Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby emplay on Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:25 pm

Hey all,

Here's my take on the Lakers for print - will be in tomorrow's Los Angeles Times

Lakers limited by luxury taxes

I go over the Lakers’ situation without assuming the reader is a die-hard, cap-savvy internet nut (like the rest of us)
http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketbal ... 1636.story

Also,

The NBA’s Six Most Underrated Guards
http://www.hoopsworld.com/the-nbas-six- ... ted-guards

The Unequal NBA Schedule of 82 Games
http://www.hoopsworld.com/the-unequal-n ... f-82-games

Kobe Bryant says he 'shattered' Achilles recovery timetable
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 2422.story

Jeanie Buss doesn't think Phil Jackson is done coaching
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 3205.story

Jeanie Buss: Jerry Buss might have persuaded Howard to stay
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 6983.story

Lakers 2013-14 schedule features challenging start
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 5400.story

Lakers could enter December with losing record
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 5681.story

Lakers to be well represented on national television schedule
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 9245.story

Tickets for Lakers-Warriors games in China set to go on sale Thursday
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 6012.story

Phoenix Suns purchase 'beat.la' domain name
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 7237.story

Lakers, NBA schedule to be announced Tuesday afternoon
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 4069.story

Bob MacKinnon hired as D-Fenders head coach
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 4682.story

Lakers' week in review
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow ... 6539.story

Thanks,

Eric
Check me at at www.HOOPSWORLD.com and on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/EricPincus
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby lakersin4 on Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:38 am

Warning: extremely long reply due to unexpected downtime on the clock.

In 2014 the free-agent wish list could include: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, Danny Granger, Luol Deng and Marcin Gortat. Restricted free agents could be Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins and Greg Monroe.

If Bryant re-signs next summer for, say, $12 million for the 2014-15 season, the Lakers would have enough room to sign two more big-name players, enabling the team to stay under the luxury tax.
I don't think we should make the big names our # 1 priority.. With this cap room we have the chance to really build a complete team.. Of course if you can get Lebron, George, or Cousins you probably have to do it.. Melo I like but not as much as I'd like to go after a couple different pieces that I think fit better than Melo.

1 guy I haven't seen anyone mention testing free agency is Kawhi Leonard.. I know he has a team option, but I don't see them trying to make him play for $2,894,059.. He's the "Lebron Stopper".. He's already 1 of their most important players & his role should grow even more this season.. I think they're going to renounce his rights & offer him a multi-year extension before he reaches his potential & they have to give him the max. I think he's right there with Paul George at the top of the 2nd tier SF's..

If they rescind his rights to try to lock him in an extension we need to throw a huge contract at him.. He's worth an offer every bit as big as Minnesota tried to steal Batum with, or the Lin/Asik deals.. He's actually probably worth more than any of those deals as he seems like he's going to be a better player than any of them.. & we know the Spurs have refused to pay the tax before.. so if we're able to structure a contract in a way that it will put them at risk of being taxpayers, we might be able to steal him away. With the Spurs having TP, Manu, Splitter, Green & probably Duncan on the books for 14/15, we might be best to frontload an offer.. Give him max money in the first year of the contract if that's possible/what it takes to get them not to match, & have it drop to 8M a season for the remaining years. Like the Asik & Lin contracts but frontloaded.

Another RFA that I think is worth making a run at is Avery Bradley.. Solid young combo guard that already plays elite defense.. Boston is looking for franchise players to rebuild around, there's no way they'll pay a premium to keep role players around. He's worth more than his QO & if we make the right offer I think the Celts will let him walk to save their money for guys to build around.

Those 2 additions would be game changers because of the defensive impact.. We'd be adding arguably the best defender in the league at SF & a top 5 defensive PG/undersized SG. Our perimeter & transition defense would instantly become much better & the bigs would look much better as a result of less breakdowns in the schemes & rotations.

Of course we'll try to convince the max guys like Lebron/George/Melo/Cousins first, but ultimately setting our sights a bit lower might give us the best chance of building a dynasty. If we could get 1 of those big names & also pull off the Bradley & Leonard signings, I think Kobe & Pau would have to think long & hard about taking a bigger paycut than expected to win right away. If we miss out on the big names but lock in Leonard & Bradley, we maintain our ability to go after Love/LMA/Marc/Rondo & still have a shot at contending in 14/15, which should make us even more appealing to those guys.

