Laker Summer FAQ (Read 1st post on pg. 1, then ask Qs, thx)

Laker Summer FAQ (Read 1st post on pg. 1, then ask Qs, thx)

Postby Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 7:24 pm

Here’s my annual in-depth look at Laker off-season possibilities discussing trades, free agency and the draft. I'll try to hit on key questions and address scenarios that are coming up on the board.

Key Dates
Lottery: May 23
Draft: June 28
Moratorium: July 1-10
Vegas Summer League: July 6-15 @ UNLV
Free agents can be officially signed on: July 11
Hawaii exhibition games: October 9, 11
1st California x game: Bakersfield October 18 vs. Seattle

1 - Trades

1. How much salary needs to go out in trades?
For trades with teams over the cap the salaries dealt need to be within 25% plus 100K. Multi-player trades are more likely than players being dealt solo. Getting just KG or just JO isn’t very likely, Minnesota or Indy want to attach bad contracts they can’t get rid of otherwise.

Teams are also reluctant to take more players in than they send out, usually lack the roster space. So while you can match salaries in a 5:1 trade to get KG it’s pipe. A 4:2 trade maybe, but if the other team has to take in three more players than they send out it’s very unlikely to happen. If you can keep it within two, including draft picks.

2. How much Laker salary has to go out for KG, JO, Gasol, Kidd, etc?
LA contracts out minimum before July 1 for:
KG: 16.8
KG and a Minny PG: ~21.2
JO: 14.4
JO and Tinsley: 19.2
Gasol: 9.8
Kidd: 14.4
Artest: 5.7

Laker salaries before July 1:
Odom 12.35
Kwame 8.6
Radmanovic 5.2
Cook 1.8 (poison pill contract status, very hard to trade)
Bynum 1.7
Evans 1.62
Sasha 0.97
Farmar 0.94
Turiaf 0.66
#19 pick 1.07 (after signing)

LA contracts out minimum after July 1 for:
KG: 17.6
KG and a Minny PG: 22.4
JO: 15.7
JO and Tinsley: 20.8
Gasol: 10.9
Kidd: 15.7
Artest 6.2

Laker salaries after July 1:
Odom 13.25
Kwame 9.4
Radmanovic 5.6
Bynum 1.8
Cook 1.75 (BYC - counts 3.5 in to other team, 1.75 out for LA)
Evans 1.74
Sasha 1.76
Farmar 1.00
Turiaf 0.77
#19 pick 1.07 (after signing)
S&T possible with free agents: Walton, Mihm, Shammond, McKie, Smush.

3. Is let them gel an option?
From the LA Times Laker blog: Asked point blank whether the team can just sit back and wait for Andrew Bynum and Jordan Farmar to develop, Kobe said, ``No. Something needs to be done.''

Deal or No Kobe, Mondays on NBC before Heroes. Kobe can opt out summer 2009. Just use the MLE and add a draft pick then Kobe and Jackson will be furious. Bad idea.

4. Noooooooooo I want to keep Odom, Bynum, Kwame, fill in the sacred cow. Can they get what they need inside and still keep my boy?!!!?
KG trades would likely require all three.

Keep Bynum scenario 1 – Odom, Kwame, 19 for JO and Tinsley. Possible if no one else is willing to take Tinsley off Indy’s hands. Problem is Isiah wants JO too and he’s never met a contract he didn’t like. The competition will define if taking on Tinsley is enough or if Bynum has to be in a deal to close it.

Keep Bynum scenario 2 – Whatever Odom, Kwame and 19 can get, which should be a lot.

Keep Odom scenario 1 – Kwame, Bynum and 19 for Gasol. If Memphis doesn’t get Oden in the draft maybe they consider this. However if West comes on to LA in a consulting role Gasol will likely not be considered.

Keep Odom scenario 2 – Kwame, Bynum, Radmanovic, 19 for JO. Serious reach though. Indy has to keep Tinsley, doesn’t get Odom, and has to take Radman’s ugly K. Very tall price to pay just to get Bynum. Very slim chance of happening.

Keep Odom scenario 3 – Fail to get a big and just deal Bynum, Kwame, 19 and change for whatever they can get. That can add a quality starter, but probably not the 2-way big they need most.

Keep Kwame scenario – Bynum, Odom, Radmanovic, 19 for JO and Tinsley. LA losing both Bynum and Odom while keeping Kwame is overpaying and goes against what LA, Jackson and Kobe all want to do. Kwame is an attractive trade piece to both sides.

5. What are the Lakers chances of trading for Kevin Garnett? Can he opt out and sign here for MLE?
Garnett can’t opt out until summer 2008. As for trades, Minnesota likely won’t unless KG demands it. Reportedly when Kobe talked to Jermaine O’Neal he told JO not to make KG’s mistake. If that report is true sounds like Kobe has already given up on KG demanding out.

Minnesota papers are claiming Garnett will sit down and talk contract extension with Glen Taylor.

“Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor won't talk about it, nor will Kevin Garnett, but the gossip around the Target Center is that Garnett recently talked to Taylor about a contract extension. Garnett is signed through next season, then becomes a free agent.”

Also had this:

“Taylor also said:

• He intends to go forward without trading All-Star Kevin Garnett, echoing what McHale said last week.”

Doesn’t look good. It’s on Garnett to demand a trade out and he’s shown no signs of doing that

6. But if Minnesota gets an offer they can’t refuse then what?
Then he may go to Phoenix. Rumors the Suns may offer Marion, 4th pick and change for KG. Depends on what pick Atlanta gets in the lottery. If the Hawks are top 3 they keep the pick, 4 or later it goes to the Suns. Root for the Hawks to do well in the lottery.

7. Can the Lakers compete with that by offering Bynum?
Bynum, Odom and Kwame can compete, but Minnesota has far less fan resistance to a Phoenix deal than a trade to the hated Lakers. Also includes a high lottery pick. The rumored Suns deal is sexier and easier, but the rumor also goes against Phoienix plans to avoid the tax.

An LA deal would be something like Bynum, Odom, Kwame, 19 for KG and one of James, Hudson or Jaric. Which would necessitate landing a center in free agency or trade. Jamal Magloire with the MLE would be at the top of that list.

