LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby jlkr on Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:56 pm

The road has sucked hard for the Lakers this season. Going into this road trip, they were 2-2 on the road since the All-Star break. The wins have been coming at home. Which is why I had them losing @ATL and @IND but I would love to be proven wrong. I would be ecstatic if they took one of those two and ya might have to scrape me off the ceiling if they got both. That would be a strong statement to the league that the Lakers are actually capable of getting it done on the road.

My 44 forecast still holds unless they start winning on the road against playoff-bound opponents. To this point in the season, they have exactly 2 such wins (@GS and @BKN). That's it. Yes, shockingly low... So there's still a big something to prove there, they gotta get over that hump if they're getting to 46 or even 47 wins.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:46 pm

trodgers wrote:
JGC wrote:
trodgers wrote:On the road? We beat the Warriors, too.
At home, several good teams (OKC notably).


Really? You think Warriors was a quality win? I mean, that's not a team we expect to face in the postseason, and that isn't really a measuring stick team for us is it?

They're sixth seed in the West. On the road. We beat them. Yes, that's a quality win. Surely you're the one who owes an explanation of why it's not.

Is Golden State, a team many of us thought was so bad they would flounder and give up their playoff spot to a non-playoff team, truly a quality win?

Do you mean that you think that many people think LA will pass Golden State? If so, I think you're wrong that many people think that. If that's not what you mean, I have no idea what you mean.

This sounds like one of those where, GS is a tough road opponent when we want to use it as a quality win example, and a team falling apart when we want to be hopeful that they'll yield their spot to us. Which is it? Let's pick one guys and stick with it.

We beat them in December. That was a long time ago. There is absolutely no problem with thinking they were both good then and fading now. But let me ask again, who thinks we're going to pass Golden State?


GS is a 6th seed and only 3 games away from falling out of the playoff hunt. How is that a quality win? I mean, I guess maybe we have different definitions. By quality, I mean a road opponent victory we can hang our hats on as an example of why we should be optimistic heading in to a postseason (should we make it) where we absolutely have to win on the road. I don't know, if my best road win against the West is the 6th seed Warriors and it took OT to get there, that's still giving me concerns about playing in OKC or SAS. Now, had we won at one of those places at least once, I'd feel better.

Well, not everyone was picking GS to flounder behind us but some people were. Go check that Realistic Chances thread. It's 60+ pages long though.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Lakerjones on Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:52 pm

therealdeal wrote:
Lakerjones wrote:Again, I'm hoping we keep up 2 wins to every loss. That would mean 12-6 down the stretch. It's doable. Now coming up we have a very tough stretch with the three road games. Orlando should be a win, but with the surrounding hoopla of Dwight returning it could get emotional and we could possibly get derailed. Hopefully not. Atlanta is second night of a back to back which would normally be an almost automatic loss, but apparently they will also be coming into it as a back to back after slugging it out with the Heat. So maybe, just maybe we can squeak that win out in their house. Then Indy at home where they are difficult.

I fully expected us to go 1-2 on this trip. We'll see what happens. Luckily after this they have an easier stretch opponent-wise and they SHOULD make up some ground. If we can go 2-1 on this trip it'll be a big success in my book. Not the end of the world if we happen to lose, but I don't want our momentum to drop.

I'm with you. I think they can exceed that 12-6, but they need to get consistency. They need to have some games where they come out, do work, then get to rest the starters because we did what needed to be done. We're almost there. We controlled the game against Chicago. And while the Toronto and New Orleans games were kind of out of control, we showed that we can win games and we showed ourselves what it took to get the job done.

We need to bottle the good parts of the last 3 games and do that on a more consistent basis. That's why I think tonight is a good warm up test for the next two games.


I was really impressed with how we played tonight. Just handled it in a business-like manner. No shenanigans. Dwight rose to the occasion - kept his emotions basically in check and just played hard. Kobe is rubbing off on this guy.

This was much like the Bulls game - we took care of business. No drama. I like it.

But the best thing about the game was our bench. They were outstanding. And they kept the starters minutes down somewhat. Kobe didn't have to exert himself too much, nor did Nash. Blake did a hell of a job. So did Jamison and Meeks, too. Strong stuff. Let's go get that second W for this road trip.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Tue Mar 12, 2013 10:34 pm

If we only get 1 of the next 2 I'd prefer we lose to Atlanta and beat Indiana. They've got a 25-7 record at home so that would prove a lot if we go there and beat them.

We should have beat them in LA but Joey Crawford's BS block call killed our momentum.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby FabFourLakers on Tue Mar 12, 2013 10:41 pm

JoelMyersScrotalSack wrote:If we only get 1 of the next 2 I'd prefer we lose to Atlanta and beat Indiana. They've got a 25-7 record at home so that would prove a lot if we go there and beat them.