Hopefully we look something like this:

2014/2015

Kobe
Leonard
Bradley
Pau
Young
Farmar
Johnson
Hill
Possibly Nash if he still has anything left, & Sacre/Kelly/Harris if any of them end up being rotation players.

That would look pretty good to me if I'm Kevin Love or LMA.. Not to mention all of the potential ringchasers.
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby Doc Brown on Fri Aug 09, 2013 5:39 am

What is the Kawhi Leonard business you are talking about? I don't see them making him play for 2.5 million? In what world does that make sense?

Let's go through this again.....

Kawhi Leonard...

2014/2015 - Team option for 2.9 million. Why would the Spurs decline his option. They have one of the best up and coming young players at a freaking steal. They aren't just going to decline that option, so they can pay him a significant increase in pay.

They have 38 million in guaranteed deals, 28 million if Duncan retires. They can match anything for him.

2015/2016- QO of 4 million with 8 million dollars in guaranteed deals. Lakers can do whatever they want to the contract, SAS is going to match and give him what he is worth this year.

Avery Bradley - You seem to like overpaying for players that shouldn't bother overpaying. Celtics have 43 million in cap room next season (when they release Bogans' filler deal from the trade), if they can't get a big FA, why wouldn't they resign their own?
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby LTLakerFan on Fri Aug 09, 2013 9:04 am

Eric....props again for having made it to the Times, and front page of sports section with this one no less.

:beer:

On another note, what is going on with TJ Simers?? Has been gone from page 2 for weeks now. He annoys me a lot and most at CL hate him, but once in awhile he can be worth reading for his brand of humor.

I hope he's not sick?
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby emplay on Sat Aug 10, 2013 12:26 am

thank LTLakerFan - appreciated!
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby emplay on Sat Aug 10, 2013 12:26 am

I don't like to "guarantee" but I can guarantee the Spurs will take Kawhi's option - as close to 100% as there is 99.999999999999999999999999999999%
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby lakersin4 on Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:45 am

emplay wrote:I don't like to "guarantee" but I can guarantee the Spurs will take Kawhi's option - as close to 100% as there is 99.999999999999999999999999999999%

You don't think they'll try to extend him before he gets there like the Wiz did with Wall? I think Leonard is their future franchise player & they'll rescind him to try to lock him in next season instead of letting him improve another season & then having to pay twice as much. If they pick up his team option next season & then allow him to become restricted the next, they're going to pay much more for him on the open market.

@Doc Brown the Celtics don't match because they're rebuilding, why would they tie up cap space in a lifetime role player?
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby Doc Brown on Sat Aug 10, 2013 9:48 am

lakersin4 wrote:@Doc Brown the Celtics don't match because they're rebuilding, why would they tie up cap space in a lifetime role player?


The Celtics are rebuilding....ok I can buy that. You know what rebuilding teams do? They dump players like Gerald Wallace, Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee with guaranteed deals for peanuts and draft picks. You can't just say, the Celtics are rebuilding, so they don't want Avery Bradley.

I can do the opposite of that. The Lakers want to nab superstars, why would we tie up cap space in Avery Bradley who is a lifetime role player?

If they did want to get rid of him, why wouldn't they trade him somewhere and get something for him. What do rebuilding teams wants? Draft picks. You don't think another team in the league would give up a 1st round pick for Bradley? He's a RFA, that gives the Celtics a lot of options and giving him up to the Lakers, of all teams, for nothing is probably not high on their list of moves they can make.
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby lakersin4 on Sat Aug 10, 2013 10:33 am

Doc Brown wrote:
lakersin4 wrote:@Doc Brown the Celtics don't match because they're rebuilding, why would they tie up cap space in a lifetime role player?


The Celtics are rebuilding....ok I can buy that. You know what rebuilding teams do? They dump players like Gerald Wallace, Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee with guaranteed deals for peanuts and draft picks. You can't just say, the Celtics are rebuilding, so they don't want Avery Bradley.


