LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:27 am

trodgers wrote:
JGC wrote:
puffyusaf#2 wrote:ANd Trodgers knows his numbers. I would bet on that money.


How much would you bet that 43 isn't enough?

I will say, 43 is the PERFECT over/under. I can totally see this team playing very well over the final stretch and getting 43 wins, but I personally do not think it will be enough barring a season-ending injury to Harden which the projections don't take in to account.

Trodgers, which team does your projections say will miss the playoffs thereby allowing us in?


My projections are here (updated somewhat regularly):
http://www.clublakers.com/lakers-blogs/projected-wins-updated-t136925.html#p3817821

To answer your question...I have us at 40 wins and no playoffs. :man10: If we win 43, Houston doesn't make it. These projections are dynamic though; they are constantly updating...and hopefully trending toward being more and more accurate.


Does this mean they're 100% accurate after 82 games? I know it sounds like a dumb question, but the answer all depends on how the projections work.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:28 am

JGC wrote:
puffyusaf#2 wrote:ANd Trodgers knows his numbers. I would bet on that money.


How much would you bet that 43 isn't enough?

I will say, 43 is the PERFECT over/under. I can totally see this team playing very well over the final stretch and getting 43 wins, but I personally do not think it will be enough barring a season-ending injury to Harden which the projections don't take in to account.

Trodgers, which team does your projections say will miss the playoffs thereby allowing us in?


Well I suppose sooner or later I'd have to respond to you.

It doesn't matter how much I'd bet. What matters is I, personally, trust the numbers Trodgers comes up with more often than not. You have an idea of what it will take. Good for you. It is all calculated guess work. Why do you get to say 43 is the PERFECT over/under. Why isn't 44 it? 45? How about 42? I would like to see 45 from us at least. As for Houston, they have a tough schedule and Harden is playing great but the whole team is streaky. It isn't a far stretch to see them finishing with less than 45 wins. It is all speculation but the key is LA winning the games to get over that 43, 44, 45 point.
For what it's worth, the Lakers also clinched the Pacific Division, an achievement Bryant dismissed by saying "We don't hang divisions." No, only the big NBA championship banners are considered wall-worthy for the Lakers.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:04 pm

GSW plays San Antonio tonight but of course our luck that's the 2nd of a back to back for SAS and it's on the road. Otherwise this would be an easy win for the Spurs
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:07 pm

puffyusaf#2 wrote:
JGC wrote:
puffyusaf#2 wrote:ANd Trodgers knows his numbers. I would bet on that money.


How much would you bet that 43 isn't enough?

I will say, 43 is the PERFECT over/under. I can totally see this team playing very well over the final stretch and getting 43 wins, but I personally do not think it will be enough barring a season-ending injury to Harden which the projections don't take in to account.

Trodgers, which team does your projections say will miss the playoffs thereby allowing us in?


Well I suppose sooner or later I'd have to respond to you.

It doesn't matter how much I'd bet. What matters is I, personally, trust the numbers Trodgers comes up with more often than not. You have an idea of what it will take. Good for you. It is all calculated guess work. Why do you get to say 43 is the PERFECT over/under. Why isn't 44 it? 45? How about 42? I would like to see 45 from us at least. As for Houston, they have a tough schedule and Harden is playing great but the whole team is streaky. It isn't a far stretch to see them finishing with less than 45 wins. It is all speculation but the key is LA winning the games to get over that 43, 44, 45 point.


I too would like to see at least 45 wins but if you really believe in those numbers, then you should believe we can get to 43 and then rest the starters, right?
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby TheOp on Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:46 pm

Were only losing 5 games in the 2nd half of the season. Bank on it.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:30 pm

TheOp wrote:Were only losing 5 games in the 2nd half of the season. Bank on it.


That would mean we're going 26-1 from here on out, that is NOT happening whether you bank on it, bet on it, bump on it, bop on it, boop on it.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Chillbongo on Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:34 pm

Teams have gone on 20+ winning streaks all the time, it could definitely happen.

