How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby BruinLaker87 on Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:28 am

I was thinking about what the FO's approach might be to convince Dwight he should stay/this season was just bad luck (not saying Dwight won't stay, I think he will - but this is how the thought popped in my mind)...the FO would probably make an argument about how much promise the team would have had if it weren't for CRAP luck.

So, I ask -

If we had MDA from the preseason, with a full training camp...

Dwight wasn't hobbled...(not saying 2009 dwight, but just playing like he is NOW).
No injuries to Nash, Kobe, Metta, Blake, Jordan Hill, Jamison, Pau...

How good do you think this team would be? Call me crazy, but I think that if we had GOOD luck in terms of injuries (not average - but GOOD, i.e., maybe a total of 20-25 games missed by our starters instead of 100+), we could easily be #1 or #2 seed in the west. 56-60 wins. We've had a VERY solid record, despite injuries, since being 17-25 and the "memphis meeting".

I think we'd probably still fall to MIA, but it'd be damn close.

Which gives me a TON of optimism for next season...

You guys agree?
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby karacha on Mon Apr 15, 2013 5:51 am

At least 10 more then we have now.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby abeer3 on Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:04 am

no injuries at all (unrealistic with a roster this old)? 60 wins.

what if they just didn't have to play morris/duhon at the point for 2 months? i think that's another 5-6 wins. then not losing hill for the season pretty early might be another few wins. i think somewhere in the low 50s without the injuries to nash, blake, and hill, in other words.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby BruinLaker87 on Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:56 am

So if everyone agrees that we'd be in the top 3 to win it all, then riddle me this:

why the hate for Jim Buss? Isn't it just blind irrational fan-anger? trying to find a scapegoat?

The only legitimate bone we have to pick are the coaching decisions. brown wasn't a great choice, but what can we say about the fact that they didn't sign a guy who is banging his sister, wanted $12M and a piece of the franchise...oh ya, and we had another coach whose full salary we had to pay.

I think the FO did an amazing job of getting together a championship-level squad this year. From meeks to hill to jamison and the nash+howard signings...they honestly did a great job. it was crap luck.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby karacha on Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:47 am

They simply made a mistake of putting together a very old roster. Injuries happen, but younger teams don't get injured as much, in general. All our 30+ guys were injured at one point or another.

That's just my opinion. But then... I have not complained about Mitch (he's a legend), MDA (he's not great, but he is definitely not a horrible coach) or even Jim. I'm sure Mitch has a good plan in place for summer 2014. Can't wait. :man9:
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby charvin on Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:16 am

That gripe is enough on its own. Great squad, poor coach and vice versa doesn't usually end up with a high probability of winning it all.

BruinLaker87 wrote:So if everyone agrees that we'd be in the top 3 to win it all, then riddle me this:

why the hate for Jim Buss? Isn't it just blind irrational fan-anger? trying to find a scapegoat?

The only legitimate bone we have to pick are the coaching decisions. brown wasn't a great choice, but what can we say about the fact that they didn't sign a guy who is banging his sister, wanted $12M and a piece of the franchise...oh ya, and we had another coach whose full salary we had to pay.

I think the FO did an amazing job of getting together a championship-level squad this year. From meeks to hill to jamison and the nash+howard signings...they honestly did a great job. it was crap luck.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby therealdeal on Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:31 am

Interesting thread and I think you're going to get a lot of negative impact when people catch on to your point.

The truth is people need someone to blame when the s*** hits the fan. It's easier than accepting that sometimes life breaks this way.

I think the FO is to blame a little bit when they had opportunities to bring in help and they didn't. Did they build a Champion on paper? Of course. But once the injury bug hit, they had difficult choices to make and some of them were the wrong choices. Letting go of Goudelock and Douglas-Roberts was bad. Not signing another big when Hill went out, then Pau, with Dwight struggling to regain form. Not signing someone else who could help create from the perimeter when Nash went down and we had to rely on Duhon/Morris.

