicate that.

As for Nash..... the only value he has is to teams on the contention bubble IMO. NY, NJ, Chi, Denver, and maybe GS could all use him as a sage while at the same time having pieces/picks that help us. A long shot at best however.

I like defensive teams as well.... does ownership? That's the question. Jerry was known to want a return of Showtime and that hastened us into last years moves. Do we still go down that road hoping that Howard can carry the defense single handedly? That's what it seems like right now.

Pau is the most likely to be moved IMO. That, however will be predicated on whether or not the front office thinks we have a shot next year. Kobe won't be Kobe again (if ever) until mid season at least. Can this group be within shouting distance then is the elephant in that room. I don't think so. So getting rid of Pau is like cashing in a lottery ticket before it expires to me. Don't think they see it that way though.

Finally, I've been putting out there that I don't see a good way to do everything that needs to be done in one offseason by going below the cap. It's more of an general observation and not scientific but a lot of stars need to align for us to build a quick turnaround contender in one season. Building around Howard is not the same as adding a number 2 for Kobe and that was nearly a miracle (getting Pau). Howard needs several good to very good pieces to get him in a position to lead a team IMO. He's been on teams with a lot of great supporting players (better than what Kobe has had in depth for sure) and still hasn't gotten out of the East more than once. So going from 3 deep to 9 or 10 deep in an offseason seems difficult.

I too wouldn't be pursuing this conversation this far if I didn't appreciate your angle. :beer:
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby abeer3 on Mon May 13, 2013 4:15 pm

Rooscooter wrote:
OK.... now we're getting there..... :man12:

Building around a center is iffy IMO only because of the new CBA and our position. If Howard were Shaq it would be different but as it is he's a very good defender, great rebounder and decent offensive center. Is that enough to spend your only max slot on? My gut tells me that there is a lot more at play in signing him long term than what he does on the floor. Marketing, TV revenue and eyeballs all translate to the bottom line in LA's new TV deal so there is more to what we will see in the coming two off-seasons that just what is happening on the floor. That is why I think Kobe gets re-signed and for more than most here think as well.... I just don't see him playing for 10 M a year. Nothing in his past would indicate that.


I can't guess at this last part. my hope is that kobe will take what he's worth on the floor. if it's still 30 million (which he probably was until the injury, not his fault LeBron is underpaid), so be it. he's a bona fide superstar. if it's a kg/td 10-12 per, I hope it means he's still a borderline allstar caliber player.

as to the first part, I think there are a lot worse ways to spend your max slot than howard. I don't want the lakers to have a chance to do that.

As for Nash..... the only value he has is to teams on the contention bubble IMO. NY, NJ, Chi, Denver, and maybe GS could all use him as a sage while at the same time having pieces/picks that help us. A long shot at best however.


I don't see something that works for both teams, really. and again, the lakers would need to find a starting pg with limited assets if they dumped nash. call me crazy, but I think the nash/blake duo was fairly solid; we just didn't get a chance to see it. if nash is totally broken, his trade value won't be helpful to the team, anyway.

I like defensive teams as well.... does ownership? That's the question. Jerry was known to want a return of Showtime and that hastened us into last years moves. Do we still go down that road hoping that Howard can carry the defense single handedly? That's what it seems like right now.


again, my hope is that this was out of necessity. I think mitch (and probably even jimmy) knows that this team wasn't built for howard, and that they'll need to do some serious tweaking to make it work.

Pau is the most likely to be moved IMO. That, however will be predicated on whether or not the front office thinks we have a shot next year. Kobe won't be Kobe again (if ever) until mid season at least. Can this group be within shouting distance then is the elephant in that room. I don't think so. So getting rid of Pau is like cashing in a lottery ticket before it expires to me. Don't think they see it that way though.


tough spot with pau. if the lakers get a sensible offer this summer, I think they take it, but with his surgery I don't see teams risking what the lakers would want. if Dwight walks, I think they can dump him for picks and tank. if Dwight stays, I see gasol on the opening day roster and a prime candidate to be moved in February (huge expiring). so much can happen between now and then, though. pau would be a huge chip if say, some star gets disgruntled (kevin love? john wall?). if kobe's looking good and likely to command a big salary in 2014, I thinkt he lakers look to strike before the summer. if kobe's basically done, maybe they try to move pau for a couple picks.

Finally, I've been putting out there that I don't see a good way to do everything that needs to be done in one offseason by going below the cap. It's more of an general observation and not scientific but a lot of stars need to align for us to build a quick turnaround contender in one season. Building around Howard is not the same as adding a number 2 for Kobe and that was nearly a miracle (getting Pau). Howard needs several good to very good pieces to get him in a position to lead a team IMO. He's been on teams with a lot of great supporting players (better than what Kobe has had in depth for sure) and still hasn't gotten out of the East more than once. So going from 3 deep to 9 or 10 deep in an offseason seems difficult.



my general philosophy at this point is that closer to contention > further away. no, they can't turn it all around in 2014, but they can get respectable and get some pieces in place to be ready to make another jump. I think that's doable in a short time frame.

