In Depth analysis of Dwight's impact on the Lakers offense

thkthebest · by **thkthebest** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:03 pm

I remember reading that Dwight hired a shooting coach last season to help him with his free throws. Whatever that coach did failed miserably. :man10:

Anyway, I expect Dwight to be hovering around his usual 59-60%, which is bad, but I think people are exaggerating just how negatively this would affect us. 6/10 free throws is about 1.4 ppp I believe (counting and 1s and whatever). Relative to the average free throw possession, it's bad, but relative to the average offensive possession, it isn't.

Free throws provide us with several other advantages anyway. They help us slow down the game by disallowing the other team to get out on the run. We could also potentially put the other team in foul trouble. If they are, any foul on Kobe, Nash, etc. is an automatic two points. We might put someone like Garnett on the bench because he picked up two quick fouls. Whatever the case is, as long as Dwight's not hitting 49 FT% like he did last season, things will be just fine.

therealdeal · by **therealdeal** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:02 pm

Rooscooter wrote:
First.... I'm not sure how you make something "positive" about an All Star, supposed top 3 player shooting 50% from the free throw line.... just my take....

Shaq was extremely similar, but he did just fine.

Rooscooter wrote:Second I think you didn't understand what I was saying. If, after towards second season, you looked at the two free throw percentages (1st and second seasons) which one is trend setting and which one is the outlier?.... This is without the benefit of the balance of his career to this point. The larger point being that last season may be the outlier..... which it most likely is.... but you can't discount the possibility that it's the beginning of a trend either.

No I understood your point, which is why I provided my example. Sure, you can conjecture that this last season could be the start of a trend of downward spiraling free throw percentage, but you could also say that this season you expect Metta World Peace to shoot over 40% from behind the 3 point line. My reasoning being his shot improved over the course of the season as he lost weight and became more explosive and mobile.

Are either of those things possible trends? Yes. Are either of them likely? No, not really. And we know because we have previous seasons to attest to. Sure, in Dwight's early years you wouldn't know it was a trend either way, but we're not there any more and we have something to build off of. There's no need to make that conclusion here.

Rooscooter wrote:All players hit a plateau and then the trajectory changes as age, injuries and situations change.....

I agree, but this man is just turning 26, he's just hitting his prime. He's coming off of his first major injury which numerous doctors have described as being serious, but manageable to the point where he should be back to himself relatively soon. I have no real fear that Dwight has reached any sort of plateau at this age or given his current situation, and there really isn't any reason to believe he has.

Rooscooter wrote:In any event..... 49% or 59%..... or somewhere between... this isn't the guy we want shooting any more free throws than is absolutely necessary..... trend, outlier or whatever....

Actually this is EXACTLY the guy we want shooting free throws (outside of crucial situations). Dwight Howard has shot over 10 free throws a game for each of the last two seasons and his career average is 9.3 free throws per game.

By comparison Kobe shot 7.8 and Andrew Bynum shot 5.6 free throws per game. So it's safe to say that Dwight gets fouled a lot.

If that holds true, that means we've got guys like Gasol, Kobe, Nash, Jamison, Meeks, and even Metta who are all capable of scoring the basketball with easier scoring positions. If the other team's better players are in foul trouble, those guys are going to have a field day. And even if they aren't, many guys (especially inside) have to play carefully to avoid fouls.

If Howard is continually fouled, that means we're in the bonus as well. That means guys like Nash and Kobe get to go to the line more often and that means easier points on the board.

It's not always as easy as looking at just Howard's percentages.

Battle Tested20 · by **Battle Tested20** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:06 pm

The only little thing I've always remembered when watch Howard play in ORL is that he tends to bring the ball down a lot unlike Drew, who often always got praised by commentators for always keeping the ball high. It will be interesting to see if Dwight has improved on this, which I'm sure he has or will over time.

therealdeal · by **therealdeal** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:14 pm

Battle Tested20 wrote:The only little thing I've always remembered when watch Howard play in ORL is that he tends to bring the ball down a lot unlike Drew, who often always got praised by commentators for always keeping the ball high. It will be interesting to see if Dwight has improved on this, which I'm sure he has or will over time.

