LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Chillbongo on Wed Feb 20, 2013 2:41 pm

^I swear it was on a back to back that they demolished us a couple weeks ago. But yeah, Dwight needs to choose.

Another thing...that Clippers game was pathetic. It's on the players to start a game 0-15, but to come out in the 2nd half and allow another run? I really feel that falls on the coach.

Other issues aside, our team no backbone, nothing to fall back on. That's coaching!
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby davriver290 on Wed Feb 20, 2013 3:48 pm

Houston has a rough schedule down the road. Portland is in a complete free fall, as is Golden State. If we just win the winnable ones, maybe even win a couple against the top tier teams, we should be making the 8th or even 7th seed.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Wed Feb 20, 2013 4:00 pm

It honestly doesn't matter what other teams do at this point unless we do our part and win at least 44 games. If we go 19-9 and still don't make I would actually feel a little better knowing that our team had some pride and has the potential to work. If we continue to win 3, lose 2, win 2, lose 2, etc the rest of the way I will be very disappointed.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby pound4pound1 on Wed Feb 20, 2013 4:08 pm

JoelMyersScrotalSack wrote:It honestly doesn't matter what other teams do at this point unless we do our part and win at least 44 games. If we go 19-9 and still don't make I would actually feel a little better knowing that our team had some pride and has the potential to work. If we continue to win 3, lose 2, win 2, lose 2, etc the rest of the way I will be very disappointed.



at this point, this is all i want to see
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Lakerjones on Wed Feb 20, 2013 4:35 pm

pound4pound1 wrote:
JoelMyersScrotalSack wrote:It honestly doesn't matter what other teams do at this point unless we do our part and win at least 44 games. If we go 19-9 and still don't make I would actually feel a little better knowing that our team had some pride and has the potential to work. If we continue to win 3, lose 2, win 2, lose 2, etc the rest of the way I will be very disappointed.



at this point, this is all i want to see


Count me in with this, too. We need to keep on the path towards 2 wins out of every three games from here on. 19-9 and let the chips fall where they may. If we don't make it, we tried hard and to me there's some redemption there. If we go something like .500 the rest of the way I'll be upset.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Wed Feb 20, 2013 5:31 pm

^ Ok let's not pretend to be happy or OK with it if we're 19-8 going in to the final game with Houston and we lose only to let Houston take the 8th seed. We'd be livid!
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Lakerjones on Wed Feb 20, 2013 5:41 pm

JGC wrote:^ Ok let's not pretend to be happy or OK with it if we're 19-8 going in to the final game with Houston and we lose only to let Houston take the 8th seed. We'd be livid!


Well sure, if it comes down to that, of course yes!
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Wed Feb 20, 2013 6:25 pm

Just for some perspective...

- In our first 28 games, we had 14 wins.
- In our first 35 games, we had 15 wins.
- In our first 40 games, we had 17 wins.
- In our first 45 games, we had 20 wins.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Chillbongo on Wed Feb 20, 2013 7:02 pm

edit: misread
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Thu Feb 21, 2013 7:28 am

JGC wrote:Just for some perspective...

- In our first 28 games, we had 14 wins.
- In our first 35 games, we had 15 wins.
- In our first 40 games, we had 17 wins.
- In our first 45 games, we had 20 wins.

We've also won 9 of our last 13.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Doc Brown on Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:11 am

trodgers wrote:
JGC wrote:Just for some perspective...

- In our first 28 games, we had 14 wins.
- In our first 35 games, we had 15 wins.
- In our first 40 games, we had 17 wins.
- In our first 45 games, we had 20 wins.

We've also won 9 of our last 13.


21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Chopper on Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:36 am

Doc Brown wrote:21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:



and then go on to win the championship, meet Buss' goal of matching the Celtic's ring total, and then Disney will make a movie out of this season. :man9:

Do it!!!
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:47 am

trodgers wrote:
JGC wrote:Just for some perspective...