They did a great job, but then they stopped doing a great job. They had some chances with this roster to find Kobe help and they couldn't/didn't.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby Chillbongo on Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:48 am

Well as impressed as I am about the W last night, I'm still not convinced that we're put together for the 1, 2 or 3 seed. I still think that our personnel is lacking.

We don't have shot creators, we don't have young enough guys that can hustle and provide energy, and in my honest opinion, we still don't have an ideal, or even good coach for the job. He's satisfactory. We're the Lakers.

I still think Jim has made terrible decision, all I can hope is that he learns while he goes. Can't expect someone to be perfect but can expect them to learn from mistakes.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby purp n gold on Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:52 am

With the way this team has played, I can't say more than 49 wins. Our team has numerous problems, but one of them is effort - training camp wouldn't have fixed this.This team came into the season thinking success would just let itself in through the front door. Urgency had to be instilled very early on this season. I have my doubts that Mike "everything's fine, Kobe's Kobe and Dwight is Dwight" D'Antoni would motivate this team.

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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby Finwë on Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:54 am

Won't speculate on a # of Ws but I'd definitely be more than now. Probably around the 49-55 mark
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby JGC on Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:55 am

50-55 wins. I'd say we're about a 4-5 seed without injuries. We're too old, and we don't really have a roster built for any particular offense. Triangle could have worked but that isn't really utilizing Nash's talents. Obviously, run and gun is not it.

You don't slip from the top spot to a borderline non-playoff team IMO because you were without your 3rd and 4th best players even if they are HOF caliber players. Especially when you factor in that your two best players were arguably top 5 players over the past 2 seasons prior. I mean, most teams don't even have one top 5 player let alone two!

Do I think Miami, without Bosh and Chalmers for half the season, would almost miss the playoffs? Nope. I think they'd fall several spots in the standings though.

As I've said from the preseason when I could see this team play together, the roster is no doubt flawed, but it shouldn't take too much to get it fixed. Just gotta focus on getting the right role players.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby Weezy on Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:57 am

I don't believe we'd have won that many more, I'd say we'd be a 4th or 5th seed at best. We lacked chemistry for a long, long time, we're an old team that can't keep up with the top teams of the league, we lack enough shooters to really free Dwight up, and our defensive effort has been terrible more than it's been good. You can't take injuries out of it though, it's part of the game, and it's part of putting together an ancient team. IF you do though, I still don't think we can hang with younger, quicker teams, and we certainly can't outshoot high scoring ones.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby Doc Brown on Mon Apr 15, 2013 11:28 am

Washington
@Atlanta
@Phoenix - twice
@Toronto
Philly
Denver
@Cleveland
Utah
Orlando
@Sacto
Dallas

12 games that we should have won over the course of the season. Given that teams blow games throughout the season, I'd say we should have won 8-9 of those games listed above.

53-55 win team.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby Rooscooter on Mon Apr 15, 2013 1:10 pm

Weezy wrote:I don't believe we'd have won that many more, I'd say we'd be a 4th or 5th seed at best. We lacked chemistry for a long, long time, we're an old team that can't keep up with the top teams of the league, we lack enough shooters to really free Dwight up, and our defensive effort has been terrible more than it's been good. You can't take injuries out of it though, it's part of the game, and it's part of putting together an ancient team. IF you do though, I still don't think we can hang with younger, quicker teams, and we certainly can't outshoot high scoring ones.


I'm with you on this one.... while injuries are an issue with this season it's unrealistic to think a roster like this one would avoid them. Age and the glaring lack of depth would dictate that we would have nagging injuries to key players all year.

Even if we don't have the injuries we are not an athletic team... we lack meaningful depth and have no floor balance with our starters. Nash is as bad as any of his recent predecessors at stopping quick/fast point guards and Pau's decline is evident to anyone who will see it.