But again what’s much more likely is Garnett stays put. McHale was kept on and this is his last chance to build around KG. T-Pups will need to be blown away in a trade to move Garnett.

8. OK then what about Jermaine O’Neal?
JO’s a possibility. Donnie Walsh is retiring in Indy, Carlisle has been fired, Bird will want to put his stamp on a new team. Marc Stein of ESPN keeps hinting that JO wants to go to LA and that it can happen. Isiah Thomas says he’ll make a run at JO as well, but given his relationship with Bird, good luck Zeke. After the Mavs meltdown Dallas may make a JO run as well, but rumors have them going after Kidd.

9. Would the Lakers have to give up Bynum to get JO?
Comes down to whether the bidders for O’Neal are all willing to take Tinsley. New York doesn’t care about bad salaries, neither does Cuban. So if everyone says yeah we’ll take Tinsley then LA probably has to offer Bynum to get JO.

10. Does it have to be Tinsley? What about Murphy or Daniels?
Has to be Tinsley. They’ve tried to deal him for two years, only way they get rid of him is attaching him to JO. A buyout would be mighty expensive since Tinsley is under contract through 2011. Tinsley has off court trouble, has missed 80 games in three years and he hasn’t played well. Tinsley is the likely ante to then bid for O’Neal.

11. What would a JO deal look like?
Odom, Kwame and 19 for JO and Tinsley works in salaries and value, but if Indy demands Bynum instead then it gets very tricky. The Lakers would probably try a deal that doesn’t include Odom or Tinsley, offering Bynum, Kwame, Radmanovic and 19 for JO. If Indy demands Bynum and Odom LA may well decide that’s just too high a price to pay.

The key is if Indy insists on Bynum and insists on LA taking Tinsley, then the Lakers can only match salaries by including Odom. At that point talks fall apart.

To get JO will require sharp negotiation from Kupchak to get value but not overpay. Bynum, Kwame, Radmanovic and 19 just for JO; or Odom, Kwame and 19 for JO and Tinsley. Any Indy requests for Bynum and LA taking Tinsley blow up any deal.

The Lakers can try to take it to a blockbuster by offering Bynum, Odom, Kwame and 19 for JO, Tinsley and Granger. Total facelift for Indy though, all the faces of the franchise are gone, makes it unlikely.

12. What about a deal for Pau Gasol?
Gasol has demanded out regardless of what they do in the draft. There’s more of a chance at Pau once Jerry West steps down in Memphis, provided Logo doesn’t then join LA as a consultant, he’s not high on Gasol.

If Memphis gets Oden, LA could offer Odom and 19 IF they’re more sold on Gasol than Odom. If Memphis doesn’t land Oden then Bynum, Kwame and 19 may work. Question is if the Lakers are sold on Gasol’s toughness, and if he’s enough of a name to satisfy the need for starpower in LA.

9. How about Camby? Denver wants to avoid luxury tax.
Doubt Denver deals with LA, direct competitors for western playoff seeds. To get the immediate tax help Denver seeks they’ll want to trade with a team that has cap room, Orlando, Charlotte, Milwaukee. Camby could work well in Orlando teaming up with Dwight Howard.

10. Artest?
On the Maloofs. They don’t want to deal Artest here unless they have no choice or get a deal they can’t refuse. Isiah may make an Artest run and has the interchangeable pieces that could appeal to Sac, especially Channing Frye. If LA had to compete with that they can try going big with Odom in a Bibby/Artest deal but I don’t see it. Bibby and Artest need to be separated and LA won’t deal Odom without getting a shotblocking inside scoring big in return.

Artest will be a waiting game. If the Kings don’t get any takers for Artest then LA can make lowball offers like Kwame, 19 and Sasha for Artest and Salmons, or wait it out longer and hope Sac buys out Artest and then LA signs him for MLE.

If New York offers Frye and change and LA commits to making a serious run at Artest then what? Some here would say Walton and 19 for Artest, but LA is head over heels for Luke and definitely want to re-sign him.

Jackson’s latest comments about Dennis Rodman point straight to wanting Artest. Fits the needs, triangle experience, and most importantly would not cost Odom or Bynum. First move is up to the Maloofs.

11. Any other defenders, Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace in S&T?
Smith IS the Atlanta Hawks, carries the team at the gate, not available. Charlotte has made re-signing Wallace their top priority. They have no interest in dealing him.

12. What about a second option shooter like Pierce, TMac or Rashard Lewis?
Pierce has lost the edge off his once complete game, getting knocked for being too selfish and not taking smart shots. Kobe needs an inside scorer to balance the floor, Pierce isn’t the right fit, and he’s owed 75M over the next four years. TMac is not available. Shard is talking with Seattle next week, his girlfriend is pregnant and from the pacific northwest, now he prefers to stay but money will determine where he goes. Seattle could look to an S&T, but to bring in a high level point guard, which leaves out LA. They like Wilcox at 4 so Odom doesn’t do much for them. If Lewis leaves Ray Allen could go on the block, but LA would have to give up Bynum to land him.

13. On to the point guards, will LA go after Kidd, Dre, Bibby?
Kidd would require Bynum or Odom, LA’s unlikely to go big for small. Dallas is making a run at Jason. Billy King wants to keep Dre, likes the idea of a vet point leading a group of kids. Bibby goes back to the Maloofs not being willing to deal with LA.

14. What about a sign and trade deal for a free agent point like Billups or Mo Williams?
Very unlikely. Billups is looking for max money or close to it and if Detroit goes deep into the playoffs Dumars will pay what it takes to keep Chauncey. Billups goes to most money, MLE is total pipe. Milwaukee may make an offer to Billups, but assuming that fails they keep Mo.

15. Who else could be a target?
Portland may shop Zach Randolph. Zebo together with Jarrett Jack could interest LA. Problem is Zach plays no defense, isn’t a great passer and has a huge contract. Some have mentioned Kenyon Martin, but he’s too great a health risk with that contract. Kirilenko is getting love on the board but Utah still values him highly and would want Odom or Bynum. LA passes.

