LQOTD: Which team do we catch?

Houston and Utah are sitting ahead of us right now. I'm simply asking which one we're more likely to catch. Houston is a bit behind Utah, but Houston added Aaron Brooks. Thoughts?

I'm thinking Utah, I think Houston will win a few more games, James Harden has been playing his tail off, and they can score a lot of points pretty fast.

^^ I'm with you jazzygirl. I think it's Utah, too, if (and hopefully when) we do. They have the toughest schedule between the three of our teams. And I think they are the worst road team of the three.

We catch Utah, Houston, and GSW. 2 more games to play with GSW and we close at Staples with Hou.

Battle for LA! 3 Clippers vs 6 Lakers.

Lakers_323 wrote:We catch Utah, Houston, and GSW. 2 more games to play with GSW and we close at Staples with Hou.

Battle for LA! 3 Clippers vs 6 Lakers.

Ouch.

I want to be in the same bracket at the Spurs and I think they might slip to the 3rdth seed, I think we can overtake Golden State, Utah and Houston to get to the 6th seed

On a side note I hope Clippers take the 1st seed so we can avoid them as late as possible

I'm actually starting to think we might catch the Warriors...simply because we play them 2 more times and they also play Utah one more time and Houston twice. If it ain't Utah, it'll be GS...but all 3 teams are on shaky ground right now....they're finally playing under some type of pressure....now we're seeing just how good are these teams ahead of us...and i never believed they were truly better.

I think we catch Houston & GS. Hopefully the Spurs only fall to 2. We need that 1st round matchup.

Just some information that might help make you guys make a choice (assuming we do catch someone).

First things first, records:

Lakers 29-30
Rockets 32-28
Jazz 32-27
Warriors 33-27

Of course, Nuggets and up is not realistic.


The Lakers have one game left against the Rockets. If the Lakers win, they would tie their series 2-2. Lakers right now have a 17-20 Conference record while the Rockets are just 13-20 in Conference games. This means that if we win that game and end up tied in record, then the tie-breaker would be most likely ours (if we lose to them and end up tied, then the tie-breaker would go to them). That one game left against them is in the Staples Center.

We have no more games left against the Utah Jazz and they won ou head-to-head matchups 2-1, so they would have the tie-breaker against us in case we end up with the same record.

We have two games left against the Warriors. We're currently 2-0 against them, so with just one victory, we would have the tie-breaker against them. If they win both games, then the tie-breaker would most likely be theirs because, right now, they have an 18-18 Conference record against our 17-20. The two games left are one in Golden State and one in L.A.

We should also keep an eye on the games between them.

Warriors and Rockets still have to games to play between each other, one in Houston and one in Golden State. Houston won the previous two.

Warriors also have one game left against the Jazz. They're 1-1 right now (both played in Utah) and the last game will be in Golden State.

Finally, the Rockets and the Jazz also have one more game to play, which will be in Utah. Rockets are 2-1 against the Jazz right now.

Lakers remaining schedule:



Rockets remaining schedule:


Jazz remaining schedule:



Warriors remaining schedule:

We can only hope to catch Utah.

Houston and Golden State each play only 2 or 3 top teams the rest of the way. And they have very home-friendly schedules.

Utah's schedule is a little more difficult, but they have a very nice home stretch in the second half if they falter in the first half.

That said, we can't lose to Atlanta tomorrow. We absolutely can not or we're looking at 3 games below .500 after the OKC game this late in the season. Our season would practically be over.

Rockets
Road Games: 9
Back to Backs: 4
Games vs. Above .500 Teams: 9

Jazz
Road Games: 12
Back to Backs: 3
Games vs. Above .500 Teams: 12

Warriors
Road Games: 6
Back to Backs: 3
Games vs. Above .500 Teams: 9

Jazz certainly have the roughest stretch left. They have an Eastern Conference road trip right now and they still have the Texas 3 step to do. They have the most road games left and the most remaining games against good teams.

If we catch any of them it will most likely be the Jazz. Houston seems to be getting a little better and Lin is playing the best ball he's played all year right now so I think they will be at least as good as us.... maybe we gain a game or two.

Utah is the one most likely to fade down the stretch IMO.

It won't matter if we don't figure out a way to beat the good teams and win on the road. Even with our latest stretch both of those things are still issues for the most part.

Both.

We'll take #7.

My guess

6. Rockets
7. Lakers
8. Warriors

wcsoldier81 wrote:My guess

6. Rockets
7. Lakers
8. Warriors

I think this is possible. Even probable.

Damn. Jazz schedule is brutal. Thanks, JSM and Magic Skywalker for doing the dirty work.