We should have beat them in LA but Joey Crawford's BS block call killed our momentum.



I agree. If we're going to win one of the two games left on this road trip, I would prefer beating Indiana. I don't see why we can't...we have been playing better as of late..it's not 2nd night of a b2b....would be one of the biggest road wins of the year. But more importantly, we need to keep pace here.

My projected wins for the Lakers stands at 45...and I actually have the Lakers losing these next 2 games IN those projections....so any win in the next 2 games pushes the projections to 46 or possibly 47 wins on the year.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:34 am

Beating a playoff team on the road is a quality win. That's it.

JGC, I just don't think that's what a quality win is. A quality start in baseball is 5+ IP with 3 or fewer ER. That's quality - not something to hang your hat on. And in general when we talk about things being quality we mean they're pretty good.

There are other terms that in my mind are closer to what you mean - a statement game, for instance.

But if this isn't SUFFICIENT (but not necessary) for a quality win, I'm not sure why not:
1. On the road
2. vs. Playoff team
3. vs. Team with better record
4. vs. Excellent home team (70% Wins at home for GS)
5. vs. Team with .500+ record

By that standard, thirteen or fourteen (if CHI counts; not a great home team) possible opponents could qualify as a Quality Win for LA. If Brooklyn counts and Golden State doesn't, what's the difference?

Golden State is better at home than Brooklyn.
GS would be in a virtual tie for 5th in the East
Brooklyn would be 6th seed in the West
Brooklyn's win% is .585 vs. .554 for GS
Brooklyn is 10-14 vs. the West
GS is 17-10 vs. the East
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:34 am

trodgers wrote:Beating a playoff team on the road is a quality win. That's it.

JGC, I just don't think that's what a quality win is. A quality start in baseball is 5+ IP with 3 or fewer ER. That's quality - not something to hang your hat on. And in general when we talk about things being quality we mean they're pretty good.

There are other terms that in my mind are closer to what you mean - a statement game, for instance.

But if this isn't SUFFICIENT (but not necessary) for a quality win, I'm not sure why not:
1. On the road
2. vs. Playoff team
3. vs. Team with better record
4. vs. Excellent home team (70% Wins at home for GS)
5. vs. Team with .500+ record

By that standard, thirteen or fourteen (if CHI counts; not a great home team) possible opponents could qualify as a Quality Win for LA. If Brooklyn counts and Golden State doesn't, what's the difference?

Golden State is better at home than Brooklyn.
GS would be in a virtual tie for 5th in the East
Brooklyn would be 6th seed in the West
Brooklyn's win% is .585 vs. .554 for GS
Brooklyn is 10-14 vs. the West
GS is 17-10 vs. the East


Ok, so it was a matter of a difference of definition on the word quality. I was thinking of it in terms of a team that could reasonably contend for the title. So to me the main teams that come to mind are Miami, San Antonio, OKC pretty much. Clippers I don't put as much stake in because it is our own building (though crushing them I would very much like to do). Memphis is on the fringe as is Indiana and the Knicks. A game where we can point to it and say, we've shown we can beat the best in their own gym.

If Miami's best road win for example, was against GS and that was it, I'd think there would be some real concerns about their chances for postseason success. But they've shown they can go in to an OKC and win. OKC has shown they can go in to the Clippers building and win (twice actually).

Basically, I'm talking about beating a team on the road that is so good, that we don't even need to break down why a victory against them might be considered a quality victory.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:37 am

^ That sounds fine...but like a (proper) subset of quality wins. Like, for instance, really quality wins. I think a win over GS is at least as impressive as a win over Brooklyn. That's one of the important pieces of what you said that I was responding to. Brooklyn isn't that good.

BTW, GS beat Brooklyn twice this year (at home and on the road) and they beat the Knicks on the road.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:57 am

trodgers wrote:^ That sounds fine...but like a (proper) subset of quality wins. Like, for instance, really quality wins. I think a win over GS is at least as impressive as a win over Brooklyn. That's one of the important pieces of what you said that I was responding to. Brooklyn isn't that good.

BTW, GS beat Brooklyn twice this year (at home and on the road) and they beat the Knicks on the road.


Maybe the subset can be called uber-quality wins or something. Haha. Whatever, I don't care what we call it. Point is, I want a road win I can get excited about going in to the postseason when we face a top seed in the first round. Winning at GS doesn't give me any additional assurance about having to win at least 1 game in OKC/SAS/etc so that's what I meant.