16. So what’s real, what’s possible?
JO:
Bynum, Kwame, Radmanovic, 19 for Jermaine O’Neal and cheap filler (Williams, Harrison or Greene)
Odom, Kwame and 19 for Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley

Kwame, 19 and change could be shopped leaguewide if they fail to land JO. Hard to say what it could retrieve. Best case would be Artest and Salmons if Sac had no other offers and the maloffs were willing to deal him here. Maybe Channing Frye and a bad contract from New York. Some talk of Luke Ridnour or Earl Watson being shipped out with Johan Petro, but they want a quality point back. Chris Duhon could be on the block with Sefolosha’s development in Chicago.


Prediction: The Lakers focus on JO and then it comes down to whether LA will part with Bynum. If so they may have a deal. imo they'll also watch what happens with Artest in Sac. If neither of those targets materialize then Kwame and 19 goes on eBay for best available and LA weighs the offers, if any. As it stands now imo it's JO or bust, another home run swing attempt.


Part 2 – Free Agency

17. What can the Lakers spend in free agency?

LA is over the cap and can only use the MLE (Mid-Level Exception) starting at ~5.2 and the vet minimum (1.2 down depending on years in the league). The BAE (formerly LLE) was used on Shammond last year and can’t be used this year.

18. What free agents are too expensive for LA to get?
Chauncey Billups 10 to max
Vince Carter 10 to max
Rashard Lewis 10 to max
Gerald Wallace 8-10
Mo Williams 7-9

19. Payton and Malone signed here for MLE or less, why can’t someone do that this year?
This is Chauncey’s last chance to get the big bucks and he’s been underpaid for years. Vince is about himself not rings. Shard is still young, optimal earning years. Wallace has yet to be paid more than 5M. Mo is about to get his first big payday.

20. What’s the story with restricted free agents? Why can’t LA get them?
If a free agent is restricted his current team can match to automatically keep him. Even if the player wanted to leave all his team has to do is match and he stays no matter what.

If the Lakers make an offer to a restricted free agent then their MLE is tied up, can’t be offered to any other player until the player’s current team decides to match or not. Teams have seven days to match and typically milk the time period dry. Being clinically risk averse, Kupchak is unlikely to tie up the MLE for a week on the chance that a team may not match. Most RFAs stay put so Kupchak’s risk aversion, for once, is justified.

21. So restricted free agents need to be crossed off the wish list?
Yeah, with just a few exceptions the RFAs that can play are kept.

Quality RFAs expected to stay:
Charlie Bell (Mil)
Andray Blatche (Wash)
Chuck Hayes (Hou)
Jarvis Hayes (Wash)
Ersan Ilyasova (Mil)
Amir Johnson (Det)
Darko Milicic (Orl)
Andres Nocioni (Cle)
Travis Outlaw (Por)
Sasha Pavlovic (Cle)
Anderson Varejao (Cle)

22. Charlie Bell?!? But he’s at the top of my list! Can Milwaukee still go after the top free agents while giving Bell MLE money?
Milwaukee only has 36M in committed salary for next year if Boykins opts out as expected. They can match an MLE offer for Bell and still have a max slot available.

From a recent online chat with the Bucks beat writer:

I think the possibility of Mo and Charlie Bell coming back is pretty good. Bell is restricted, so the Bucks can match any offers, and they really want him back. They also want Williams, and it could be difficult to land another front-line point guard if they lose him.

I think Williams and Bell are in the plans. Boykins has a player option but likely will sign elsewhere. Harris said Bell will be working out at the point guard spot this summer and handling the ball as much as possible. He said the plan is to play him at the point more often next year and as a backup 2 guard, but not so much at the 3 position where he is always giving up 4 to 5 inches to the player he is defending, and is often being posted up.

Sorry guys, looks like you have to let go of the Charlie Bell pipe. And yeah that does suck out loud.

23. Any restricted free agents that can play who might be available?
Mickael Pietrus. Nellie isn’t fully sold on him. Word before the playoffs was they would let Air France walk if he got an MLE offer. Now they may look to S&T him for a big, or bring him back given the chemistry they’ve developed. They’re more committed to re-signing Matt Barnes than keeping Pietrus, so in theory Mickael could be had.

24. What’s the full free agent list?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2654216
Ignore the partially guaranteed salary listings.

25. Anybody else we should cross off wish lists?
Grant Hill. He’s said it’s Orlando, immediate contender, or retirement.

26. So who CAN the Lakers get with the MLE?

1. PG

Steve Blake (Den) Unrestricted. The Nuggets want to re-sign Blake but it’ll cost them MLE money and they want to avoid the tax. Bidding war will drive up the price. Karl is pushing management to ante up to keep Blake.

Jason Hart (LAC) Unrestricted. Did a solid job for the Clips. Good passer, good defender, can hit the open 3, but he lacks the vet seasoning Jackson prefers. Phil may not have a choice.

Jannero Pargo (NO) Player option. Jackson loves him.

Keyon Dooling (Orl) Player option. Good size at 6-3, can shoot when he gets minutes, but a poor passer with a weak ATO ratio.

Outside of the Box – Derek Anderson (Cha) Unrestricted. A vet combo guard with solid playoff experience who had a renaissance in Charlotte this year. Has some point skills, a 10 assist game this year, low turnovers. Had a 29 point game this year while going 6-8 from 3 . Great size at 6-5. Can lose some weight after an MLE signing to gain some speed to defend at 1. Long arms, pretty good defender. Downside: 33 and injury prone. Mr. High Ankle Sprain.

2. SG
Bonzi Wells (Hou) Player option. Only a year removed from Bonzi owning SA in the playoffs. With consistent minutes he can be a valuable 6th man on both ends, IF he can keep his head straight.

Matt Carroll (Cha) Unrestricted. Laker killer has a money 3 shot and can hit his ft’s.

Eddie Jones (Mia) Unrestricted. Still has some left in the tank. Solid defender, 3 stroke, smart, close to Kobe, but Shaq wasn’t wrong about EJ disappearing in the playoffs.