Part of the reason he can get away with it is because he's much stronger than 99% of the league and he's still stronger than pretty much the rest of the 1%. As a big man, especially a 7 footer with that kind of reach, you definitely need to keep the ball high.

But for guys like Shaq and Dwight, bringing the ball down is less detrimental. They have the ability to overpower almost anybody. I do hope he develops though. I'd like to see him change it up and keep the ball high sometimes, against shorter opponents especially.

Ras Algethi · by **Ras Algethi** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:16 pm

Part of howard putting the ball down to is to gather himself for the jump. He takes advantage of his leaping ability. Bynum generally takes advantage of his length instead so he keeps the ball high.

sina · by **sina** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:40 pm

Drew has better low post offensive skill, no doubt. Thus he needs the ball and fit for inside out offense more. However, Dwight uses his athleticism n jumping ability to score 2nd chance points.

Defensively, Drew is a good man on man defender. However, Dwight is excellent help defender with his superior athleticism.

Not easy to say who is better. But Dwight is a better fit obviously.

wallangong · by **wallangong** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 8:46 pm

I'm on my phone and don't feel like quoting, but am I the only one who noticed therealdeal's reference to the "juggler knot"?

Rooscooter · by **Rooscooter** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:45 pm

therealdeal wrote:
Rooscooter wrote:In any event..... 49% or 59%..... or somewhere between... this isn't the guy we want shooting any more free throws than is absolutely necessary..... trend, outlier or whatever....

Actually this is EXACTLY the guy we want shooting free throws (outside of crucial situations). Dwight Howard has shot over 10 free throws a game for each of the last two seasons and his career average is 9.3 free throws per game.

By comparison Kobe shot 7.8 and Andrew Bynum shot 5.6 free throws per game. So it's safe to say that Dwight gets fouled a lot.

If that holds true, that means we've got guys like Gasol, Kobe, Nash, Jamison, Meeks, and even Metta who are all capable of scoring the basketball with easier scoring positions. If the other team's better players are in foul trouble, those guys are going to have a field day. And even if they aren't, many guys (especially inside) have to play carefully to avoid fouls.

If Howard is continually fouled, that means we're in the bonus as well. That means guys like Nash and Kobe get to go to the line more often and that means easier points on the board.

It's not always as easy as looking at just Howard's percentages.

I don't think we were far that far off on the bulk of the points regarding his shooting and trends..... I hope he returns to his usual poor shooting rather than the recent poor shooting.... I know that's "negative" but it's also a fact....

I don't agree fully with the final point... while he may get better shooters a couple extra shots a game..... the flip side is that you have one of your best players that is largely unavailable down the stretch in close games because of his free throw shooting. That, IMHO offsets any extra shots you get at a higher percentage because all you need is one 0 for 2 trip to the line to turn a game with under 2 minutes left..... Howard becomes a target on both ends..... just as Shaq was. He gets a board and he will get fouled immediately..... touch it on the offensive end and the same.... That has an impact no matter how much some think it doesn't The saving grace for us will be Nash because he will be able to take the pressure off Kobe to close games.....

Having Pau and Howard on the floor does worry me a little in close games...... the hope is that Nash and Kobe can cover their shortcomings on a more consistent basis than just Kobe iso did last year....

therealdeal · by **therealdeal** on Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:19 pm

Rooscooter wrote:I don't think we were far that far off on the bulk of the points regarding his shooting and trends..... I hope he returns to his usual poor shooting rather than the recent poor shooting.... I know that's "negative" but it's also a fact....

You mean from the line, of course. His shooting from the field has always been great, including last season.

