How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby The Rock on Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:16 am

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2013/03/05/whats-behind-the-lakers-run/

The Los Angeles Lakers are making a charge. They’ve won 13 of their last 18 games and are now just two games behind the Utah Jazz for the eighth spot in the Western Conference.

But are the Lakers a much better team right now than they were six weeks ago? Not really.

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A look at the numbers shows only minimal improvement from the Lakers’ first 42 games.

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OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

So, the Lakers have been been a hair worse offensively over the last 18 games, and less than a point per 100 possessions better defensively. That’s not much of a difference. The real difference has been how they’ve performed in close games.

When you’re below .500 with a positive point differential, as the Lakers were after 42 games, you’re typically winning big and losing small. And through Jan. 23, the Lakers were 3-7 in games decided by five points or less. Since then, they’re 5-0.

The final margin of a game is kind of arbitrary, though. And if you look at games that were within five points in the last five minutes, the difference between the Lakers’ first 42 games and their last 18 is even bigger.


*Clutch OffRtg & DefRtg = for possessions in the last five minutes with a point differential of five or less

Though the Lakers’ defense hasn’t been that much better overall, it has been down the stretch of close games. And offensively, the shots are going in. In fact, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Antawn Jamison, Metta World Peace and Earl Clark have combined to shoot 31-for-49 (63 percent) from the field in clutch time since Jan. 25.


You can look at this in two ways. If the glass is half full, you can say that the Lakers were much better than their record when they were 17-25. If it’s half empty, you can say that this 13-5 stretch isn’t as impressive as it may seem. Furthermore, real quality wins have been few and far between. They’re just 3-16 against the eight teams with a winning percentage better than .600.

The last win over one of those teams was a 105-96 victory over the Thunder, who the Lakers visit on TNT at 9:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. They’re 0-9 on the road against teams above .600 thus far.

Still, overall, the Lakers have been a better team on both ends of the floor than the Jazz, the team they’re trying to catch.

When it comes to future schedule, the Lakers play slightly easier opponents, but the Jazz have one fewer road game (11 vs. 12) and one fewer back-to-back (3 vs. 4).

Stay tuned…
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Props to sidthekid871
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby Chillbongo on Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:36 am

1. Kobe playing out of his mind
2. The team is gelling
3. The competition we've faced

I like the improvement, but it really doesn't mean anything if we can't beat teams like the Nuggets/Clippers/Pacers/Spurs. We'll see what happens, but I'll take the winning games against any competition.

Earlier, we weren't even beating the teams we were supposed to beat.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby lakerfan2 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:41 am

Who cares about OffRtg, DffRtg, the only damn number I care about is in the W column.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby therealdeal on Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:45 am

lakerfan2 wrote:Who cares about OffRtg, DffRtg, the only damn number I care about is in the W column.

Yep.

Numbers don't tell the whole story and just because some guy wants to say our OffRtg is slightly worse, doesn't mean anything when you watch the games. When you watch, it's clear that our offense is clicking better as a team.

And defensively the intensity is there even if the numbers don't show it.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby pound4pound1 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:02 pm

what lakerfan2 said
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby GoldenKnight on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:11 pm

lakerfan2 wrote:Who cares about OffRtg, DffRtg, the only damn number I care about is in the W column.


Right? It's obvious we are playing better, much smoother, defense a litter quicker to react. Numbers don't always show the whole story. We watch the team day in & day out & we can see & point out the improvements.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby lakerfan2 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:16 pm

The Lakers are ALWAYS the one team every team guns for.

From the Bobcats to the Heat. Teams change, injuries, etc. Games will be different, we lose close ones we win big ones. There will be a disparity.

So the Lakers beat the Heat by 1 and then Bobcats by 50 does the say anything about stats? It's all skewed.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby c.Lin on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:17 pm

I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that D'Antoni has finally put together a consistent rotation. Guys know when they're coming in and know their roles. They are finally building some chemistry. Shots are falling because guys are setting up and knowing the ball is coming. The playmakers are trusting that shooters will be in position and will knock down shots.