I too wouldn't be pursuing this conversation this far if I didn't appreciate your angle. :beer:


:bow:
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby JGC on Mon May 13, 2013 8:01 pm

abeer3 wrote:
Rooscooter wrote:I was just wondering how and why you sift players into and out of catigories. Of the four Howard has the least team accomplishments. Nash has to MVP's, Gasol two Chips...... He does however have a phone booth!

For the record I count 2 or 3 "superstars" in the league. Kobe, Duncan and Bron.


ok, then basically nobody has them. thus it really doesn't matter if you do or not. also, it means Houston's guaranteed not to get one.

As for the the Houston GM stuff.... I couldn't care less who the GM is.... They have done a good job in positioning themselves for this summer and just had a season as good as ours. How you can marginalize that is getting a little petty it seems. Harden is incomplete but he's also pretty good. I'd say he's led a team of players worse than Howard teams the last two years just as far..... So he's a flawed young player on a first round playoff team.... Nothing more or less. Houston has room to sign a top player.... Sounds like they did a decent job running the team wouldn't you?


being unimpressed is petty? sorry, a slew of 8th and 9th place finishes doesn't get my blood pumping. why aren't we giving props to Utah? they've got tons of cap space (enough to get howard whilst retaining millsap and maybe getting more) and a "young core" (favors, Hayward, kanter, burks) that is on par with or better than Houston's recently exalted trifecta (asik, parsons, lin). if not for some injury issues, perhaps they win the extra two games it would have taken to make the playoffs ahead of Houston. btw, I can play this game with more teams. no one answered my similar point about Atlanta several pages ago.

my general point is that 10 teams have cap space to sign a top player (too bad only two are available and likely to stay with their teams), and most could claim to be pretty darn good if they just add that top player. does that mean the management is excellent? to me, that's akin to saying "if I won a million dollars, i'd be in an awesome financial position, therefore i'm excellent with money". sure, there are a precious few who still wouldn't be in a good position, and there are those already there (whom I think you'd disparage for not being in the position to win it?) and thus don't need it. but 95% don't fall in either group.

the original point was that people were saying Houston was better managed than the lakers. I don't think losing a lot over the past 8 years to the point where you finally nab a second or third tier star is where anyone here would want to be. I actually can't believe that people are jealous of their position. the time to be jealous is if and only if they get howard or paul. failing that, the lakers will be in better position than them, and all they've done is put themselves in a position to overpay josh smith. it's howard/paul or bust, and people (including me, btw) scoff at the idea that the lakers might try to play that game with LeBron in the next couple of years. i'm being consistent: hope is not a plan. lightning struck once for Houston when okc decided it couldn't afford harden and another team turned down a harden deal. they need another lightning strike. I hope the lakers don't end up in that spot.

tldr: if the lakers want to be where Houston was last summer, they can do it in one year, and may be forced to if howard walks in FA. then we can all be happy to root for youth and perpetual mediocrity (at best). i'm wondering if the fans around here will view mitch and company through the same rosy glasses that serve as filter for morey and company right now.


I know you guys were trading thoughts here but was anyone really suggesting that Houston was better managed than the Lakers as a franchise? I'm not sure anyone actually said that, did they?

The point about Houston being a viable destination, which I know is a premise you don't subscribe to, is because a) Houston has the financial flexibility to do so and b) would be a better team than they were this season if they acquired him and c) has younger players which are expected to improve, rather than decline. Can we agree on those points at least?

And the reason why I think SOME people (including myself) think Houston is a potential destination (I still believe LA is the most likely FWIW), is because a) this first season as a Laker probably had a negative feeling to it from Howard's perspective b) currently, the Lakers roster and coaching staff is a mess and c) in 2014, the Lakers will have Howard/Nash and nothing else so there is no guarantee they'll be able to build anything good and d) The Lakers have a winning tradition, but winning has never been accomplished by current management. It COULD happen. And my guess is, it probably will, but we just don't know. What we do know (if we agree on the points about Houston above), is that if he went to Houston, there is a reasonable expectation that they would be incrementally better and with that young core, could reasonably be expected to continue to get better.