Rooscooter wrote:I don't agree fully with the final point... while he may get better shooters a couple extra shots a game..... the flip side is that you have one of your best players that is largely unavailable down the stretch in close games because of his free throw shooting. That, IMHO offsets any extra shots you get at a higher percentage because all you need is one 0 for 2 trip to the line to turn a game with under 2 minutes left..... Howard becomes a target on both ends..... just as Shaq was. He gets a board and he will get fouled immediately..... touch it on the offensive end and the same.... That has an impact no matter how much some think it doesn't The saving grace for us will be Nash because he will be able to take the pressure off Kobe to close games.....

Actually I think you're missing the point Roos. Late in games it won't matter because earlier in the 4th quarter Kobe and Dwight will often accumulate 4 fouls on the other team. This will lead to automatic free throws in many instances late in games.

Not to mention, we have Nash, Kobe, and Gasol down the stretch we don't need to give Howard the ball in the post. We can have him run pick and roll situations where 74% of the time he is successful and that leads to easy baskets.

You keep bringing up this point like Howard is going to be this main cog in the offense late in games. We have Kobe Bryant who is still the ultimate closer and he will be responsible for offense late. Howard can't be hacked if he doesn't have the ball.

Rooscooter wrote:Having Pau and Howard on the floor does worry me a little in close games...... the hope is that Nash and Kobe can cover their shortcomings on a more consistent basis than just Kobe iso did last year....

Run a post up for Kobe at the elbow. Nash up top and Artest across to space. Howard and Pau stacked near the basket on the weak side. If the double comes, Pau flashes down Howard stays back. Kobe can shoot the ball and be confident that Pau and/or Howard will cover the rebound. Or he can pass the ball up top to Nash for an open 3, or he can drive to the basket.

I'm not worried about that at all.

The Rock · by **The Rock** on Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:27 am

Dwights FG% will be just fine. Big men have always done well once they start playing with Kobe...Pau's FG% skyrocketed once he got here from Memphis and Lamar's as well when he got here from Miami. Mind you we didn't have Phil that 2004/2005 season.

JGC · by **JGC** on Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:19 am

The Rock wrote:Dwights FG% will be just fine. Big men have always done well once they start playing with Kobe...Pau's FG% skyrocketed once he got here from Memphis and Lamar's as well when he got here from Miami. Mind you we didn't have Phil that 2004/2005 season.

If anything, I predict D12's FG percentage to increase. It wouldn't make sense for it not to other than the fact of whether his back is bothering him. There should be no reason for his FG% to drop playing alongside the weapons he'll be on the court with. He'll be playing with the best PG and SG he's ever played with and he'll get the majority of his assisted points from there.

Having said that, I do still expect a slight decrease in PPG but only by a hair. I don't think one can expect an increase in scoring after going from being #1 on a team with not much else, team custom-built to maximize your output, and never having had a teammate scoring more than 13.8 times per game to being #2 and sometimes #3 option, team not custom-built to maximize HIS offensive output, and multiple teammates (well, 2) that already last year took more shots than any D12 teammate has in his career.

Doesn't mean an increase can't happen, but when you go from being the only one to one of a few, it's MORE likely the wealth is going to be spread.

Congo Cash · by **Congo Cash** on Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:36 am

I think Shaq's problem was his inability to shoot jumpers and not his bad FT shooting IMO... In crunch time, teams pack the paint and since he can't do anything beyond 2-3 feet, so why give him the ball...

The Rock · by **The Rock** on Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:10 pm

https://twitter.com/bballSource/status/238327854302121985

Look at Dwight's Putback stats and they're incredible: 73% FG compared to 50% for Bynum.Dwight scores 64% of time,Bynum only 55%

Rooscooter · by **Rooscooter** on Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:31 pm

JGC wrote:
The Rock wrote:Dwights FG% will be just fine. Big men have always done well once they start playing with Kobe...Pau's FG% skyrocketed once he got here from Memphis and Lamar's as well when he got here from Miami. Mind you we didn't have Phil that 2004/2005 season.