The tough part will be if we make the playoffs, and Pau returns, how it's going to affect the rotation and overall chemistry of the team. Especially since we would most likely go up against the likes of an OKC or SA.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby GoldenKnight on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:20 pm

Also don't forget about Jamison, he's being extremely consistent in what he was brought here to do. Also the emergence of Earl Clark, he has been a little quiet lately, ever since he hurt that finger...
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby V.V.V.V.V. on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:22 pm

Those stats pretty much reflect that we're in the middle of the pack quality-wise. As the season progresses, wins are harder to get. Our offensive and defensive ratings are basically consistent the whole season, since the differences aren't statistically significant. So we've moved down in the rankings offensively despite being the same, which means that the better teams have gotten it together at the end of the season and are doing better than us. We moved up in ranking defensively while staying at the basically same score all year, which reflects that we're doing better than the bad teams at the end if the season. So there is something that comes out of these stats: we're not as good as the better-seeded teams, but we're better than the low-seeded and playoff bubble teams. Which of course reflects our current seeding.

The close-game stuff is too small sample-wise to say anything.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby lakerfan2 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:23 pm

I really hope we keep Pau on the bench. We need a C off the bench and he's going to be the one.

Our starters are clicking and it's working. Our bench still needs work, but with Blake playing better and Jamison playing terrific, we still need that go to scorer down low and need a big body. If Pau can accept that role, we would be VERY, VERY good.

The Lakers as of today, are not contenders. We need the depth and the skill.

Pau has to buy in like Lamar did. He's our X-Factor to going to the next level.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby V.V.V.V.V. on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:26 pm

Yep, PAu homing off the bench would really shore up the 2nd unit.

He needs to accept that role, but on the flipside, he needs to replace Dwight in the final minutes of the 4th.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby Chillbongo on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:34 pm

How many weeks left for Pau?

4-6?

A second unit with Blake, Jamison, Pau, Meeks, and Clark at PF would be noiiiice.

If Gasol comes back, and plays 30 minutes a game, 20 can be with the 2nd unit. But he could play 10ish minutes with some rotation of starters.

That we could use Earl with the 2nd unit for defense and athleticism.

I like a second unit of Blake/Meeks/Jamison/Clark/Pau
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby lakerfan2 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:34 pm

V.V.V.V.V. wrote:Yep, PAu homing off the bench would really shore up the 2nd unit.

He needs to accept that role, but on the flipside, he needs to replace Dwight in the final minutes of the 4th.


No, he needs to play those minutes where Dwight rests in the 4th. Like from 8:00 to 4:00 or 3:00.

1. To avoid the hack-a-dwight.
2. Keep Dwight out of foul trouble to be more aggressive on defense at the end of games.
3. Keep Dwight fresh for the end of games.

I'd take Dwight's defense over Pau's offense in the end of games (although D12 did have the double lapse against ATL).
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby lakerfan2 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:36 pm

Chillbongo wrote:How many weeks left for Pau?

4-6?

A second unit with Blake, Jamison, Pau, Meeks, and Clark at PF would be noiiiice.

If Gasol comes back, and plays 30 minutes a game, 20 can be with the 2nd unit. But he could play 10ish minutes with some rotation of starters.

That we could use Earl with the 2nd unit for defense and athleticism.

I like a second unit of Blake/Meeks/Jamison/Clark/Pau


We need Earls defense and activity for the starters funny to say.

Dwight, Metta, Nash, Kobe are not active guys. Earl is the target of passes when he cuts and he's the only one that does it. When Dwight has to help on defense, Earl is usually there flying to get the rebound to keep offensive rebounds from the opponents.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby Chillbongo on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:48 pm

Right, not disputing that. But I don't see why he can't play 10-15 minutes with the second unit.

