Position Analysis: Bigs

Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby trodgers on Fri May 10, 2013 8:56 am

POSITION SUMMARY: BIGS
Dwight Howard: 2722 minutes
Pau Gasol: 1655 minutes
Antawn Jamison: 1636 minutes
Earl Clark: 1363 minutes
Jordan Hill: 458 minutes
Robert Sacre: 203 minutes
-As expected, Howard and Gasol played the most minutes at the 4 and 5 spots. Unfortunately, injuries and experimentation saw Jamison play some time at the PF position, where he was exposed defensively. Clark filled the role that Hill, who went down with an injury, was expected to play, and Sacre saw pretty typical rookie minutes.

SCORING EFFICIENCY
Howard 6.1
Jamison 5.7
Hill 5.6
Gasol 5.5
Clark 5.0
Sacre 4.1
-Howard (excellent), Jamison, Hill, and Gasol all scored with at least good efficiency. By comparison, Bynum led LA bigs with 6.2 SCOFF last season, and Gasol was second at 5.8. This means LA got a bit less help in the scoring department. The big shift from last season to this season was from skill to hustle players playing the bulk of the minutes.

PASSING EFFICIENCY
Gasol 3.2
Clark 2.1
Howard 1.9
Jamison 1.7
Sacre 1.7
Hill 1.6
-Pau Gasol's PAFF is just amazing for a big, and it highlights a strength for LA bigs. Earl Clark (largely a SF) posted a solid number, too. Howard is right in line with Bynum's number from last season. The others aren't terrible, but no one would suppose that Jamison, Sacre, or Hill is a more than an adequate passer.

HUSTLE EFFICIENCY
Hill 4.1
Howard 3.7
Clark 3.1
Gasol 3.1
Jamison 2.9
Sacre 2.7
-Hill posted a ridiculous 4.5 HUFF last season, and he followed it up with another awesome mark. He's simply one of the best hustle players in the league. Howard slipped just slightly (from 3.8), but that number is still elite. Clark and Gasol's numbers are adequate. Jamison (undersized) and Sacre (inexperienced) have some deficits to cope with.

OFFENSIVE RATING (Composite of other three)
Howard 100
Hill 96
Gasol 90
Jamison 76
Clark 72
Sacre 50
-The good news here is that the Lakers have three players whose offensive talents make them worthy of a starting spot. Further good news is that Jamison and Clark are quality backups (at least offensively). Even Sacre is what he was billed as - the last big to suit up and see spot duty.

CONTRACT SITUATION
Dwight Howard is a Free Agent; he received $19.3M this season. Pau Gasol has one year remaining at $19.3M. Jordan Hill has another season at $3.5M. Clark, Jamison, and Sacre are all Free Agents.

FINAL ANALYSIS
The Bigs situation offers perhaps LA's most _comfortable_ flexibility. The team can go in several directions and still field a quality stable of bigs. Given that Jamison is better suited at SF and will probably not return, let's set him aside. Howard must be retained. Once that happens, the Lakers have the luxury of running Howard-Gasol-Hill-Clark-Sacre. If Gasol is moved in order to pursue a SF or PG, the Lakers can still field Hill or Clark at the 4 and Howard at the 5 with Sacre (and Hill doing double duty) backing up Dwight. It's a good, deep lineup.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby Lakerjones on Fri May 10, 2013 9:08 am

^^ Great breakdown T. :bow:

Yes, this is definitely our strength, which of course makes the D' Antoni hire (and continued job) a complete head scratcher.

Assuming Dwight stays, I think it's time to finally move Pau for a couple pieces - SF our most glaring hole, and a backup guard (PG, SG or combo). If we get anything else out of a Pau trade, too, great.

I'd be totally fine with Hill at starting PF and then re-signing Clark as backup. Keep Sacre as a backup big as well. If we could resign Jamison I'd love to see that as well.