Fans need to separate the prime games of our players from the current versions of them. Kobe, MWP, Pau and especially Nash are not close to their "Prime selves" any longer. That is where the unrealistic expectations of 70 wins or even 60 come from IMHO....
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby gcclaker on Mon Apr 15, 2013 1:32 pm

In a perfect scenario as visualized? 60 tops...a high third seed perhaps? Not just training camp and good health all around but the all the players are in tune with each other? Let's keep in mind OKC isn't as potent without Harden. San Antonio is older too. The Clippers aren't the smartest when it comes to crunch time. That leaves Denver... Out of the confines of Mile High, are they as dangerous? They likely will not lose as many of the "gimme" games. The caveat on ALL of this is the coach D'Antoni. I don't know if Hee Haw can tie this all together.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby trodgers on Tue Apr 16, 2013 5:32 am

We won 62% of our games LAST year. That projects to 51 wins. If you remove the first five games of this season, LA is 43-33. That's 57%. Since the ASB, we're 19-8. That's 70%. I think this team (with Kobe) is better than its record this season, and I think that 56 wins would be a reasonable number for this season. We'd probably be the third seed.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby Weezy on Tue Apr 16, 2013 10:57 am

I just don't think we're that good at full strength. We haven't been that very much, but when we have been IMO we don't look a ton better. We seem to lack chemistry when all our starters are healthy, Blake seems to play better with the starters than Nash almost, we didn't seem to miss MWP a ton, we played just fine with Pau in and Howard out for a stretch, then we played ok with Pau out and Dwight back. Being at full strength or missing guys we seem to be pretty much the same to me, mediocre to good at best. I don't think this roster fits well together. I think our biggest loss before Kobe went down was honestly Jordan Hill, he changes our bench, our offensive rebounding, our energy, his loss is felt every game. I still don't feel if we were healthy all season that we win more than maybe 10 more games, we'd still lack the same sense of urgency, still be old, still lack shooters and athletes, still have a lot of pieces that don't fit well together. This again is all IMO of course though.

Oh and I think Mike 'Antoni is a crap one trick pony coach who runs too small a rotation and runs players into the ground, doesn't truly value defense or know how to coach it, doesn't like post play, doesn't get the best out of his players, would rather be buddies with players than be a tough coach and I don't think his players respect him, who's never taken a team to the Finals and never will, who actually can hold back talented rosters from being their best, and has to actually change his own coaching style to get out of his players way so they can succeed. I know, 'holy run-on sentence Batman!', but I dislike him so much it's really one big thought.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby therealdeal on Tue Apr 16, 2013 11:27 am

Oh I'm back!

I think you're a little hard on D'Antoni (as are most people). His main problem is that he's stubborn as all Hell. He gets an idea in his head and he doesn't make adjustments. In games, he does alright. I like that he's been less demonstrative than in the past. He's actually made some nice play calls and done a decent job in that department.

As for having to change his scheme, isn't that the sign of a GOOD coach? Someone who is capable of adjusting and changing to fit the roster? I think the problem is that he took so LONG to realize that this was needed. A BETTER coach would have figured this out sooner and dropped his idea for what this team should be.

Another problem is his idea of shortened rotations. I'm actually a fan of the IDEA. But with an older roster it doesn't work and he needs to widen the pool a little bit. Even if it means playing bench guys for stretches that he doesn't really want to play. See the idea is that the shorter the rotation, the more chemistry can be found between those guys on the court. I get that and I appreciate the thought. But with an older roster, it's almost impossible to pull that off. If he weren't so stubborn on this thought process, we might have had a different season. Better? Who knows. But different.

I don't think he's a good coach at all and I think he needs to go based on the fact that it took him TOO LONG to realize his mistakes and that he still hasn't come up with a defensive scheme that the team can utilize. That's unacceptable.

But he has shown some things I didn't think/know he had. He's drawn up some successful plays now that he's let go of his system offensively. He's got our guys playing through the middle very effectively over the last few games. The ball movement is good to excellent on most nights. He deserves some credit for that.