Outside of the Box – Kelenna Azubuike (GS) Unrestricted. Warriors may not have the cash or the roster room to keep him. Athletic and powerful finisher that can get to the line, hit 3’s, rebounds well and can defend (played for Tubby at UK). When he was forced into starting after all the early injuries he had a 28 point game for the Dubs. Downside: turnover machine.

3. SF
Ruben Patterson (Mil) Unrestricted. Great year for the Bucks. Excellent defender, plays with toughness and intensity LA lacks, triangle experience.

James Posey (Mia) Unrestricted. Clutch player that can hit 3’s and defend, championship experience. Needs consistent minutes, wasn’t in great shape this year. Heat probably hope to use him in S&T so he may hold off on signing until he sees what Miami can do. Popular MLE target so he'll be looking to start, which definitely hurts LA.

Matt Barnes (GS) Unrestricted. Playing phenomenal ball in Oakland. Emphasized today he definitely wants to stay and the Warriors know how important he is to the team and the chemistry. They’ll use the MLE to keep Barnes.

Desmond Mason (NO) Unrestricted. Proven scorer that can get to the line and board. Expected to return to Seattle for their MLE.

Jason Kapono (Mia) Unrestricted. Jackson wanted to draft him, Kapono was picked just ahead of LA and the Lakers took Luke instead. Unreal percentage from 3 this year.

Ime Udoka (Por) Unrestricted. Sharp defender, reliable glue guy for the Blazers, has some tri experience playing for the Lakers in the SPL.

Morris Peterson (Tor) Unrestricted. Lost his edge and starting job this year. Inconsistent from 3. May just be too old now, or could be ready to recommit and come back in great shape, play great D and stroke 3’s. Risk reward free agency play.

Big FAs in the next section, along with possible vet min targets.

4. PF

Chris Webber (Det) Unrestricted. Great triangle fit as one of the best passing bigs in the league, can’t play D though. Expected to stay with Detroit.

Joe Smith (Phi) Unrestricted. Played well for the Sixers down the stretch. 14/10 in his last 12 games with minutes, including a 26 point night and a 17 rebound game.

Antonio McDyess (Det) Player option. Has been healthy and productive last two years. Will go where he gets money and minutes. Has a 6.4 option for 2007-08 but then free agency, may want to opt out to secure a long term contract.

Mikki Moore (NJ) Unrestricted. Had a great year for the Nets and they want to bring him back. Will take more than a split MLE to get him in LA.

Melvin Ely (SA) Unrestricted. Limited skills. Owns Odom, but after that?Not much.

P.J. Brown (Chi) Unrestricted. Probably retires.

Outside of the box – Maceo Baston (Ind) Player option. Not an MLE player, may want out for more minutes. Effective shotblocker and rebounder in Europe last year for Maccabi Tel Aviv.

5. C

Jamaal Magloire (Por) Unrestricted. After being very overweight most of the year, Mags finally slimmed down at the end of the year and averaged 10/9/1 for the Blazers in his final 15 games, including a 3 block game, pair of 16 board games, 19 pointer. Risk reward, who knows what version of Mags shows up? Native Canadian would like to go to Toronto, but Brian Colangelo’s Euroball blueprint may not be a fit for Magloire.

Brian Skinner (Mil) Team option. Bucks jettison him for cap space. Good rebounder can swat some, not a scoring threat.

Dikembe Mutombo (Hou) Unrestricted. Can still bring the swats and boards, but can he even play in the tri? Doubtful.

27. Any diamonds in the rough available with vet minimum?
Depends on what picks if any the Lakers keep. Available roster slots will determine if the Lakers even need to use vet min. Devean Green and J.R. Pinnock may get second looks. The market may not give much love to Corliss Williamson or Bo Outlaw. Corliss had some nice games to close the year that should push him past vet minimum, but he might take vet min to contend, leaves out LA though unless they can make the impact deal. Alan Anderson of Charlotte, good athlete 6-6/220 swingman that can defend and board. Streak shooter, had a 24 point game in the final week on 10—14 shooting. Downside is to machine.

28. What are the most likely free agent options for LA?
Steve Blake but he’ll be in a bidding war, Jason Hart, Kobestopper. Next level for partial MLE: Bonzi, Eddie, and Derek Anderson as an interesting under the radar combo guard move.

Jamaal Magloire is frequently mentioned on the boards to patch a hole at center if Bynum and Kwame go out, but his lack of passing skills may lead LA elsewhere.

Some will cling tight to the Charlie Bell pipe. Here’s hoping Kupchak has the guts to pursue a restricted free agent and Del’s son makes the wrong call as GM that lands Bell in LA, but it’s a long shot at best.

29. What about holding onto the MLE for players that might be bought out?
May prove to be a wise call. Buyouts could be coming for Steve Francis or if LA is very lucky Ron Artest. This possibility may give LA some pause. If the Lakers fail on initial targets they may decide to just hold the MLE and see what shakes out from buyouts.

Part 3 – Draft

30. Will the Lakers even keep the picks?
At the town hall meeting Kupchak emphasized that the Lakers are not looking to get any younger. The three picks (LA #1, Charlotte #2, LA #2) are all available in trade and will be shopped hard. Chances are pick 19 leaves the building, maybe all three.

31. If they keep the pick, who might the Lakers be interested in at 19?
Early rumors have LA liking Thaddeus Young of Georgia Tech and Jeff Green of Georgetown. Young is an Odom clone all the way down to not having a right. The NASCAR twins, can only go left. Young is very athletic and long, great clay as the scouts say but clay is all he has, raw project coming out after his freshman year. Green is more NBA ready, an excellent passer, solid defender, can be a capable scorer, but he went Casper at the worst possible time in the tournament.

32. What about Nick Young of USC? We need bench scoring.
If he’s still on the board and LA keeps the pick Young should get a good look. Can play on both ends but will need to play more team ball (black hole) and avoid reaching on D to get in quick foul trouble. Projections have him going at 18 so he could be there.