Howard, Hill, Clark, Jamison, Sacre is plenty of front court, IMO. Time is now to move Pau. Let's get a starting SF.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby Finwë on Fri May 10, 2013 12:26 pm

Lakerjones wrote:^^ Great breakdown T. :bow:
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby Armani on Fri May 10, 2013 3:34 pm

Good breakdown.

Dwight had a decent offensive year....his main value comes from his defense, though. His 2nd half defense was awesome, enabling us go... 28-13 in the latter half. Everytime he went to the bench, our D went down the gutter. Hill hustles plenty, but he's nowhere near the impactful defender that Dwight is.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby karacha on Fri May 10, 2013 5:03 pm

Excellent breakdown T. Really enjoyed reading it. I can sum up my current impression in 2 words: Dwight. Defense.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby Rooscooter on Sat May 11, 2013 9:00 am

Great write up.... I question a statistic however that would place Pau in the top of any positive category with the word "Hustle" in it......

The comments on the scoring efficiency are somewhat telling about that stat as well to me. Your comment about the difference from "Skill to Hustle" is the part that makes sense for that statistic yet the results on the floor were significantly different. Hustle is supposed to be a good thing yet for us it seems that through this particular statistical analysis it wasn't. My guess is that it's the "Hustle" statistic again.... not sure that's a quantifiable quality in a player.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby trodgers on Sat May 11, 2013 10:12 am

I gave it a name, but I'm happy to say exactly what it is: offensive boards, blocks, steals are the good; turnovers and fouls are the bad. The stat is a Good Per Minute and a Good/(Good+Bad). Pau blocks shots, rebounds, and doesn't foul or turn it over much. In his case it is a skill issue. Hill is clearly all hustle though. Don't get caught up on the name :)
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby Rooscooter on Sat May 11, 2013 4:27 pm

trodgers wrote:I gave it a name, but I'm happy to say exactly what it is: offensive boards, blocks, steals are the good; turnovers and fouls are the bad. The stat is a Good Per Minute and a Good/(Good+Bad). Pau blocks shots, rebounds, and doesn't foul or turn it over much. In his case it is a skill issue. Hill is clearly all hustle though. Don't get caught up on the name :)


Well..... Now it makes a little more sense.... :man10: I thought someone was keeping track of 50-50 balls, running back on opponents fast breaks and other elevated EFFORT plays....

Not much of a fan of the blocked shot stat but the others are valuable. Low fouls and turnovers would seem to put him high in that calculation.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby trodgers on Sat May 11, 2013 4:39 pm

Roo, you raise a few interesting points.

Directly - the 50/50 stat would be very cool to chart. I'd like to see it!
Indirectly - some stats are difficult to evaluate. I think the Points Per Shot in itself is one of them. You mention Blocks as one you don't like. Presumably that's because unlike Steals, Blocks don't always result in the blocking of a shot that would have gone in, and they don't always give possession back to your team. So Blocks aren't obviously GOOD.

I'd like to see someone do a calculation of how these things typically go - what happens in most cases when there is a block. Which team retains possession, what % of the time does the team previously on offense get the board and score, etc.?

It reminds me of the Kobe Assist - the drive that doesn't fall but which is rebounded and quickly stuffed back in by your team. League wide there's a lowish % likelihood that your team retains possession on missed drives and immediately scores, but on Kobe's drives the numbers are very high.

Over the last two seasons, Kobe had more than 200 of these "assists" - and at one point this year, he had done the following:

107 shots within 7.5' of the basket
63 made by Kobe
44 missed
--52% of these rebounded by LA
--32% of the misses were put back for a score

So, "of 100 close-range Kobe shots, 59% immediately find the net and 14 more find the net within seconds of being rebounded by a Laker; 83% of Kobe's close range shot attempts become points for the Lakers within five seconds."
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby Rooscooter on Sat May 11, 2013 4:54 pm

trodgers wrote:Roo, you raise a few interesting points.