This is probably over simplifying it, but it's like, you have two investment options. One option is all but guaranteed to net you $10K per year. The other option is that you get $6M per year but this option has the history of potentially netting you $14K per year. Perhaps not the best example, but my point I guess is that if he went to Houston, they'd probably end up winning more over the next 3 seasons or so and who knows where they go after that and with us, he has to be OK with what will probably be a couple of down seasons and then who knows where we go after that. The fact we have a winning history is the only real saving grace to the idea we'll recover and recover fast.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby Rooscooter on Mon May 13, 2013 10:40 pm

^^^ it's not about a "feeling" IMO.... If Howard thinks Houston is closer than us and can make enough away from the game to make the tax difference payoff then he might jump. It's not a foregone conclusion that he can make more here even with the additional $$ and a year. It's also no sure thing he can't..... My guess is that he stays but if he sees reasons to leave he just might. If everyone remembers it he wasn't really jazzed to come here initially so you never know.....
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby abeer3 on Tue May 14, 2013 5:30 am

you lose me at: Houston's young core can reasonably expect to get better. imo, there's not a guy on that team that I expect to improve very much in the next three years. lin? topped out. parsons? close to topped out. harden? close to topped out. asik? close to topped out. all made their big leaps already. if anything, I think regression is possible in some cases, particularly if howard gets there and they stop playing the way they played this year (which inflated everyone's numbers for several reasons). maybe t. jones, t. robinson d. motiejunas become legit nba players, but that's not going to bridge the gap between where they are and where they want to be (title favorites).

that's still the difference between my take and yours on Houston: I don't think lin, parsons, and asik are that good. and I don't think harden's a superstar. if you think both of those things, you're probably wondering why Dwight would even consider staying in la (though, again, that last year does matter). but those are points with which I can't agree.

and i'll return to my earlier point: if Dwight's all about winning, why has Atlanta never entered the conversation? I explained earlier why I think they can build a better team than Houston or la, and quickly.

finally, my point is and always has been: Houston's situation needs to be worlds better than la's for howard to want to jump there solely for competitive purposes. I don't think they meet that qualification. now, if it's about howard essentially being chicken...that's another discussion.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby JGC on Tue May 14, 2013 7:58 am

abeer3 wrote:you lose me at: Houston's young core can reasonably expect to get better. imo, there's not a guy on that team that I expect to improve very much in the next three years. lin? topped out. parsons? close to topped out. harden? close to topped out. asik? close to topped out. all made their big leaps already. if anything, I think regression is possible in some cases, particularly if howard gets there and they stop playing the way they played this year (which inflated everyone's numbers for several reasons). maybe t. jones, t. robinson d. motiejunas become legit nba players, but that's not going to bridge the gap between where they are and where they want to be (title favorites).

that's still the difference between my take and yours on Houston: I don't think lin, parsons, and asik are that good. and I don't think harden's a superstar. if you think both of those things, you're probably wondering why Dwight would even consider staying in la (though, again, that last year does matter). but those are points with which I can't agree.

and i'll return to my earlier point: if Dwight's all about winning, why has Atlanta never entered the conversation? I explained earlier why I think they can build a better team than Houston or la, and quickly.

finally, my point is and always has been: Houston's situation needs to be worlds better than la's for howard to want to jump there solely for competitive purposes. I don't think they meet that qualification. now, if it's about howard essentially being chicken...that's another discussion.


Why couldn't they expect to get better? They led the league in turnovers so they can definitely improve there. They were one of the highest scoring offenses in the NBA, but were not very good defensively. So they can improve there. They have a bit of a shining star (so to speak) in Patrick Beverly too so figure out how to playing him and Lin together. And what I mean by better is not necessarily in point production per se, but better efficiency in playing together. Harden started for the first time in his career and led the league in turnovers. He also wasn't very efficient in terms of overall shooting and I thought, had a tendency to over dominate the ball. He, like Kobe when he was younger (not saying he's Kobe) is going to have to learn to do more by doing less. Harden can also improve in terms of clutch play. I thought Greg Smith showed a lot of promise as well especially in the offensive rebounding department, he could see more playing time and help that team. I can see why you would say what you say about Lin and maybe even Parsons I suppose but they can stay right where they are and the team could still improve through some of those other pieces.

I think where we are just not going to agree (and thus, makes this conversation nearly impossible to have) is that as you said, you do not believe there is a single guy on the Rockets that you expect to get better as a player.

FWIW, if you read my post correctly, you'd know that I believe D12 will sign in LA. I'm only stating the reasons why Houston could be a viable destination. You have to understand that if one believes the Rockets team can get better without any changes, then, adding Dwight to the mix would make them incrementally better. Now, I understand you don't feel that way, but for those that do feel that way, can you understand now, why someone might view Houston as a possible team for Dwight? I mean, you don't think it is completely unreasonable for someone to think Houston could be better next year with all those young players do you? Again, I know you don't think so, but, do you really think that believing so is some wild, out-of-left-field belief?