33. Equal time for UCLA, where does Afflalo go?
Draft Express has him going early 2nd before the Laker pick (from Charlotte). If they keep the pick and Afflalo is still there he’d be a great choice, they need his D desperately. Afflalo’s level of D wouldn’t be as stellar at the NBA level, he doesn’t have elite athleticism, but he’d be a huge perimeter D upgrade over anything LA has on the bench now.

34. Who else could be a second round target?
Herbert Hill of Providence, 6-10 eraser.

35. Who might drop n the first round?
Tiago Splitter may drop like a stone. Disappearing act in the Euroleague Final 4 and buyout concerns with Tau, the same team that has imprisoned Luis Scola for years. Splitter may not be able to come to the States for another year, maybe more. Splitter has lost some athleticism from his earlier years as a defense wiz, also faced injury problems. Had some great games in the regular season but the playoff no show will definitely hurt his stock.

36. Any chance of the Lakers moving up? What if they include Bynum, how far up could they go?
No one is cracking the top two. Oden and Durant are franchise players on rookie contracts, the most valuable commodity in the league. So if those two are untouchables, LA doesn’t give up Bynum. I’m known for my Horford wood over the last two years, but for Bynum? Won’t happen. Horford is exactly what LA needs though, off the charts hoop iq, shotblocking rebounding machine.


Final Predictions

Trade – If an impact trade goes down imo it’s a variation of Bynum, Kwame, Radmanovic, 19 for Jermaine O’Neal and low salary change, maybe Oriene Greene, a sharp defending 1. That fails Kwame and 19 is shopped for Artest if they get insanely lucky, otherwise a deal for a mid-level point, maybe Duhon.

Free Agency – If the 1 has to come from free agency, Jason Hart in another Clipper kidnapping. Though I like the DA idea. Kobestopper definitely another option.

Draft – Outta here in some trade.


Thanks for reading.
Last edited by Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Sky
Clublakers Analyst
 
Posts: 6292
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:22 pm
Location: up

Postby Vasashi17 on Sun May 06, 2007 7:29 pm

Hey Sky, I heard that they were thinking about shortening the FA moratorium down to just one week. Is that happening this summer is that a plan put in place for future summers....or did I just hear wrong?

Thx for the FAQ btw....I always learn so much more with these type of threads.
Image
User avatar
Vasashi17
CL Global Moderator
 
Posts: 13018
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2003 11:38 am
Location: Anywhere Purple & Gold

Postby jOeyB7000 on Sun May 06, 2007 7:32 pm

Sky,

What's the deal with Brian Cook's contract? What exactly does "poison pill" contract mean, why is it hard to trade, and why does it count as 3.5 incoming for the other team but only 1.75 outgoing for L.A.? What is BYC?
User avatar
jOeyB7000

 
Posts: 2270
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 3:23 pm
Location: L.A.

Postby AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 7:32 pm

Ive been waiting for you my friend.

Can we chime in? Im not going to wait for your answer, Im just going to post the stuff I posted in another thread here, since this is stickied.

I have a series of proposals in another thread and Im going to paste them below in two different posts.

The second post has what I consider an absolutely phenomenal trade!

Keep a watch out.
Last edited by AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 7:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
AVH

 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:08 pm

Postby AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 7:32 pm

Okay, here's the first set of proposals. Very aggressive. Very doable.
---------------------------------
Im not going to discuss the merits of these ideas. But, I want to summarize a few of them that I have been reading and get your ideas on them for discussion hereafter. They are very generous to other teams as well as helping us become a better more traditionally well rounded team.

All Im going to do is list Whos IN, Whos OUT and the new lineup. You can see by the players, who the trade partner is. These are fair trades. Some more realistic than others, but it all depends on the Busses.

Option 1
Whos IN: Pau Gasol, Magloire MLE, PG at 19,
Whos OUT: Bynum, Kwame, Draft pick or Farmar

Magloire, Mihm
Gasol, Turiaf
Odom, Walton, Vlad
Kobe, Evans
Farmar or Draft Pick, Sasha

Perhaps you can trade Vlad for Luke Ridnour OR Watson as well here. But I didnt add that.

Option 2 (Interesting that I didnt think about this one before)
Whos IN: Kevin Garnett, Mike James, Mark Blount, Magloire MLE
Whos OUT: Odom, Bynum, Kwame, Farmar, 19

Magloire, Blount, Mihm
KG, Turiaf
Walton, Vlad
Kobe, Evans
Mike James, Sasha

Perhaps you might be able to swap Vlad for Marko Jaric as well

Option 3:
Whos IN: Jason Kidd, Magloire MLE
Whos OUT: Bynum, Kwame, Vlad, 19

Magloire, Mihm
Odom, Turiaf
Walton, Evans
Kobe, Sasha
Kidd, Farmar

Option 4:
Whos IN: Jermaine Oneal, Jamaal Tinsley, Danny Granger, Magloire MLE
Whos OUT: Odom, Bynum, Kwame, Farmar, 19

Magloire, Mihm
Jermaine Oneal, Turiaf, Vlad
Danny Granger, Walton
Kobe, Evans
Jamaal Tinsley, Sasha

Option 5:
Whos IN: MLE PG, trade for Swingman defenderOR MLE Swingman defender, trade for PG

Kwame
Odom
Swingman defender
Kobe
New PG

Bench with remaining pieces

Option 6: The Capspace Plan (davidse's backup plan)
Cap projects to nearly 60Mil next summer.

Do NOT resign Walton unless we can trade Vlad for an expiring contract midway this offseason or midway through the next season.

Your roster at the end of NEXT season, assuming we let all our contracts expire, will be:

Kobe - 20M
Odom - 13M
Bynum - 3M
Cook - 3.5M
Farmar - 2M
Evans - 1.5M
Turiaf - 1M
#19 - 1.5M
Mihm - 2.5M
Walton - 4M

Total of 51.5M

The idea here: To clear as much cap space this season between NOW and next offseason, hopefully by Vlad playing well enough whereby we can trade him for an expiring contract and then make a run at either:

KG, JO or Brand (who has an opt out from his last year at 16M and will most likely do so) to hopefully pair with taht group above.

