LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby trodgers on Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:48 am

Lakers have 28 games remaining on their schedule. How many are they going to win?
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Doc Brown on Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:59 am

21 and will pass Houston on the last day of season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:01 am

Not enough. I would guess about 16-18. Take the average I guess so 17.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:08 am

Winning 20 of 28 would have us at a pace we haven't won at at any time over a 10 game span this season so I'm not convinced we are going to do it let alone over a 30 game span.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby S.R.05 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:12 am

Doc Brown wrote:21 and will pass Houston on the last day of season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:


this.

BOS - W
POR - L
@ DAL - W
@ DEN - L
MIN - W
ATL - W
@ OKC - L
@ NOH - W
TOR - W
CHI - W
@ ORL - W
@ ATL - W
@ IND - L
SAC - W
@ PHX - W
WAS - W
@ GSW - L
@ MIN - W
@ MIL - W
@ SAC - W
DAL - W
MEM - L
@ LAC - W
NOH - W
@ POR - W
GSW - W
SAS - L
HOU - W
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JGC on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:26 am

Folks, there's a difference between hope and think. For us to win as described above, we would have to win more road games over the final 28 than we have over the first 54.

We're .333 on the road, and somehow you believe we're going to go (.714) on the road?

I just don't understand how people can think that the most likely possible scenario is that a .333 road team through 50+ games, is going to go .714 on the road and a .600 home team over that same stretch is suddenly going to go .786

If you meant that's what you realistically hope, then ok I get that, but if that's what you believe is the scenario that has the greatest likelihood of occurring over any other, then I think you have the words confused.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby The Rock on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:36 am

Hopefully we'll go 21-7
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Lakerjones on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:44 am

We might be ok with 19 and 9. That's in keeping with winning 2 out of every 3.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Doc Brown on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:48 am

JGC wrote:Folks, there's a difference between hope and think. For us to win as described above, we would have to win more road games over the final 28 than we have over the first 54.

We're .333 on the road, and somehow you believe we're going to go (.714) on the road?

I just don't understand how people can think that the most likely possible scenario is that a .333 road team through 50+ games, is going to go .714 on the road and a .600 home team over that same stretch is suddenly going to go .786

If you meant that's what you realistically hope, then ok I get that, but if that's what you believe is the scenario that has the greatest likelihood of occurring over any other, then I think you have the words confused.


21 and will pass Houston on the last day of the season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby dwighthowardsdad on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:50 am

16.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Rooscooter on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:52 am

Based on what we've seen.... I'd say about 14 to 18. At no point have we shown any consistency whatsoever and there is no reason for it to start late in a season where our best players are both injured and over played.

I could see a drop off actually due to fatigue in our older players who are logging way to many minutes.

I'd love 20+ wins but that seems highly unlikely unless we somehow shake things up with a trade and bring in someone who can provide a new dimension.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby karacha on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:56 am

Around 17-18. Which would be good if we played like that from the start.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby therealdeal on Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:58 am

We need to win something like 5 out of every 7 games I think.

So that'd mean 20 games or so.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby The Rock on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:04 am

We've won 8 of our last 12 games played. We just gotta keep up that pace rest of the way
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby khmrP on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:06 am

Showtime.Revival.05 wrote:
Doc Brown wrote:21 and will pass Houston on the last day of season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:


this.

BOS - W
POR - L
@ DAL - W
@ DEN - L
MIN - W
ATL - W
@ OKC - L
@ NOH - W
TOR - W
CHI - W
@ ORL - W
@ ATL - W
@ IND - L
SAC - W
@ PHX - W
WAS - W
@ GSW - L
@ MIN - W
@ MIL - W
@ SAC - W
DAL - W
MEM - L
@ LAC - W
NOH - W
@ POR - W
GSW - W
SAS - L
HOU - W


how can you have us losing to Por at home but beat them on the road?
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby quartzcharm on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:10 am

18, but I don't think it's good enough to make the playoffs.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby scheven on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:11 am

The key is how we respond to road games. We win our road games against crappy teams and protect our homecourt against mediocre teams and we'll make the playoffs
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby S.R.05 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:13 am

khmrP wrote:
Showtime.Revival.05 wrote:
Doc Brown wrote:21 and will pass Houston on the last day of season with a convincing win to get into the playoffs. :jam2:


this.