Atlanta has not entered the conversation because they are reasonably expected to be worse going in to next season. Lots of contracts off the books. The only reason Houston would be an option, is, if Dwight thought they were going to be better next season and that with him, they could be that much better. Again, Atlanta COULD end up being better than Houston since there is cap flexibility but I think the thought, in general, is that Houston will probably have the most success record wise between the Lakers, Hawks and Rockets next season and possibly season after next and that's why it isn't unreasonable to consider it a potential home for Howard.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby abeer3 on Tue May 14, 2013 8:32 am

you've summed it up nicely. i just think the houston optimisim is...well, just that. my feeling is that the predominant projections in this thread have been negative for la (and atlanta, i guess) and positive for houston. my point is that people tend to over-assume growth in young players. most of these guys fizzle out; only a few actually improve every year. most improvements occur via either a) a vastly improved skill (usually the jumper, rarely ballhandling or playmaking) or b) physical maturity/strength gains. youth really only matters to me if the player's limitations are in those areas. for example, i think anthony davis will both get stronger and more accurate with his midrange jumpshot, and this will lead to him taking a big jump over the next couple of years. all of the rockets young guys, save parsons, are already physically mature/strong, and most of them can shoot about as well as can be expected given their physical tools (you don't think lin has been killing himself for three years already to improve that jumper?).

atlanta (now) or la (next year or via trade) can get guys who already can do the things we're hoping all non-harden rockets can do, imo.

and i do consider houston among the chief competition for howard; i just don't buy the argument that it's a tremendous basketball situation. the thought exercise is this: if they don't get howard (and get, instead, a josh smith level player), what should we expect from them? i'd say not a whole lot. maybe some top 4 finishes, another denver. it's only if they land howard that they're serious, and my general argument is that anyone who gets howard, by virtue of having howard, is serious.

this is where roo disagrees, i think, and points to the lakers being crappy (but, again, better than houston) despite having howard this year. i think there are good excuses for the lakers' poor play (injuries to basically everyone, coaching changes, philosophical changes) and reason to believe that even if they made no moves other than retaining howard, they should be better next year (read: injuries can't hit that hard again, and if they do, it's a portland trailblazers voodoo curse).
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby 3TheHardenWay on Tue May 14, 2013 9:18 am

D12 would be happy again in Htown with Harden Chandler P And crew they are YOUNG and could trade Osik for his BEST FRIEND JSmooth
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby therealdeal on Tue May 14, 2013 9:26 am

3TheHardenWay wrote:D12 would be happy again in Htown with Harden Chandler P And crew they are YOUNG and could trade Osik for his BEST FRIEND JSmooth

Totes.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby dwighthowardsdad on Tue May 14, 2013 9:29 am

We sure have a lot of Houston fans on this board.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby 3TheHardenWay on Tue May 14, 2013 9:39 am

therealdeal wrote:
3TheHardenWay wrote:D12 would be happy again in Htown with Harden Chandler P And crew they are YOUNG and could trade Osik for his BEST FRIEND JSmooth

Totes.

?????
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby 3TheHardenWay on Tue May 14, 2013 9:41 am

dwighthowardsdad wrote:We sure have a lot of Houston fans on this board.

Lakers fan to if I like 2 teams its a problem or I'm not welcome???
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby therealdeal on Tue May 14, 2013 9:43 am

3TheHardenWay wrote:
therealdeal wrote:
3TheHardenWay wrote:D12 would be happy again in Htown with Harden Chandler P And crew they are YOUNG and could trade Osik for his BEST FRIEND JSmooth

Totes.

?????

"Totes" is what the young people these days use for the word "totally". My niece taught me that.

3TheHardenWay wrote:
dwighthowardsdad wrote:We sure have a lot of Houston fans on this board.

Lakers fan to if I like 2 teams its a problem or I'm not welcome???

If you're a fan of both teams, that's fine. Be prepared to be met with a lot of opposition as the first thing you posted was a flimsy reason why Howard might like Houston. Not to mention your name is decidedly NOT a "Laker" friendly name.
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby dwighthowardsdad on Tue May 14, 2013 9:44 am

3TheHardenWay wrote:
dwighthowardsdad wrote:We sure have a lot of Houston fans on this board.

Lakers fan to if I like 2 teams its a problem or I'm not welcome???


Cotton Candy, is that you?
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby Rooscooter on Tue May 14, 2013 9:46 am

Real brining the youthful colloquialisms..... :jam2:
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Re: D12 Thread: Brushin' his shoulders off (Won't need surgery)

Postby lakerfan2 on Tue May 14, 2013 9:48 am

Dude doesn't even know his own players...Osik?

Not to mention, Houston wouldn't be able to execute a sign and trade because they're already / would be over the cap.

Le sigh.
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