Then you fill the roster with minimum players for the last 3-4 spots and next years draft pick.

The key, as I showed above, is to have roughly 45-47M in payroll and have available 13-15M to offer a player like JO, KG or Brand to join us. With that above, we are at 51.5M. So, we either sign Walton cheaper OR we trade Cook for an expiring also.

OR

The other thing we can do is try and dump Odom to the Celtics for Theo Ratliff and say Delonte West.

Then when Kwame expires next year, our commitments are:

Kobe - 20M
Bynum - 3M
Vlad - 5.5M
Walton - 4M
Mihm - 2.5M
Turiaf - 1M
Farmar -1.5M
#19 - 1.5M
Cook - 3.5M
Evans - 1.5M
Delonte West - 2.5M

That totals 46.5M

That leaves you with a PG, a SG, a SF and your project center Bynum. The only thing missing. THE BIG TIME SUPERSTAR PF!!!!

Its not a terrible idea guys. Its a risk to wait one year and hope one of those guys is available. But, we field the same team this year and let contracts expire and sign a big name. Not all bad.

As for the other trades above guys. ALL very realistic in my opinion.

The key to getting ANY of those trades is Jamaal Magloire at the MLE. If Jamaal signs, we only lose out on one big man in the scenario.

Kwame, Odom, Bynum? Wow, thats a tough trade to turn down no matter who you are, even for KG. And for us? Well, like I said, Magloire is the key to strengthening our interior with that OTHER big man, JO or KG or Pau!
Last edited by AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 7:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
AVH

 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:08 pm

Postby AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 7:33 pm

Here's the second trade. A 3 teamer. And the best trade, I can honestly say, Ive ever put together.

-------------------------------------------------

Lakers

Whos IN: Jermaine Oneal, Jamaal Tinsley, Danny Granger, Magloire MLE
Whos OUT: Odom, Bynum, Kwame, Farmar, 19

Pacers

Whos IN: Bynum, Kwame, Farmar, 19, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff,
Whos OUT: Jermaine Oneal, Jamaal Tinsley, Danny Granger, David Harrison

Celtics

Whos IN: Odom, David Harrison
Whos Out: Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff expiring

Why the deal for all parties:

For the lakers:

They can start this lineup with the above changes:

Magloire, Mihm
Oneal, Turiaf
D.Granger, Walton, Vlad
Kobe, Evans
Tinsley, Sasha

We get our 2 way anchor AND a great athletic DEFENDER in Granger. We get our PG and we sign Magloire for the MLE for our frontcourt

Our bench is not too shabby either.

Also, if we can somehow package Vlad for a pg, that would be great, but as is, its a phenomenal deal.

For the Pacers:

They get RID of Tinsley, Oneal contracts AND they acquire

Bynum, a great prospect center
Gerald Green, a great shooting guard prospect
Farmar, a young full of potential PG
#19 in the draft
and TWO huge expiring contracts totalling over 20M dollars.

They get THAT great core above AND get 15-17M UNDER the salary cap next year.

And all it takes is giving up Granger.

For the Celtics:

Green is a great up and coming shooting guard. BUT, that team, especially if they land the overall #1, would be one impact player away from really contending. That player is Lamar Odom and all it takes is Green to the pacers and the expiring contract of Ratliff

Their projeted lineup would have

West, Rondo
Paul Pierce
Lamar Odom
Al Jefferson
And if they can land the #1 pick, Greg Oden.

Even if they cant. The nucleus, or trio of Odom, Pierce and Jefferson is a great one to conted wiht in the East and Jefferson and Odom can form a great rebounding duo. They already have Perkins to play center if necessary and surely, they will land a top 5 pick to get a big man in the draft like Al Horford. Plus David Harrison is another big body that can be effective for them.

The only thing they give up is the later of Gerald Green for hte now of Lamar Odom.

Its worth it and its somehting Danny Ainge does because he wants to show Boston and Bostonians a winner during his tenure there.

I can't believe how utterly perfect these trades are for EACH team.

Each team gets EXACTLY what they want.

1) The lakers put pieces around Kobe to conted
2) The Pacers rebuild and get WAY under the cap AND obtain phenomenal prospects while doing so
3) The Celtics and Ainge get more impact players for PP and Jefferson with Odom and Harrison coming on board and a top 5 pick surely to follow.
Last edited by AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AVH

 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:08 pm

Postby Giorgio Moroder on Sun May 06, 2007 7:33 pm

Good work Sky. #4 on faq list is really funny on this site. I can't believe Luke Walton and Kwame have groupies. Is narrowed down top just JO and KG or other players in play like Paul P, T-Mac ect?
Giorgio Moroder

 
Posts: 838
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2007 2:03 pm

Postby Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 7:35 pm

Vash - The moratorium is down to a week starting next year. Then it's six days from 2009 on.

Joey - Go here. Explains BYC and poison pill.
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#73
User avatar
Sky
Clublakers Analyst
 
Posts: 6292
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:22 pm
Location: up

Postby AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 7:44 pm

Sky,

In addition to those scenarios,

David has some great suggestions regarding Option 6 - the capspace plan for next summer.

Here's the link. Have a look and tell me what you think of them.

http://www.clublakers.com/forums/a-seri ... 73487.html
AVH

 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:08 pm

Postby Vasashi17 on Sun May 06, 2007 7:54 pm

jOeyB7000 wrote:Sky,

What's the deal with Brian Cook's contract? What exactly does "poison pill" contract mean, why is it hard to trade, and why does it count as 3.5 incoming for the other team but only 1.75 outgoing for L.A.? What is BYC?


I got this cause Sky taught me some summers ago. He'll correct me later, if I get it wrong.

BYC takes the average of salary that remains on the contract. But we already know that the average will be 3.5 cause Cook gets paid that each year for the next 3 years.

When you want to trade a poison pill/BYC contract, it counts as the average salary (in this case 3.5) incoming to whoever we trade for. However it will only count as half of the average (ie 1.75) in outgoing salary that we (the Lakers) move.

So it really limits a trade because you are not getting equal value back (salary wise) in a trade. Plus if you are trading for a player that makes more salary than Cook, but you only want to do a 1 for 1 trade, than the transaction has to follow the CBA rules of 125% +100K.