BOS - W
POR - L
@ DAL - W
@ DEN - L
MIN - W
ATL - W
@ OKC - L
@ NOH - W
TOR - W
CHI - W
@ ORL - W
@ ATL - W
@ IND - L
SAC - W
@ PHX - W
WAS - W
@ GSW - L
@ MIN - W
@ MIL - W
@ SAC - W
DAL - W
MEM - L
@ LAC - W
NOH - W
@ POR - W
GSW - W
SAS - L
HOU - W


how can you have us losing to Por at home but beat them on the road?


dunno. felt like it.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby khmrP on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:18 am

^^^well considering this team isn't very good on the road and have always had problems in Por, I would think the reverse would be more applicable.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby S.R.05 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:23 am

meh. i like it the other way better. hypothetically, if my picks were all correct, going into that away game we'll have some momentum from beating the clippers & hornets. since we'll probably need a late push to make the playoffs there'll be more energy/will to win.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby JoelMyersScrotalSack on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:40 am

JGC wrote:Folks, there's a difference between hope and think. For us to win as described above, we would have to win more road games over the final 28 than we have over the first 54.

We're .333 on the road, and somehow you believe we're going to go (.714) on the road?

I just don't understand how people can think that the most likely possible scenario is that a .333 road team through 50+ games, is going to go .714 on the road and a .600 home team over that same stretch is suddenly going to go .786

If you meant that's what you realistically hope, then ok I get that, but if that's what you believe is the scenario that has the greatest likelihood of occurring over any other, then I think you have the words confused.


in order to go 20-8:

12-2
8-6

That's unlikely, but not impossible (.860 at home, .571 on road). We just went 4-3 on our recent road trip which is a .571 win %.

Our most difficult games remaining are:

@ Denver
@ OKC
@ Indiana
@ Clippers
@ Portland

Every other game we have a decent shot of winning. We have a home game against SAS in our 2nd to last game but Pop usually mails it in at the end and plays all bench guys so that shouldn't be too bad. A lot of our home games are against average-mediocre teams so if we want to make the playoffs it will involve winning almost of those games.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby abeer3 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:11 am

i think i looked at this last week, and i had 19 wins as an optimistic estimate. as jgc has indicated, even this involves believing a somewhat different team will show up after the break. if the same team we've seen shows up, you'd have to guess under .500, right?

my expectation is that when it's all over, the lakers will break even on the season and miss the playoffs by three games.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby lakerfan2 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:18 am

BOS - W
POR - W
@ DAL - W
@ DEN - L
MIN - W
ATL - W
@ OKC - L
@ NOH - W
TOR - W
CHI - W
@ ORL - W
@ ATL - W
@ IND - L
SAC - W
@ PHX - W
WAS - W
@ GSW - L
@ MIN - W
@ MIL - W
@ SAC - W
DAL - W
MEM - W
@ LAC - L
NOH - W
@ POR - L
GSW - W
SAS - W
HOU - W

These are the games we SHOULD win and LOSE.

How these games play out based on this season is beyond me, but WE SHOULD do this. 22-6. It's asking a lot, but if we can roll into the playoffs hot. Look out.

Do it for Jerry guys. Come on.
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby Chopper on Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:25 am

over the last few years, the Lakers have shown they can come out hot after the ASG break. I'm hoping they do the same and spin off 7-8 wins in a row.

If they can do that, they should be in great shape to challenge for a PO bearth. Just one decent win streak. No need to project themselves out all the way to 28 games. Just focus on what's in front of them please!
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Re: LQOTD: how many of remaining 28 are Wins?

Postby jlkr on Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:48 am

19 wins should get them within consideration of the 8th spot. Remember they play 12 of 18 on the road starting this Sunday and going to the end of March. Have to go 2-0 against Boston and Portland, then at least 11-7 in that 18 game stretch, then 6-2 in April when they play only one game away from Staples.

People argue lots of easier opponents during that 18 game span, but it's a stretch to think the team can maintain its consistency that well. I can very easily see a few more bad losses during this stretch. 4th quarter defensive collapses, that sort of thing.
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