Add in Mo Williams, Millsap, and Jefferson all dealing with injuries. I think the Jazz are the most likely to nosedive among those teams.

JSM wrote:Rockets
Road Games: 9
Back to Backs: 4
Games vs. Above .500 Teams: 9

Jazz
Road Games: 12
Back to Backs: 3
Games vs. Above .500 Teams: 12

Warriors
Road Games: 6
Back to Backs: 3
Games vs. Above .500 Teams: 9

Jazz certainly have the roughest stretch left. They have an Eastern Conference road trip right now and they still have the Texas 3 step to do. They have the most road games left and the most remaining games against good teams.

Lakers

Road Games: 12
Back to Backs: 4
Games vs. Above .500 Teams: 11

So our schedule isn't cake walk either. We really can't afford to drop hope games. We play in Portland, at Clippers, in OKC etc...these are automatic losses. We also traditionally drop a few against the likes of Kings, Suns or Pacers on the road and games like the Spurs or Grizzlies at home...

it certainly is interesting. Now with the Jazz, Warrios and Rockets...there is hope that at least one of them will stink it up completely. Warriors have been on a free fall recently and it certainly can't hurt it. But if we aren't going to gain ground by winning, we can now ALSO hope of gaining ground by another team just falling.

I don't know how the Warriors have been winning so many games. Lee/Curry/Thompson all had good to great games last night and they lost to a Philly team that is struggling right now. Jack is there X-factor right now with Bogut out, if he has a bad game like he did last night, they aren't going to be winning many ball games from here on out.

I have new projected win totals. Lakers still 9th, but it's the smallest margin since they fell to 9th.

Current through games on March 2nd.

San Antonio 62
Oklahoma City 59
LA Clippers 55
Memphis 54
Denver 51
Golden State 45
Utah 44
Houston 43
Lakers 42
Portland 37
Dallas 36
Minnesota 29
New Orleans 28
Phoenix 28
Sacramento 27
http://blog.travisjrodgers.com/2013/03/03/nba-western-conference-projected-wins.aspx

Doc Brown wrote:I don't know how the Warriors have been winning so many games. Lee/Curry/Thompson all had good to great games last night and they lost to a Philly team that is struggling right now. Jack is there X-factor right now with Bogut out, if he has a bad game like he did last night, they aren't going to be winning many ball games from here on out.

I don't know if the numbers will back up my words but it looks like Warriors are back to their usual bad standards in the defensive and rebounding categories from the games I've recently watched

Wow there's some really great analysis in here. Big props to Magic Skywalker and JSM and KB24 for some great info.

After reading all of that: I think Utah dips, but given the fact that we're at a disadvantage to them, I'm not sold that we catch them. I think Houston, if they stay healthy, holds us off. If we make it in I see us overtaking Golden State. If we only played that team and we beat them twice our record would be 31-30 and theirs would be 33-29. We'd be only two games behind them. Factor in their games against Houston and the fact that they've lost 10 out of their last 14 games and I think their downward trend will be enough to catch them.

My hope is that they drop far enough for us to pass them and maybe if we're lucky I see Utah dropping far enough for us to pass them as well. I see Houston edging us out by about half a game.

I still maintain that it's imperative we keep winning at a 2 out of every three game pace, no matter what the others do. That gives us 15 more wins, 8 losses. That would put us at 44 wins which I think is what we will need. It is not going to be easy. There are some very tough games in there and we have 4 more back to backs. We have to turn it up another notch and hope that one or two of these 3 start to fall.

based on their records and remaining schedules, i'd put houston at 46-47 wins, utah at 46, and gs's schedule is crazy easy. they could easily win their next 7, for starters.

my best guess:

6. gs (47+ wins)
7. houston (46-47 wins)
8. utah (45-46 wins)
9. la (43 wins is my bet, based on how they've played)

boo.

We will catch Utah for sure, theres no doubt in my mind about that. Even if we played pretty sub-par ball the rest of the way, which I highly doubt, Utah has a lot of losses on their schedule. Their simply not a good enough road team to hold their own in those tough games. At worst, that means we'll take the 8 seed.

However, I see us making it to 7th, passing Houston as well. The reason I think we catch Houston is because were only 1 game back of them technically, I think with the way we are playing we can play much better then them the rest of the way. And of course we have that last game at Staples, so all we have to do is be within a game of them going into that one. Golden State will likely stay where they are, they have a lot of home games left and I think are talented enough and well coached to keep their pace. Plus, Steph Curry is going crazy right now.

7th seed and hopefully a matchup with the Spurs or Clippers. We need to catch Houston and Utah, and we need OKC to overtake the Spurs for the 1 seed.