Lets say a player that makes about $4.5M is someone we want to trade for using Cook's contract. If Cook wasn't a BYC/poison pill player, his $3.5M outgoing salary can get us a max salary of $4.5M cause his contract follows the CBA rules for a legitimate trade.

However since he has a poison pill contract, his salary alone will not enable us to get a $4.5M salary player. The outgoing salary would be $1.75M which would get us a max salary of $2.29M.

But remember the receiving team would not add $1.75M on their payroll...they would be adding $3.5M. In order for them to trade for a $3.5M salary player, they would have to have a minimum salary of $2.7M going to the Lakers.

As you can see Cook's poison pill contract gets us a max salary of $2.29M, but the other team would have to trade a minimum salary of $2.7M to get Cook. Hence, the term poison pill cause its very difficult to move, especially in a one on one transaction.

However a move for a large salary that has Cook as part of a package won't really break a deal cause the large salary creates a higher threshold amount of ingoing/outgoing salary. So Cook being packaged in a large salary deal for JO/KG/Pau would not really break a deal unless the Lakers are trying to send out the minimum in salary to make the deal work.

BTW, BYC means Base Year Compensation. I don't know what the percentages are, but there's an increase from the last salary amount that a BYC player has to make in their first year...then the averages of the total amount over the total years comes into play.

I hope I didn't confuse you further. Actually, I might have confused myself. Sky, where are you?
Last edited by Vasashi17 on Sun May 06, 2007 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Image
User avatar
Vasashi17
CL Global Moderator
 
Posts: 13018
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2003 11:38 am
Location: Anywhere Purple & Gold

Postby Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 7:54 pm

AVH -

Option 1 - Same as keep Odom scenario 1 above.

Option 2 - Not enough salary leaving LA but it's close, need another 1M. Your scenario is the best LA can offer, but I think KG stays put.

Option 3 - Lot to pay for Kidd. Jackson would need to have Jimmy locked in a closet in Montana.

Option 4 - Indy will not give up Granger.

Option 5 - Hard to comment without specifics.

Option 6 - LA will not clear space in hope of signing someone. Chances are too great that FAs are re-signed or dealt. LA will NOT consider that. They will only give up the crown jewels to get what they want in trade. Way too risky for Kupchak. Thats even too risky for Logo, times have changed since the Shaq signing.
User avatar
Sky
Clublakers Analyst
 
Posts: 6292
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:22 pm
Location: up

Postby no_dont on Sun May 06, 2007 7:57 pm

Is LO even valuable. According to reports back when. Walsh didnt want LO for Ron b/c of his contract and years left
HO-BE
User avatar
no_dont

 
Posts: 8956
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2005 11:25 am
Location: Somewhere rolling around in my wheelchair

Postby bhatta on Sun May 06, 2007 8:03 pm

If Kiki is hired in Memphis, he isn't going to trade Gasol.
User avatar
bhatta
Clublakers Lead Analyst
 
Posts: 3557
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 2:15 am

Postby Vasashi17 on Sun May 06, 2007 8:06 pm

Hey Sky, I got another one.

Teams out of the playoffs can make trades still, but its highly unlikely.

However lets say we make a deal with either Minny, Indy or Memphis cause they are all out of the playoffs currently along with us, then do our expiring Ks still count in any trade we make, or are those pieces considered "expired" already?

I'm pretty sure you can't, but I would love for you or anybody else to confirm it.
Image
User avatar
Vasashi17
CL Global Moderator
 
Posts: 13018
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2003 11:38 am
Location: Anywhere Purple & Gold

Postby Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 8:07 pm

no - Odom only has two years left, his contract is not the issue it once was. Lamar's injury trouble is a concern, but he's valued around the league for his versatility. With speed and atheticism being the NBA watchword in the playoffs, Odom's market value will go up.

Vash - Good job you got it. Can't use the expiring contracts, those guys are considered to be free agents. I listed the salaries for deals before July 1, go off that list for scenarios.

Joey - Core concept is when a team over the cap re-signs a player for more than a 20% raise that player turns BYC. Can only get 50% of the player's contract back in trade. Put in place to prevent loopholes or abuses of the collective bargaining agreement.

Rule of thumb on Cook is pretty simple really. He can be in a deal for KG or JO, but not anything else. The salaries in the trade have to be big enough to absorb the 1.75 difference created by BYC.
Last edited by Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Sky
Clublakers Analyst
 
Posts: 6292
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:22 pm
Location: up

Postby AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 8:09 pm

Sky wrote:AVH -

Option 1 - Same as keep Odom scenario 1 above.

Option 2 - Not enough salary leaving LA but it's close, need another 1M. Your scenario is the best LA can offer, but I think KG stays put.

Option 3 - Lot to pay for Kidd. Jackson would need to have Jimmy locked in a closet in Montana.

Option 4 - Indy will not give up Granger.

Option 5 - Hard to comment without specifics.

Option 6 - LA will not clear space in hope of signing someone. Chances are too great that FAs are re-signed or dealt. LA will NOT consider that. They will only give up the crown jewels to get what they want in trade. Way too risky for Kupchak. Thats even too risky for Logo, times have changed since the Shaq signing.


How about the 3 way blockbuster.

Remember, Granger is the last piece they will trade. BUt, that package in that 3 way is simply too good to pass up man.
AVH

 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:08 pm

Postby Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 8:11 pm

I've heard Granger is untouchable. That deal makes them too small. It's a too young Bynum and bad D small 4's next to him. They LOVE Granger, he stays unless it's ridiculous. That deal isn't ridiculous. Also have to remember that Bird is old school. He's not one to embrace smallball.
User avatar
Sky
Clublakers Analyst
 
Posts: 6292
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:22 pm
Location: up

Postby AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 8:15 pm

Sky wrote:I've heard Granger is untouchable.


Yes, just like Bynum is untouchable....except for KG.

But, when you are getting Bynum, Gerald Green, Joran Farmar AND getting rid of Tinsley AND getting 15-17M UNDER the salary cap, he's probably no longer untouchable.