It would make no sense for them to pay big money for role players until they know exactly who their future stars or franchise players are going to be & what kind of roleplayers they need to fit. As of right now, it's Rondo's team. They also have Crawford & Brooks who will still be under contract if they aren't traded.. why would you overpay to keep Bradley when you have 2 SG's right around his level on much cheaper deals? They're probably going to try to spend everything they can on bigs.
I can do the opposite of that. The Lakers want to nab superstars, why would we tie up cap space in Avery Bradley who is a lifetime role player?
Because we already have 1 superstar in Kobe Bryant, & a good declining star in Pau. & Avery should be cheap enough that we'll still have enough space to sign Melo or Lebron or 1 of those guys if they jump ship.. Or a lesser player (monta level) semi-star on a 1 year deal then go for Love or LMA. Also my Kawhi Leonard pipe dream has a chance of happening in 2015 when he should decline his QO & become a RFA. We're fewer moves away from contending than Boston is, so we're a better destination for Bradley.

If they did want to get rid of him, why wouldn't they trade him somewhere and get something for him. What do rebuilding teams wants? Draft picks. You don't think another team in the league would give up a 1st round pick for Bradley? He's a RFA, that gives the Celtics a lot of options and giving him up to the Lakers, of all teams, for nothing is probably not high on their list of moves they can make.
Can't argue with this & I wouldn't be surprised if Rondo or Bradley is traded to make room in that backcourt.. But if they go into restricted free agency with him & we make our offer, it's too late.
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby lakersin4 on Sat Aug 10, 2013 1:42 pm

Looking over the history of players like Kawhi, you guys are right he's 99.9% going to play out the team option & not be available as a RFA until 2015. A more realistic 2014 RFA we might be able to grab if we miss out on a big name wing is Klay Thompson.. I'd much rather have Barnes but it remains to be seen if they can make room for Iggy/Klay/Barnes.. Barnes has a team option but Klay has a QO that he could refuse & become a RFA.. I think it's safe to assume he'd love to be a Laker, the question is how much would we need to offer for GS not to match? Would the fact that Klay wants to be a Laker & might make that known give us enough leverage to land him on a fair deal?
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby XXIV on Sun Aug 11, 2013 10:23 am

^ Getting Klay on a fair deal regardless if he wants to be a Laker won't happen. The Warriors would be dumb not to match it and the only way I see us getting him is by either over paying or a sign and trade.
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby therealdeal on Sun Aug 11, 2013 10:40 am

XXIV wrote:^ Getting Klay on a fair deal regardless if he wants to be a Laker won't happen. The Warriors would be dumb not to match it and the only way I see us getting him is by either over paying or a sign and trade.

Sign and trade would be the only way under this new CBA. That way Golden State would get something back for him because they won't be able to match a team who wants to pay him.

That won't be for years though.
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby lakersin4 on Sun Aug 11, 2013 1:33 pm

XXIV wrote:^ Getting Klay on a fair deal regardless if he wants to be a Laker won't happen. The Warriors would be dumb not to match it and the only way I see us getting him is by either over paying or a sign and trade.

Depends what you consider fair.. 16.6 PPG in his 2nd season, with almost half of his shots being from 3, where he shot 40%. Put up 1 less PPG in the playoffs & was slightly more efficient.. I think the drop can be mostly attributed to Harrison Barnes having that breakout playoff performance & increase in FGA & minutes.. He's not just a good shooter, I think he's good enough to be a 2A or 2B on a team that wins a chip & he's only 23.. He's worth more than Monta or Brandon Jennings.. Would GS match an offer starting around 10M for him? Because he's worth every bit of that. He could very well end up getting offered near the max if he has a great season. They have Iggy locked in & have to re-sign Harrison Barnes too.. GS has shown willingness to pay tax but said they will avoid the repeater tax.. I don't think they can afford to keep all of these guys, & Klay is the only 1 who can decline his QO & hit the market next summer.

If the planets don't align & the basketball gods don't give us Lebron or Paul George, I'd offer Klay anywhere from 10-12M, as much as it takes for GS not to match.. I'm more comfortable with that than Melo at 20M.. Then go after a big.. I think Cousins could make enough noise to force his way out of Sac but if not I think plan B should be finding a "star" looking to get paid for 1 season, like Dallas has been signing, a Mayo/Monta level guy.. I would literally take Mayo but I'll take any young athletic player we can get that can take the bulk of the minutes from Nash for a seaosn.. Then we go after Dirk.. Nash, Kobe, Klay, Pau, "star", has to look more appealing to Dirk than these junk teams Cuban has put together after striking out time after time on the big names. He's put it out there that he'll take a huge paycut to win, & he's put it out there that he'll leave Dallas if it's what's best for both of them.. I think he has too much pride to run to Miami.. But if we're able to assemble that type of team, maybe Kobe & Nash can talk him into it.
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby Rooscooter on Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:13 pm

:man10: :man10: How does the pipe that is signing Klay Thompson end up in a thread about Luxury Tax limitations....