And yes, I know GS beat Brooklyn but that was before Brooklyn was any good and they fired their coach shortly after these games and that's when they seemed to improve. Plus, this year, Brooklyn is 23-12 and GS is 15-19 so maybe the Nets just seem like the better team to me. Do you think Brooklyn would probably beat the Warriors if they played now?
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Wed Mar 13, 2013 12:26 pm

I like uber-quality wins :man10:

I don't know about GS. They're streaky, and they can score in bunches.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Jellincon on Fri Mar 15, 2013 7:52 pm

Jellincon wrote:
Jellincon wrote:
Jellincon wrote:
Jellincon wrote:at least 1



7


8


9


10
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Weezy on Fri Mar 15, 2013 8:32 pm

So a quick look through the schedule and win/loss count, and we're 10-3 since this question was asked. That really good, that's way ahead of the pace of 14-16 wins I predicted, hope we can keep it up. Also, dang Showtime_Revival_05 you're almost spot on so far, 9 wins 4 losses was your prediction, and most games you got right, hopefully you continue to be right


Showtime.Revival.05 wrote:BOS - W
POR - L
@ DAL - W
@ DEN - L
MIN - W
ATL - W
@ OKC - L
@ NOH - W
TOR - W
CHI - W
@ ORL - W
@ ATL - W
@ IND - L
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby therealdeal on Sat Mar 16, 2013 9:01 am

Well I said we had to go 2-1 on the trip and we did, but in a fashion I wasn't expecting.

The important thing now: don't let up. Don't stop cruising just because we've beat a good team finally. Here's the schedules coming up:
Lakers-
Kings
@Suns
Wizards
@Warriors
@Wolves

Utah Jazz-
Grizzlies
Knicks
@Rockets
@Spurs
@Mavericks

Golden State-
@Rockets
@Hornets
@Spurs
Wizards
Lakers

Houston-
@Wizards
Bucks
@Magic
Mavericks
@Mavericks

I think our schedule is by far the easiest, so we've got to capitalize. Utah's is the hardest and I can see them losing another game or game and a half to us in five games. Not to mention, we're only 2 games behind Golden State right now. If they lose to Houston AND to us, we pass them up in the standings too. Hello 7th spot.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Finwë on Sat Mar 16, 2013 12:32 pm

^^ we could wound up with the 7th or 6th seed after that stretch, assuming some results go our way.

I can see us going 4-1 in our stretch, maybe even 5-0 if we win @ GS.
Utah will probably go 1-4, 2-3 at best.
GS I think could go 2-3 or 3-2 if they beat us.
Houston could go 3-2 or 4-1. If they go 3-2, and we go 5-0, we'd be 6th right?
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Sat Mar 16, 2013 12:38 pm

If there was a ever a time to put up a solid winning streak it's now. Hope we get one 7+ streak going to end the season
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby karacha on Sat Mar 16, 2013 12:54 pm

I think for us it's either #8 or #6. I wonder if we'll tank the last game against HOU (resting starters Pop-style) if it comes to us not being able to get #6 and facing this decision: SAS or OKC in the first round.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Lakerjones on Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:00 pm

Let's go get 10 more wins to close this out and see where we sit. I'm hoping of course for at least 8th seed, but maybe as high as 6 if we were to win all of our head to head games with GS/Houston. Lot to ask for. But let's try and get those 10 more wins out of the final 15. That should get us in.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby FabFourLakers on Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:04 pm

I now have us at 46 wins after an unexpected win @INDY. One thing to note during the Lakers 18-7 surge....they have not lost back to back games in this stretch. Losing 2 in a row became normal to us earlier in the year...so I'm glad this team is taking losses seriously and not letting it happen consecutively. Utah has a very tough stretch and to some extent, that loss to chicago at home for GS will really come back to bite them...they have a tough stretch as well....houston I think is gonna pull ahead to 6th seeed..they showed some grit when they came back from down 20+ to the Wolves....GS needs to get their ish together though...they're 7-13 since being 30-17.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby therealdeal on Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:37 pm

Finwë wrote:^^ we could wound up with the 7th or 6th seed after that stretch, assuming some results go our way.

I can see us going 4-1 in our stretch, maybe even 5-0 if we win @ GS.
Utah will probably go 1-4, 2-3 at best.
GS I think could go 2-3 or 3-2 if they beat us.
Houston could go 3-2 or 4-1. If they go 3-2, and we go 5-0, we'd be 6th right?

Well it'd depend on how GS does, but I'm not going to count on 5-0. We haven't a 5 game win streak yet this season, and that'd make it a 6 game streak.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby TheOp on Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:38 pm

TheOp wrote:
JGC wrote:
TheOp wrote:Were only losing 5 games in the 2nd half of the season. Bank on it.


That would mean we're going 26-1 from here on out, that is NOT happening whether you bank on it, bet on it, bump on it, bop on it, boop on it.