See what I mean.

I don't want your "Granger is untouchable" merits.

What I want is your evaluation of the trade for the merits of all teams regardless of who is touchable or who isn't.

Obviously as Granger is untouchable to the Pacers, so is Bynum to the Lakers and perhaps Green to the Celtics.

But, the key is does each team improve enough whereby they do the deal, THATS my question for you.

To me the answer is an emphatic yes. What's your take on that?
AVH

 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:08 pm

Postby Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 8:16 pm

My take is no. Indy ends up too small and that's not what Bird trusts. At all.
User avatar
Sky
Clublakers Analyst
 
Posts: 6292
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:22 pm
Location: up

Postby AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 8:18 pm

Sky wrote:I've heard Granger is untouchable. That deal makes them too small. It's a too young Bynum and bad D small 4's next to him. They LOVE Granger, he stays unless it's ridiculous. That deal isn't ridiculous. Also have to remember that Bird is old school. He's not one to embrace smallball.


You must have edited this post.

Anyway, thanks for hte answer.

That deal isn't ridiculous though?? Hmm, sorry man. NOt buying that.

The difference between Keeping Granger and trading for Green is the difference between going big for small.

You think any team in history has received a better package than that.

Thats a ridiculous package man. Absolutely ridiculous.

They shed 15-17M of their cap space, their team cancer AND get 3 great young prospects of which one is a Center. Sorry man, but you can't beat that deal in our lifetime.

I mean, really, they could put Bynum at 5 and Murphy at 4 with Dunleavy at 3. They are being paid, arent they.

If you trade away Oneal, you are already committed to trading away the only true size your team will have. Plus, they also get Kwame in this deal too. He isn't chump change in terms of size, last I checked.
AVH

 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:08 pm

Postby Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 8:28 pm

Kwame can't play 4, so they are left with only one big on the floor. Kwame would be gone in a year anyway.

The larger point though is you have to put the GM into the equation and the city. Bird doesn't trust smallball and Indy is not an attactive FA destination. You think it is ridiculous ok cool, I agree to disagree. We've each had our take on the scenario. I need to get back to writing the rest of the FAQ.
User avatar
Sky
Clublakers Analyst
 
Posts: 6292
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:22 pm
Location: up

Postby AVH on Sun May 06, 2007 8:32 pm

Sky wrote:Kwame can't play 4, so they are left with only one big on the floor. Kwame would be gone in a year anyway.

The larger point though is you have to put the GM into the equation and the city. Bird doesn't trust smallball and Indy is not an attactive FA destination. You think it is ridiculous ok cool, I agree to disagree. We've each had our take on the scenario. I need to get back to writing the rest of the FAQ.


Thanks for the response.

One question. How come you are so negative on every scenario posted.

Why not use what little clout you have and propose these babies. You must have at least one high ranking officials' email, no??

Put your bias aside and tell your contacts to make it happen. Believe in me like you didnt when I told you Odom could guard Nash and we should have gone big. :)

I should be an analyst in here man. That way, maybe somehow I can force myself into some contacts with respect :)).

Anyway, finish your FAQ, then we'll talk.
AVH

 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:08 pm

Postby Sky on Sun May 06, 2007 9:02 pm

I'm negative (relative to the posts) because boards tend to be waaaaaaaay too optimistic in scenarios and I think it's much better to be grounded in reality.

When you get unrealistic then you start holding the team to unlikely to impossible or else, and criticism that comes from that point is easily dismissed as fan wishing. Which allows Kupchak to trot out the same lame excuses of the salary cap and it's difficult to trade and fans just don't know or care what other teams want and the CBA, yabba dabba do. Unrealistic scnearios undercut legitimate criticism of Kupchak and also paint false hopes for what LA can do.

The challenge is to come up with trades that do pass the reality test. Then you can hold that up to Kupchak and say why didn't you do this? Legitimate criticism that resonates from a realistic and intellectually honest position carries far far more weight.

People also don't like to be fenced in by realism, they don't want any constraints on scenarios. But that lead to posts here like we can get Chauncey Billups for MLE.

My goal is to get scenarios in here that can happen. Informing folks of the constraints so that they apply them in scenarios. It's fine to think outside the box, but it's taking it too far to expect them to happen just because you can justify it in your mind. Take that 3-way to an Indy board. See what they say.

I'm not always negative. Your option 1 was one of my options as well.
User avatar
Sky
Clublakers Analyst
 
Posts: 6292
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:22 pm
Location: up

Postby Venti Quattro on Sun May 06, 2007 9:06 pm

With all this offseason talk, I was wondering...is ClubLakers doing the GM Challenge again this offseason? Thanks.
March 21, 1999:

Los Angeles Lakers 115, Orlando Magic 104 FINAL/Overtime

Kobe Bryant - 38 Points, 4 Assists, 3 Rebounds, 2 Steals, 1 NEW FAN
User avatar
Venti Quattro

 
Posts: 2815
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:27 pm
Location: Burke, VA

Postby wolfpaclaker on Sun May 06, 2007 9:15 pm

Phil is wierd though, Sky.

On one hand he's pleading for more help, on the other hand he's talking about how they will monitor Bynum all summer and that Drew could be a 12-14 ppg guy next season. On Lamar he said that game 5 showed them how great he is and how valuable he is to them. Mitch said Lamar needs to look at game 5 and find a fine line between the 15-16 ppg he averages during the season and that performance. They basically told him start scoring more next season.

Then you have their comments on Kwame. Big dissapointments.

My guess is that the trade bait is Kwame + #19 + non-Kobe/Lamar/Drew/Luke Lakers for the best they can get.

If Cook's not in the Kwame deal, then they trade him for an athletic SF.

I still think they are that stage right now where their arrogance has them believing they will find something good for their crap.

Then again, I could be way off and they are just blatantly lieing to the media.
wolfpaclaker

 
Posts: 1766
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 12:52 pm

Next

Return to Lakers Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], tigerjeterkobe and 17 guests

cron
Advertise Here | Privacy Policy | ©2008 Sculu Sports. Come Strong.