- In our first 28 games, we had 14 wins.
- In our first 35 games, we had 15 wins.
- In our first 40 games, we had 17 wins.
- In our first 45 games, we had 20 wins.

We've also won 9 of our last 13.


And 3 of our last 6.

Winning 9 of 13 still isn't good enough to get to that 20 game mark over the final 28. Not saying it is impossible to get there, just trying to provide some context for the few that think the 20 game mark is where we will most likely land. It's certainly possible, just, given how we've played this season, unlikely so we're really going to need some help from the teams above us in the standings.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:42 pm

^ And our last 1.

I don't think we need 20. 18 should do it.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby jlkr on Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:26 pm

Lakers need at least 19 from here. I think MDA was right about needing to go 20-8 from All-Star break to the end of the season.

HOU keeps playing like that, they may not get caught. Harden is on fire now.
UTA is definitely not getting caught. They chose to stand pat at the trade deadline and are looking good.

GS is the one that has to fall. They go 14-14, Lakers have to go 19-8 and sweep the remaining H2H games to beat them out.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby gcclaker on Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:58 pm

Play hard, take care of business and let the chips fall where they may.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:08 pm

trodgers wrote:^ And our last 1.

I don't think we need 20. 18 should do it.


18? That would put us at 43 wins. There hasn't been a team that could make the playoffs with only 43 wins in 7 years.

18 COULD do it, but so could 10. But I don't see how 18 SHOULD do it.

That would mean GS only needs to go 12-16, Utah 12-15, and Houston 14-13 from here on out to keep us out. If we only win 18 games then those teams just need to play .500 ball from here on out to keep us out. Sorry but this team needs to aim for 20+ and they'll still need help.

I should add... it's not just the number of wins that matters. It's WHICH wins. We have two games against Houston left. It will be more important to win those than probably any other team because a win there is a loss for HOU.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:21 pm

I've run the numbers. I'm happy with them.


trodgers wrote:Last ten years, 8 seed was 50 twice, 48, 46, 45, 44 three times, 43, and 42.
Average 45.4. First team out was 48, 46, 44, 43 twice, 42 twice, 41, 40, and 39. Average 42.8.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:22 pm

43 has happened. And I've run the projected wins for every WC team. 43 is the number I'm seeing.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:38 pm

ANd Trodgers knows his numbers. I would bet on that money.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:53 am

I'll keep updating them, puffy. If I had to place money, I'd go with 44 just to be sure. :man1:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:32 am

puffyusaf#2 wrote:ANd Trodgers knows his numbers. I would bet on that money.


How much would you bet that 43 isn't enough?

I will say, 43 is the PERFECT over/under. I can totally see this team playing very well over the final stretch and getting 43 wins, but I personally do not think it will be enough barring a season-ending injury to Harden which the projections don't take in to account.

Trodgers, which team does your projections say will miss the playoffs thereby allowing us in?
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby lakerfan2 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:35 am

1 down. 27 to go. The road is tough, but we're going to pull an LA Kings this year.

Believe! :jam2:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby S.R.05 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:44 am

i'm thinking we'll win about 20 more games including the last day against houston to get into the playoffs, which may or may not be convincing

spoiler alert: it's totally gonna be convincing
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:56 am

JGC wrote:
puffyusaf#2 wrote:ANd Trodgers knows his numbers. I would bet on that money.


How much would you bet that 43 isn't enough?

I will say, 43 is the PERFECT over/under. I can totally see this team playing very well over the final stretch and getting 43 wins, but I personally do not think it will be enough barring a season-ending injury to Harden which the projections don't take in to account.

Trodgers, which team does your projections say will miss the playoffs thereby allowing us in?


My projections are here (updated somewhat regularly):
http://www.clublakers.com/lakers-blogs/projected-wins-updated-t136925.html#p3817821

To answer your question...I have us at 40 wins and no playoffs. :man10: If we win 43, Houston doesn't make it. These projections are dynamic though; they are constantly updating...and hopefully trending toward being more and more accurate.
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