What I mean is post all star break. Not literal 2nd half. So 23-5 would be my official prediction. With our losses coming at

@DEN
@OKC
@IND
@GSW
@SAC


My predictions are on point so far. Except for this last road trip, I had us winning in ATL. But I still think we finish the last 28 at 23-5.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby FabFourLakers on Sat Mar 16, 2013 2:48 pm

TheOp wrote:
TheOp wrote:
JGC wrote:
TheOp wrote:Were only losing 5 games in the 2nd half of the season. Bank on it.


That would mean we're going 26-1 from here on out, that is NOT happening whether you bank on it, bet on it, bump on it, bop on it, boop on it.


What I mean is post all star break. Not literal 2nd half. So 23-5 would be my official prediction. With our losses coming at

@DEN
@OKC
@IND
@GSW
@SAC


My predictions are on point so far. Except for this last road trip, I had us winning in ATL. But I still think we finish the last 28 at 23-5.



I got them finishing 22-6...but you could easily be right my friend!!!! They will need to win all of their road games though next week...which is entirely possible but that GS game is gonna be a tough one and you know they're going to play their best game of the year cuz for some odd reason...warriors fans really hate the Lakers and they always get up to play against us!!!
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby The Rock on Sat Mar 16, 2013 3:16 pm

https://twitter.com/LakersReporter/status/312818535850184704
After a very poor start on the road, LAL have gone 8-6 in their last 14 away from Staples. They've won 10 of 11 (6 straight) at home.


We've been near perfect at home and won a couple more games on road than we did at home. Good recipe for success
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Jellincon on Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:30 pm

Jellincon wrote:at least 1



11
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby jlkr on Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:19 pm

Now we are slightly past the halfway point between the All-Star break and the end of the season, having played 15 games out of 28. Let's take a look at some of the predictions in this thread and see where we are.

Actual record: 11-4.

About what I expected except that I had IND as a loss and PHX as a win.

Some brave poster said 23-5 (48 wins) and another one said 22-6 (47 wins). These were always unrealistic with absolutely no margin for error. Well the Lakers are on the rise, yes, but they weren't good enough even with Kobe to get that many wins. From here, they'd have to go 12-1 or 11-2 in the remaining 13 games. Not happening, but I love your optimism.

MDA said he thought it would take 20-8 (45 wins) to get into the playoffs.

I had 19-9 (44 wins). Trodgers had 18-10 (43 wins).

So from here, would have to go 9-4 to get to MDA's 45 wins. Or 8-5 to get to my prediction. Or 7-6 for trodgers' prediction.

Remember there are *seven* playoff-bound opponents in those 13 games. On the bright side, 5 of them are at Staples. But they won't be easy games. Especially if it takes Kobe awhile. 7 man rotation will not get it done.

So I see no reason to change my prediction at this time. May 44 wins be enough.
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I took the one less traveled by,
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby FabFourLakers on Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:12 pm

jlkr wrote:Now we are slightly past the halfway point between the All-Star break and the end of the season, having played 15 games out of 28. Let's take a look at some of the predictions in this thread and see where we are.

Actual record: 11-4.

About what I expected except that I had IND as a loss and PHX as a win.

Some brave poster said 23-5 (48 wins) and another one said 22-6 (47 wins). These were always unrealistic with absolutely no margin for error. Well the Lakers are on the rise, yes, but they weren't good enough even with Kobe to get that many wins. From here, they'd have to go 12-1 or 11-2 in the remaining 13 games. Not happening, but I love your optimism.

MDA said he thought it would take 20-8 (45 wins) to get into the playoffs.

I had 19-9 (44 wins). Trodgers had 18-10 (43 wins).

So from here, would have to go 9-4 to get to MDA's 45 wins. Or 8-5 to get to my prediction. Or 7-6 for trodgers' prediction.

Remember there are *seven* playoff-bound opponents in those 13 games. On the bright side, 5 of them are at Staples. But they won't be easy games. Especially if it takes Kobe awhile. 7 man rotation will not get it done.

So I see no reason to change my prediction at this time. May 44 wins be enough.


Hmm i dunno how i came up with 22-6...i think those were adjusted due to an unexpected win at Indiana....but since we followed that up with a loss at PHX, a game I had us winning, my prediction goes back to 45 wins. I think 45 is still entirely possible given Kobe comes back on Friday and shows no signs of injury, and Pau is back for our 4 game road trip. We basically need to go 4-1 over the next 5 games, which will bring us to 40-34, and then we'll have 8 games left....5-3 is entirely possible, maybe 6-2, given that we have a bunch of home games. I dont see the Lakers going .500 in the month of april, or below .500 in APril...they've been a pretty good team since 17-25 (19-8 since that mark....), so i dunno call me crazy but they can still reach 46-47 wins, but I think most likely they'll finish at 45 wins....
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