I just hate when people hate on him without acknowledging the things he's done right. To me it feels irresponsible to write a guy off without doing due diligence and realizing he's had his moments this year as well. In my mind the rush to fire him means some people sound silly in their assessment of him (not you, but some) because they haven't thought about EVERYTHING the man does. Good AND bad.

I think with a full season and with a full roster for most of the season we're definitely among the top teams in the West. It turns out Nash/Kobe didn't work well together. Blake seems to be the better fit and that should help us build a better roster going forward. Even if we'd been healthy all year we'd have trouble with OKC and Denver. I think that puts us at 3rd in the West. With or without D'Antoni and with or without Phil Jackson.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby Weezy on Tue Apr 16, 2013 11:39 am

To be fair I don't think Phil could have done much better with a roster this old, this many injuries, and in this West. I just can't stand 'Antoni and think he should never been hired, our franchise deserves better. In all seriousness I give him credit for making adjustments like letting Kobe play PG, playing Earl Clark when he earned a shot, and some smart offensive decisions like running through Pau a lot more. He's not the worst coach in the NBA, I just can't stand him. It'd be like hiring Kevin McHale or Doc Rivers, they're the enemy, I can't stand them, and I'd never accept them as part of our franchise, there are few coaches I have ever disliked more than 'Antoni. I guess that isn't fair to him, but that's how I feel, can't change it, the day he's gone is a happy day for me. Lastly, I don't like shorter rotations, the best teams seem to go at least 8-10 deep.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby Chillbongo on Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:04 pm

therealdeal wrote:As for having to change his scheme, isn't that the sign of a GOOD coach? Someone who is capable of adjusting and changing to fit the roster?

Sure, in a vacuum. But not when said coach was brought in for "his system"...and like you noted takes half the season to acknowledge its failure.

therealdeal wrote:But with an older roster it doesn't work and he needs to widen the pool a little bit. Even if it means playing bench guys for stretches that he doesn't really want to play. See the idea is that the shorter the rotation, the more chemistry can be found between those guys on the court. I get that and I appreciate the thought.


Exactly and not to mention the injuries! Combined 100+ missed games...hardly the time to stick to a 7-8 man rotation.

therealdeal wrote:But he has shown some things I didn't think/know he had. He's drawn up some successful plays now that he's let go of his system offensively. He's got our guys playing through the middle very effectively over the last few games. The ball movement is good to excellent on most nights. He deserves some credit for that.


I'll take it.

therealdeal wrote:I just hate when people hate on him without acknowledging the things he's done right. To me it feels irresponsible to write a guy off without doing due diligence and realizing he's had his moments this year as well. In my mind the rush to fire him means some people sound silly in their assessment of him (not you, but some) because they haven't thought about EVERYTHING the man does. Good AND bad.


Fine, but I never liked him from the start. Does that allow me to be judged by different criteria? In all seriousness I'm being stubborn and I never really gave him a chance. Then again, he never gave himself a chance. His track record was proven (or should I say, disproven). Like I said, he's a satisfactory coach. A C-. Not failing but nothing to be proud of.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby therealdeal on Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:12 pm

Weezy wrote:To be fair I don't think Phil could have done much better with a roster this old, this many injuries, and in this West. I just can't stand 'Antoni and think he should never been hired, our franchise deserves better. In all seriousness I give him credit for making adjustments like letting Kobe play PG, playing Earl Clark when he earned a shot, and some smart offensive decisions like running through Pau a lot more. He's not the worst coach in the NBA, I just can't stand him. It'd be like hiring Kevin McHale or Doc Rivers, they're the enemy, I can't stand them, and I'd never accept them as part of our franchise, there are few coaches I have ever disliked more than 'Antoni. I guess that isn't fair to him, but that's how I feel, can't change it, the day he's gone is a happy day for me. Lastly, I don't like shorter rotations, the best teams seem to go at least 8-10 deep.