This summer needs to speed up.....
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby lakersin4 on Sun Aug 11, 2013 7:47 pm

Rooscooter wrote::man10: :man10: How does the pipe that is signing Klay Thompson end up in a thread about Luxury Tax limitations....

This summer needs to speed up.....

It's a pretty safe bet he'll turn down his QO next summer & become a RFA.. I don't see how it's so pipe for the W's to possibly not match an offer for him if they like Iggy & Barnes more. They have a lot of money tied up in Lee/Curry/Iggy already & are going to have to pay big to keep Barnes. I don't think it's that far fetched that we could offer enough that they wouldn't match.
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby Doc Brown on Sun Aug 11, 2013 8:26 pm

Iggy and Lee will both be 33 at the end of their deals. Lee's deal will be an expiring when Thompson needs to get paid and off the books the following year when Barnes needs to get paid. Iggy's deal is an expiring the year Barnes needs to get paid.

They have a lot of money tied up in those 3 right now, when Barnes/Thompson need new deals, Lee/Iggy will be coming off the books. Why wouldn't the Warriors want to go forward with Curry/Thompson/Barnes in 2015 and 2016? Thompson has a team option next summer and QO in 2015-2016. Barnes has a team option for 2015-2016 and a QO in 2016-2017.

Do you just go through every roster, find the young guys that will be RFA and just make up reasons as to why their teams won't want them?
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby lakersin4 on Sun Aug 11, 2013 9:45 pm

Doc Brown wrote:Iggy and Lee will both be 33 at the end of their deals. Lee's deal will be an expiring when Thompson needs to get paid and off the books the following year when Barnes needs to get paid. Iggy's deal is an expiring the year Barnes needs to get paid.

They have a lot of money tied up in those 3 right now, when Barnes/Thompson need new deals, Lee/Iggy will be coming off the books. Why wouldn't the Warriors want to go forward with Curry/Thompson/Barnes in 2015 and 2016? Thompson has a team option next summer and QO in 2015-2016. Barnes has a team option for 2015-2016 and a QO in 2016-2017.

Do you just go through every roster, find the young guys that will be RFA and just make up reasons as to why their teams won't want them?

You really make these posts personal & I enjoy posting on CL less every time you quote my posts. Which is sad because you were always 1 of my favorite posters.. Even in this post, before that completely unnecessary last sentence, I learned something from reading your reply.. I was looking at hoopshype wrong & thought Klay's QO was in 2014 & Barnes' QO was in 2015 :bang: :bang: .. That negates my whole post as they'll be able to free up some space to avoid being repeaters if they don't have to pay Klay until 15 & Barnes in 16.

But seriously.. I'd appreciate if you'd stop quoting me altogether or click ignore user. I don't want to use the ignore user feature because like I said, I usually find your posts useful.
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Re: Lakers limited by luxury taxes

Postby Rooscooter on Mon Aug 12, 2013 7:26 am

lakersin4 wrote:
Rooscooter wrote::man10: :man10: How does the pipe that is signing Klay Thompson end up in a thread about Luxury Tax limitations....

This summer needs to speed up.....

It's a pretty safe bet he'll turn down his QO next summer & become a RFA.. I don't see how it's so pipe for the W's to possibly not match an offer for him if they like Iggy & Barnes more. They have a lot of money tied up in Lee/Curry/Iggy already & are going to have to pay big to keep Barnes. I don't think it's that far fetched that we could offer enough that they wouldn't match.


It's also pretty "safe" that GS re-signs him either directly before he becomes a RFA or matches any offer for him.

You seem to go through team rosters and then spin a yarn on how we will have a roster of great young studs next offseason in just about every one of these "off season" threads.... maybe if you could keep it to just one it wouldn't be so annoying.
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