Now whether I think it will happen is a completely different story.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Jellincon on Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:06 pm

at least 1
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:31 pm

JGC wrote:
puffyusaf#2 wrote:
JGC wrote:
puffyusaf#2 wrote:ANd Trodgers knows his numbers. I would bet on that money.


How much would you bet that 43 isn't enough?

I will say, 43 is the PERFECT over/under. I can totally see this team playing very well over the final stretch and getting 43 wins, but I personally do not think it will be enough barring a season-ending injury to Harden which the projections don't take in to account.

Trodgers, which team does your projections say will miss the playoffs thereby allowing us in?


Well I suppose sooner or later I'd have to respond to you.

It doesn't matter how much I'd bet. What matters is I, personally, trust the numbers Trodgers comes up with more often than not. You have an idea of what it will take. Good for you. It is all calculated guess work. Why do you get to say 43 is the PERFECT over/under. Why isn't 44 it? 45? How about 42? I would like to see 45 from us at least. As for Houston, they have a tough schedule and Harden is playing great but the whole team is streaky. It isn't a far stretch to see them finishing with less than 45 wins. It is all speculation but the key is LA winning the games to get over that 43, 44, 45 point.


I too would like to see at least 45 wins but if you really believe in those numbers, then you should believe we can get to 43 and then rest the starters, right?


where the hell did you pull that crap out from? I mean seriously who said anything about resting starters? Once again, you are saying stuff for the sake of being confrontational. I know you aren't stupid so the point of the act is beyond me. In any case if the Lakers have a playoff spot locked up and can't lose it then there is a chance to rest players for parts of a game. However, you already know this may go down to the last few games so resting is not likely.
For what it's worth, the Lakers also clinched the Pacific Division, an achievement Bryant dismissed by saying "We don't hang divisions." No, only the big NBA championship banners are considered wall-worthy for the Lakers.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby TheOp on Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:59 pm

JGC wrote:
TheOp wrote:Were only losing 5 games in the 2nd half of the season. Bank on it.


That would mean we're going 26-1 from here on out, that is NOT happening whether you bank on it, bet on it, bump on it, bop on it, boop on it.


What I mean is post all star break. Not literal 2nd half. So 23-5 would be my official prediction. With our losses coming at

@DEN
@OKC
@IND
@GSW
@SAC

Also remember didnt we win like 17 in a row post ASB last season? This team is better then it was last year.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:40 pm

TheOp wrote:
JGC wrote:
TheOp wrote:Were only losing 5 games in the 2nd half of the season. Bank on it.


That would mean we're going 26-1 from here on out, that is NOT happening whether you bank on it, bet on it, bump on it, bop on it, boop on it.


What I mean is post all star break. Not literal 2nd half. So 23-5 would be my official prediction. With our losses coming at

@DEN
@OKC
@IND
@GSW
@SAC

Also remember didnt we win like 17 in a row post ASB last season? This team is better then it was last year.


:man3: We could barely win like 5 in a row at best last season :man10:

If you're thinking about the 2011 season instead it was actually 17-1 and that team was much better than this team
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:44 pm

Btw speaking of the 2011 season, the Jazz that season started 15-5 and 27-13 and were 31-23 (same record as GSW right now)

They finished the season 39-43 and didn't make the playoffs. So a collapse from GSW is definitely possible
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:11 pm

puffyusaf#2 wrote:where the hell did you pull that crap out from? I mean seriously who said anything about resting starters? Once again, you are saying stuff for the sake of being confrontational. I know you aren't stupid so the point of the act is beyond me. In any case if the Lakers have a playoff spot locked up and can't lose it then there is a chance to rest players for parts of a game. However, you already know this may go down to the last few games so resting is not likely.


Trodgers said 43 games would be enough for us to get to the playoffs. I said I didn't think it would be enough and you said you would bet money on it. So you must be pretty confident that 43 games is enough right?

So I'm asking you, if we are sitting on 43 wins before the season is over and cannot mathematically advance to the 8th seed (but could mathematically still miss the playoffs), would you then rest the starters at that point?

If you wouldn't, then you wouldn't actually have too much faith in the 43 win mark. If you would rest them however, then that shows utmost confidence that the other teams will then falter and we'll get in, as predicted, with just 43 wins.