If anything, I predict D12's FG percentage to increase. It wouldn't make sense for it not to other than the fact of whether his back is bothering him. There should be no reason for his FG% to drop playing alongside the weapons he'll be on the court with. He'll be playing with the best PG and SG he's ever played with and he'll get the majority of his assisted points from there.

Having said that, I do still expect a slight decrease in PPG but only by a hair. I don't think one can expect an increase in scoring after going from being #1 on a team with not much else, team custom-built to maximize your output, and never having had a teammate scoring more than 13.8 times per game to being #2 and sometimes #3 option, team not custom-built to maximize HIS offensive output, and multiple teammates (well, 2) that already last year took more shots than any D12 teammate has in his career.

Doesn't mean an increase can't happen, but when you go from being the only one to one of a few, it's MORE likely the wealth is going to be spread.

The only counterpoint I can see to this is that in Orlando he had an open lane and a team that was able to run. Both of those things are conducive to easy attempts. Here he will be in the half court more and he will see more congestion in the lane. On the upside however.... Nash should be able to compensate for some of that by getting him better looks.

The put-back numbers won't translate directly to this situation IMHO.... Orlando had few other rebounders and no one the stature of Pau on the boards in Howard's entire time there..... just the fact that playing with a 10+ board a game PF will limit his opportunities for the put backs..... What that stat shows however is that there is a pretty big difference in FG% on everything else because Andrew and Howard were within a few percentage points of each other in overall FG%....

BDG · by **BDG** on Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:44 pm

The Rock wrote:https://twitter.com/bballSource/status/238327854302121985

Look at Dwight's Putback stats and they're incredible: 73% FG compared to 50% for Bynum.Dwight scores 64% of time,Bynum only 55%

Just curious what they define as a putback ... is it just a score off an offensive rebound or actually tapping the ball in off a rebound without returning to the ground?

I think the former is more meaningful, but either way, that's a positive stat.

By the way, is there any stat (besides free throw shooting and not something that's opinion-based) that Bynum does significantly better than Dwight? Just curious, as most of the stats posted here favor Howard.

thkthebest · by **thkthebest** on Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:06 pm

BDG wrote:
The Rock wrote:https://twitter.com/bballSource/status/238327854302121985

Look at Dwight's Putback stats and they're incredible: 73% FG compared to 50% for Bynum.Dwight scores 64% of time,Bynum only 55%
Just curious what they define as a putback ... is it just a score off an offensive rebound or actually tapping the ball in off a rebound without returning to the ground?

I think the former is more meaningful, but either way, that's a positive stat.

By the way, is there any stat (besides free throw shooting and not something that's opinion-based) that Bynum does significantly better than Dwight? Just curious, as most of the stats posted here favor Howard.

Aside from FT%... I guess 3P%. Lol.

Ludachris · by **Ludachris** on Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:19 pm

I think one of the reasons we have not been very successful using pick and rolls is that Bynum couldn't set a screen to save his life. Pau was only slightly better. Let's hope Howard shows Pau how to set a solid pick. His picks should not only set him up for scoring opportunities, but will open it up for others as well.

And I think the added free throws for the team is a valid point that many aren't thinking about. Howard will draw more fouls than Drew did simply from his speed and effort. He'll catch defenses off guard and will draw mismatches because he'll be down the floor faster than the other team's bigs. That will lead to the team getting into the penalty earlier, and Nash's free throw percentage should help offset Howard's a little.

Bynum had great post moves but he also struggled with double teams and didn't get down the floor quickly on offense or defense. I believe Dwight's speed and athleticism will outweigh Drew's post moves. As good as Drew's footwork was, his need to have the ball to be productive and his ineffectiveness when doubled killed the flow on offense. At least that's my opinion.

In Depth analysis of Dwight's impact on the Lakers offense

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