Directly - the 50/50 stat would be very cool to chart. I'd like to see it!
Indirectly - some stats are difficult to evaluate. I think the Points Per Shot in itself is one of them. You mention Blocks as one you don't like. Presumably that's because unlike Steals, Blocks don't always result in the blocking of a shot that would have gone in, and they don't always give possession back to your team. So Blocks aren't obviously GOOD.

I'd like to see someone do a calculation of how these things typically go - what happens in most cases when there is a block. Which team retains possession, what % of the time does the team previously on offense get the board and score, etc.?

It reminds me of the Kobe Assist - the drive that doesn't fall but which is rebounded and quickly stuffed back in by your team. League wide there's a lowish % likelihood that your team retains possession on missed drives and immediately scores, but on Kobe's drives the numbers are very high.

Over the last two seasons, Kobe had more than 200 of these "assists" - and at one point this year, he had done the following:

107 shots within 7.5' of the basket
63 made by Kobe
44 missed
--52% of these rebounded by LA
--32% of the misses were put back for a score

So, "of 100 close-range Kobe shots, 59% immediately find the net and 14 more find the net within seconds of being rebounded by a Laker; 83% of Kobe's close range shot attempts become points for the Lakers within five seconds."


Blocks are a stat that is nothing more than touching an opponents shot that doesn't go in. It doesn't have anything to do with a change of possession and it doesn't account for the guys that get a lot of blocks but are terrible defenders. McGee for example. Leaving your man to block a shot and missing the block and then your man gets the board and dunk..... this happened to Howard dozens of times this year. Ibake is the poster child for this as well. He isn't much of a defender other than his 3.1 blocks... most of which go back to the team that shot the ball. So... no I don't like the blocked shot in a vacuum.

Steals... while they are a change of possession they do not take into account how many times that player was deep fried gambling for the steal. Iverson had a lot of steals.... so does Paul... are they good defenders at their position? See? Again in a vacuum of the stat it's misleading at best.

Now I don't know what it would take to compile a stat of true hustle. 50-50 balls, chasing an obvious break only to have the guy miss and you get the board..... diving on the floor to get a jump ball.... covering for someone else gambling for a blocked shot or a steal.... :man1:

It would have to be done by the eye.... it couldn't be compiled off of a statistical analysis of existing stats I don't think.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby wcsoldier81 on Sun May 12, 2013 1:28 am

Hill as the 1st big off the bench is fine ... but not as a starting PF next to D12 ... we need a stretch PF ala David West/Millsap who can hit the midrange Js on a consistent basis while being solid enough on the defensive end off the floor

PF :? / Hill / Clark
C : D12/Hill/Sacre
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby trodgers on Sun May 12, 2013 5:19 am

^ Hill and Howard on the floor at the same time is surely limiting offensively (but Clark can play the 4). But they did play together a decent amount this season. 82games.com is showing that they combined for at least 151 minutes. They were outscored 168-178. But to be fair, Duhon (93) and Morris (28) were the most common PGs on the court with them.

I think a stretch 4 would be good, but given our PG and SF situations, we might not have the luxury of spending much money on one.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby wcsoldier81 on Sun May 12, 2013 9:09 am

Oh sure .. it's not realistic to think we can meet our all needs to become a solid contender in one "summer" ...

I tend to agree we can live with Hill as a starter ... acquiring new startings PG, SF and a nice SG/SF combo off the bench seem to be more important

I think we will adress two of these 4 " roster holes" at best
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby Doc Brown on Sun May 12, 2013 10:08 am

Hill and Howard would be the last of our worries.

Positions 1-3 need a serious boost.
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Re: Position Analysis: Bigs

Postby Rooscooter on Sun May 12, 2013 12:19 pm

Doc Brown wrote:Hill and Howard would be the last of our worries.

Positions 1-3 need a serious boost.



.....and 6-14 need some work as well....
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