Yeah the rotation idea is good in theory, but not really in execution. When a team goes that limited, you're underutilizing some of your talent and overutilizing some of it. To the point of such extreme that the two become polar opposites.

The best teams may not carve out minutes for the 9th and 10th man, but those guys will sub in for a few minutes every night. It gives them more confidence and it gives the team more rest. I'm okay with an 8-9 man rotation and I think honestly we probably would have had that if we'd stayed healthy, but the rotations as he runs them just can't work. Whether that's a roster problem or his problem isn't really important. I just think if we had Nash/Bryant/Artest/Gasol/Howard/Blake/Meeks/Clark/Jamison/Hill at this point in the season those guys would likely all be getting run to some degree.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby karacha on Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:14 pm

He's not a C- coach in this league. He's a "B League" coach and that's all. Not among the best, definitely not the worst. He's doing what he can, which is obviously not the same as saying "Phil is doing everything he can" but it is unfair to compare MDA to Phil, and it's true that we are all spoiled.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby therealdeal on Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:15 pm

Chillbongo wrote:
therealdeal wrote:As for having to change his scheme, isn't that the sign of a GOOD coach? Someone who is capable of adjusting and changing to fit the roster?

Sure, in a vacuum. But not when said coach was brought in for "his system"...and like you noted takes half the season to acknowledge its failure.

therealdeal wrote:But with an older roster it doesn't work and he needs to widen the pool a little bit. Even if it means playing bench guys for stretches that he doesn't really want to play. See the idea is that the shorter the rotation, the more chemistry can be found between those guys on the court. I get that and I appreciate the thought.


Exactly and not to mention the injuries! Combined 100+ missed games...hardly the time to stick to a 7-8 man rotation.

therealdeal wrote:But he has shown some things I didn't think/know he had. He's drawn up some successful plays now that he's let go of his system offensively. He's got our guys playing through the middle very effectively over the last few games. The ball movement is good to excellent on most nights. He deserves some credit for that.


I'll take it.

therealdeal wrote:I just hate when people hate on him without acknowledging the things he's done right. To me it feels irresponsible to write a guy off without doing due diligence and realizing he's had his moments this year as well. In my mind the rush to fire him means some people sound silly in their assessment of him (not you, but some) because they haven't thought about EVERYTHING the man does. Good AND bad.


Fine, but I never liked him from the start. Does that allow me to be judged by different criteria? In all seriousness I'm being stubborn and I never really gave him a chance. Then again, he never gave himself a chance. His track record was proven (or should I say, disproven). Like I said, he's a satisfactory coach. A C-. Not failing but nothing to be proud of.

I appreciate that both you and Weezy at least acknowledge his positives and the fact that he's not the worst. He's probably a C like you said.

Like I said above, I think the EXTREME shortened rotation at THIS point in the season is due to lack of personnel... Earlier in the season I'd say it was his fault. But at the point where we literally had half the team banged up or missing it's the fault of both the coach AND the roster.

The 7 man rotation was never something I was a fan of. I think at the very least you have to work 8 men in and I'd be okay with it. With this roster FULLY HEALTHY we could have gone 10 deep, but we literally never got the chance to get that started.
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby karacha on Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:18 pm

BTW, what is our record with MDA as our coach? With all these injuries, no true system in place, no training camp etc? I bet it's above .500. And after the All-star game, once we were actually able to build something resembling on-court chemistry?
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Re: How Many Wins in 2012-13 if Training Camp+No Injuries?

Postby therealdeal on Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:22 pm

karacha wrote:BTW, what is our record with MDA as our coach? With all these injuries, no true system in place, no training camp etc? I bet it's above .500. And after the All-star game, once we were actually able to build something resembling on-court chemistry?

Well we're 44-38.

We started 1-4.

So his record is 43-34.
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