He can still play with the starters while Dwight rests. Just play Nash/Kobe/MWP/Clark/Gasol and have Clark stay in for another 10 minutes when Nash/Kobe/MWP are resting.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby dwighthowardsdad on Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:50 pm

Well, we're beating the teams that we're suppose to beat. We may be struggling against the elite competition but for this team & at least this year any sign of progress is a positive in the short & long-term. Kobe is playing out of his mind, Dwight has been focusing on defense & rebounding lately, & Nash has been playing well. In other words, the personnel we have is in the process of finding an identity and playing to their strengths and that's why you have success, IMO.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Tue Mar 05, 2013 1:58 pm

lakerfan2 wrote:Who cares about OffRtg, DffRtg, the only damn number I care about is in the W column.


If all you care about is the win column then you'll be disappointed if we make the playoffs because it will be a guaranteed sweep for the other team if we're not playing like an elite team.

Margin of victory, performance on the road, strength of opponent, etc all these things matter.

There's a stat that takes all of that into account and it's called SRS. It's an amazing stat that does a much better job than W-L of telling you how good a team actually is. Blowing out your opponent, winning on the road, and against good teams will increase your SRS and doing the opposite will decrease it.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _2013.html

Right now the Lakers are 10th in the league in SRS at 1.64 which is sort of impressive considering we JUST got to .500. The Warriors (34-27) on the other hand have a pathetic 0.01 SRS indicating they are not as good as their record indicates. Then you look at the Rockets (33-28) and they are posting a 3.85 SRS which is REALLY good for an 8th seed. They know how to run teams out of the building and it makes them dangerous.

I'd like to see us start beating some good teams on the road and blowing out some opponents to convince me we're for real. We won't stand a chance against anyone in the first round if we have to rely on miracle performances from Kobe to beat the Hawks at home.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby lakerfan2 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:03 pm

Of course, but how can you measure a team that has barely played together?

This season has been plagued with injuries and drama that we haven't even got a chance to determine what this team is capable of.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby karacha on Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:05 pm

The chemistry is better and both offense and defense are smoother. I though that much was obvious. We're not the best -- but we're definitely not among the worst. Right now, we're above average, possibly approaching "very good" category if we can win more games on the road IMO. This is all without Pau, obviously. With him, we're even better.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby Lakerjones on Tue Mar 05, 2013 4:01 pm

By playing a lot harder and better. Not rocket science here. They need to keep on the winning 2 out of every three games track. They can do it. Win 14 lose 8. Or maybe get ambitious and win 15, lose 7. That would make 45 wins. I think that will get us the 8 spot. Won't be easy and we need Utah or GS to drop a little.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby abeer3 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 4:25 pm

a lot of those close losses earlier were furious comebacks that fell short when the team ran out of gas. they've stopped getting down huge in every game. that's a big difference that these stats don't capture.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby JGC on Tue Mar 05, 2013 7:03 pm

lakerfan2 wrote:Who cares about OffRtg, DffRtg, the only damn number I care about is in the W column.


Yeah but you can look at numbers like that to better gauge whether you're likely to get more wins or more losses in the future. It's using other stats as a predictor of wins.

Wins don't take things like strength of schedule, margin of victory and stuff like that that is important in to account. Two teams can both be 0-5, but if one team lost every game by 30 points and the other lost every game by 1 pt, the team losing by less is more likely to win more going forward.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby abeer3 on Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:20 pm

abeer3 wrote:a lot of those close losses earlier were furious comebacks that fell short when the team ran out of gas. they've stopped getting down huge in every game. that's a big difference that these stats don't capture.



knew that was going to come back to bite me.
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Re: How are the Lakers 13-5 record in their last 18 games?

Postby Maluco Beleza on Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:28 pm

although playing great they still have played a bunch of sorry teams.

and see what happens when they play 1 of the best...insert tonights game.
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