LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Juronimo on Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:51 am

14.

Playoffs are a pipe dream at this point.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:12 pm

JoelMyersScrotalSack wrote:
JGC wrote:Folks, there's a difference between hope and think. For us to win as described above, we would have to win more road games over the final 28 than we have over the first 54.

We're .333 on the road, and somehow you believe we're going to go (.714) on the road?

I just don't understand how people can think that the most likely possible scenario is that a .333 road team through 50+ games, is going to go .714 on the road and a .600 home team over that same stretch is suddenly going to go .786

If you meant that's what you realistically hope, then ok I get that, but if that's what you believe is the scenario that has the greatest likelihood of occurring over any other, then I think you have the words confused.


in order to go 20-8:

12-2
8-6

That's unlikely, but not impossible (.860 at home, .571 on road). We just went 4-3 on our recent road trip which is a .571 win %.

Our most difficult games remaining are:

@ Denver
@ OKC
@ Indiana
@ Clippers
@ Portland

Every other game we have a decent shot of winning. We have a home game against SAS in our 2nd to last game but Pop usually mails it in at the end and plays all bench guys so that shouldn't be too bad. A lot of our home games are against average-mediocre teams so if we want to make the playoffs it will involve winning almost of those games.


Well, if 20-8 is unlikely, then 20 wins isn't the answer, right? The question wasn't what is feasible, the question is how many are they going to win?

To me that means analyzing how they've been playing, who they've been playing, seeing what's ahead and putting a stake in the ground on how many wins you think the most likely to occur.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:14 pm

Doc Brown wrote:
JGC wrote:Folks, there's a difference between hope and think. For us to win as described above, we would have to win more road games over the final 28 than we have over the first 54.

We're .333 on the road, and somehow you believe we're going to go (.714) on the road?

I just don't understand how people can think that the most likely possible scenario is that a .333 road team through 50+ games, is going to go .714 on the road and a .600 home team over that same stretch is suddenly going to go .786

If you meant that's what you realistically hope, then ok I get that, but if that's what you believe is the scenario that has the greatest likelihood of occurring over any other, then I think you have the words confused.


21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:


21 is what you believe is the number of games we are most likely to actually win?

It's funny because people will often say things like "Watch the Games" and then say stuff like this which any reasonable person couldn't possibly conclude is the most likely scenario.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Weezy on Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:18 pm

Honestly I feel like 14 to 16 as we are now, we're just a mediocre team. If we make moves to help that might change but I don't see it.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby SK8 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:23 pm

I will say what i think after Thursday deadline. :man13: :man12:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Doc Brown on Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:31 pm

JGC wrote:
Doc Brown wrote:
JGC wrote:Folks, there's a difference between hope and think. For us to win as described above, we would have to win more road games over the final 28 than we have over the first 54.

We're .333 on the road, and somehow you believe we're going to go (.714) on the road?

I just don't understand how people can think that the most likely possible scenario is that a .333 road team through 50+ games, is going to go .714 on the road and a .600 home team over that same stretch is suddenly going to go .786

If you meant that's what you realistically hope, then ok I get that, but if that's what you believe is the scenario that has the greatest likelihood of occurring over any other, then I think you have the words confused.


21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:


21 is what you believe is the number of games we are most likely to actually win?

It's funny because people will often say things like "Watch the Games" and then say stuff like this which any reasonable person couldn't possibly conclude is the most likely scenario.


21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby therealdeal on Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:33 pm

:man10: :man10:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:16 pm

I think 15-19. And 18 or 19 should be 8th seed.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby gcclaker on Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:34 pm

14 low...16 tops.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Chillbongo on Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:54 pm

I was thinking....

21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get in the playoffs??
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Doc Brown on Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:54 pm

Chillbongo wrote:I was thinking....

21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get in the playoffs??


:jam2:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:55 pm

Doc Brown wrote:21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:


A risk taker eh? I respect that. You'll either be hailed or laughed at.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby therealdeal on Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:11 pm

:man10: :man10:
Doc Brown wrote:
Chillbongo wrote:I was thinking....

21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get in the playoffs??


:jam2:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby noobiew on Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:17 pm

20-8 should be enough to get us into the playoffs. Let do it Lakers !
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:22 pm

mcten: Mike D'Antoni said he thinks the Lakers need to go 20-8 or better down the stretch to make the playoffs
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Weezy on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:34 pm

JoelMyersScrotalSack wrote:
mcten: Mike D'Antoni said he thinks the Lakers need to go 20-8 or better down the stretch to make the playoffs


No reason to believe we can't do that, other than every single things we've seen this season from this team as evidence against it. :man11:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby thisbjgz on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:09 pm

That statement alone by MDA is going to cost us the season, I would think one game at a time approach is a better motivator for the team. What's going to happen when the team drops 2-3 in a row or 3 out of every 5 games again? panic?
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby CaCHooKa Man on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:37 pm

realistically 13
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby ramsay13 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:38 pm

22-6 if the lakers win tomorrow :jam2:
18-10 if they lose tomorrow. :bang:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:40 pm

thisbjgz wrote:That statement alone by MDA is going to cost us the season, I would think one game at a time approach is a better motivator for the team. What's going to happen when the team drops 2-3 in a row or 3 out of every 5 games again? panic?


If they are the only human beings on the planet that have a vested interest in NBA basketball and have no clue as to approximately how many wins might be necessary to make it, I'd be absolutely stunned.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby lakersin4 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:16 pm

4 more than Houston.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Wed Feb 20, 2013 11:30 am

thisbjgz wrote:That statement alone by MDA is going to cost us the season, I would think one game at a time approach is a better motivator for the team. What's going to happen when the team drops 2-3 in a row or 3 out of every 5 games again? panic?


He elaborated more on that and basically said that when you look at the standings it won't be possible to make the playoffs unless you're in the 44-45 win area. I don't know why people have such a hard time with hearing the truth, it's like people would rather hear delusion just to stay happy. When Nash said we probably won't win a ring this year people freaked out even though reality has been hitting us in the face for months now.

I mean if MDA said, "We gotta take it one game at a time" would that honestly make you feel better? It shouldn't. Words mean nothing in this business
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby pound4pound1 on Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:33 pm

even my inner homer says 12-14 games...this season sucks
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Forklift on Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:46 pm

We are only going to win 1... championship :jam2: :jam2: :lol:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby jlkr on Wed Feb 20, 2013 2:28 pm

JoelMyersScrotalSack wrote:
thisbjgz wrote:That statement alone by MDA is going to cost us the season, I would think one game at a time approach is a better motivator for the team. What's going to happen when the team drops 2-3 in a row or 3 out of every 5 games again? panic?


He elaborated more on that and basically said that when you look at the standings it won't be possible to make the playoffs unless you're in the 44-45 win area. I don't know why people have such a hard time with hearing the truth, it's like people would rather hear delusion just to stay happy. When Nash said we probably won't win a ring this year people freaked out even though reality has been hitting us in the face for months now.

I mean if MDA said, "We gotta take it one game at a time" would that honestly make you feel better? It shouldn't. Words mean nothing in this business

This.

Utah is playing well, they'll exceed that easily. Houston just needs to go 15-13 and they're at 44. Very doable.

GS does have a tough schedule to the end of the season, but 14 wins in 29 games left is still reasonable. That gets them to 44 as well.

So at least 44 wins it is. 45 would be better. If MDA has set a goal of 20 wins over the last 28 games, that is a good goal to shoot for. It's winning time. Or early vacation time. Dwight needs to choose.

BTW, Boston played last night at Denver. Really no excuse for the Lakers not to take them tonight.
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