And please, let's refrain from the personal attacks shall we? I'm pretty sure saying "Well, I know you're not actually a complete and utter [insert personal insult here]..." doesn't then disqualify it as a personal attack. (Although I guess we could all start doing that if it is in fact, acceptable).

This topic isn't really worth getting personal over man.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Jellincon on Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:15 pm

Jellincon wrote:at least 1


2
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby therealdeal on Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:01 am

JGC wrote:
So I'm asking you, if we are sitting on 43 wins before the season is over and cannot mathematically advance to the 8th seed (but could mathematically still miss the playoffs), would you then rest the starters at that point?

If we cannot make the 8th seed then we have mathematically missed the playoffs since the top 8 teams go. Your hypothetical situation doesn't make sense.

If there was a situation where we had 43 wins, one game left, and we had to win AND another team had to lose for us to make the playoffs...

then of course the starters play.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Chillbongo on Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:10 am

JoelMyersScrotalSack wrote:If you're thinking about the 2011 season instead it was actually 17-1 and that team was much better than this team

better [because] we had Phil :man6:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:43 am

therealdeal wrote:
JGC wrote:
So I'm asking you, if we are sitting on 43 wins before the season is over and cannot mathematically advance to the 8th seed (but could mathematically still miss the playoffs), would you then rest the starters at that point?

If we cannot make the 8th seed then we have mathematically missed the playoffs since the top 8 teams go. Your hypothetical situation doesn't make sense.

If there was a situation where we had 43 wins, one game left, and we had to win AND another team had to lose for us to make the playoffs...

then of course the starters play.


I meant 7th seed.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby borri on Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:54 am

Starting to look like we'll need 48 wins to get in the way teams above us are going.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Sat Feb 23, 2013 6:02 am

JGC, no one should be 100% convinced about any projection. So if you can't advance to 7th, but it's possible that a team wins, you lose, and you miss out on the 8th seed, of course you don't rest your starters. Seriously, that was a strange question.

BTW, the projections are NOT 100% accurate at game 82. If a team went on a long winning or losing streak to close the season, they might be off by a game (I've never seen more than a game off in the projections).
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby therealdeal on Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:32 am

JGC wrote:
therealdeal wrote:
JGC wrote:
So I'm asking you, if we are sitting on 43 wins before the season is over and cannot mathematically advance to the 8th seed (but could mathematically still miss the playoffs), would you then rest the starters at that point?

If we cannot make the 8th seed then we have mathematically missed the playoffs since the top 8 teams go. Your hypothetical situation doesn't make sense.

If there was a situation where we had 43 wins, one game left, and we had to win AND another team had to lose for us to make the playoffs...

then of course the starters play.


I meant 7th seed.

Why would you NOT play the starters in that situation? It's the same thing as what I just proposed. If you could MISS the playoffs by not winning a game then why would you seemingly give up after all the work you put in to get there?

Just to prove that the number 43 would be enough to make the playoffs? That's one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Jellincon on Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:32 pm

Jellincon wrote:
Jellincon wrote:at least 1


2



3
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby karacha on Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:34 pm

We're playing .700 ball lately. Not bad.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:37 pm

karacha wrote:We're playing .700 ball lately. Not bad.


We've won 11 of our last 15 games (.733) with 8 of those being road games. We also have not had a 2 game losing streak since the team meeting in Memphis way back on January 23rd.

I remember people were saying we had to play .670-700 ball in order to make the playoffs, so far we've done better than that.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby karacha on Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:39 pm

I think we can make it, really. Kobe/Nash/Dwight/Jamison seem to be on the same page and good things happen. I think if the season started now, we'd be a 3rd-4th seed easily. Oh well.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:29 pm

Coming out and fighting tomorrow will be major for us. We beat Denver at home with their rebounders and HC advantage that will send a loud message to the NBA. It may be our first 4 game winning streak of the season (I think)
For what it's worth, the Lakers also clinched the Pacific Division, an achievement Bryant dismissed by saying "We don't hang divisions." No, only the big NBA championship banners are considered wall-worthy for the Lakers.
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