Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby The Rock on Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:44 pm

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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Weezy on Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:12 am

Now that's a stat I like. :man10: Looking beyond the stat on the surface and digging deeper behind it. Not just looking at a stat sheet and saying "Kobe shot 20+ times, his fault the Lakers lost", but asking "why did he shoot a higher amount, what were the circumstances?".
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Battle Tested20 on Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:31 am

I like the video, but absolutely disagree with the notion that "Numbers Never Lie". I have always hated that concept.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby kobe_008 on Mon Jun 03, 2013 5:02 am

Can someone Watch this please
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Mon Jun 03, 2013 8:33 am

While this is less than 2 minutes it at least looks at the "reason" for shot attempts. I liked the graph that shows Kobe's shot attemps in the fourth quarter based on where the Lakers were at point wise to the opposition. The fact that his % went up 2% when he took more shots in the 4th says a lot. Many argue that "shot attempts" dictate Kobe isn't playing the right way but there are so many other factors to why his attempts are where they are for the game. I will agree with Battle Tested in the idea that I too dislike the numbers never lie notion. They do often.
For what it's worth, the Lakers also clinched the Pacific Division, an achievement Bryant dismissed by saying "We don't hang divisions." No, only the big NBA championship banners are considered wall-worthy for the Lakers.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Lakerjones on Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:02 am

^^ Good stuff. That video's a nice find. Of course the arm chair pundits probably won't ever take context into account like that.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby trodgers on Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:29 am

Battle Tested20 wrote:I like the video, but absolutely disagree with the notion that "Numbers Never Lie". I have always hated that concept.

Numbers don't lie. They don't assert anything but themselves - and asserting is required for a lie.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Battle Tested20 on Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:36 am

trodgers wrote:
Battle Tested20 wrote:I like the video, but absolutely disagree with the notion that "Numbers Never Lie". I have always hated that concept.

Numbers don't lie. They don't assert anything but themselves - and asserting is required for a lie.

Let me rephrase what I meant to say. I disagree that numbers should be the barometer to whether someone is better than someone else or this person is better than that person because he puts up better "numbers" in this category.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby trodgers on Tue Jun 04, 2013 5:06 am

I agree with that.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Finwë on Tue Jun 04, 2013 8:25 pm

Cool vid.
"The first time I ever saw my uniform hanging in the locker I put it on right away, and it just felt like I was putting on golden armour. From that day forward, I just called it 'the golden armour', it just felt like there was something mystical and magical about it" - Kobe Bryant.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby JGC on Thu Jun 06, 2013 6:11 pm

The video itself is very cool, love the animations. I'm not sure though, that the content of the video disproved anything. It also leaves a lot of questions, IMO.

For starters, it's not the efficiency that is the basis of the 'overshooting' gripe. He may be shooting at a higher efficiency when he's taking more shots, but that doesn't mean that he is shooting at an efficient clip. Sure, he's apparently shooting 2% better when he takes more shots but that could be like shooting 36% instead of 34%. And they didn't cover that in the video.

Even if Kobe alone was shooting 45% or better, the whole point is that as a general rule, the best way to win games whether you're behind or ahead is by getting efficient contribution from the team as a whole. A player can carry you in spurts but you need to diversify to get efficiency over time. It doesn't matter (to me) if one single player no matter WHO it is shoots a good percentage in the 4th. I want to see the team playing efficiently and effectively as a single unit, and this video didn't suggest that that was the case at all. If his data showed that the teammates play better, and more efficiently, when Kobe shoots more, then I might re-consider my viewpoint.

The video also concludes, based on this data, that the team would then have lost even more games had Kobe not taken those shots. That isn't true either. It's certainly a possibility, but, who is to say had Kobe NOT taken those shots at a clip of 45%, that the teammates wouldn't have shot those shots at a clip of 46% or more? That's certainly a possibility as well.

There are times when you need your star to step up to the plate and carry his team scoring wise for a few possessions. I dont think anyone has an issue with that. That's what stars are for. But stars are also for making their teammates better and getting more out of them than you could ever expect to. Their for carrying their team in a variety of ways. And Kobe has certainly done that throughout his career, but he can put this team on his back in a myriad of ways, not just by putting the ball in the basket by himself which I think he had a tendency to resort to as the strategy at times.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:02 pm

As good as I expected.
For what it's worth, the Lakers also clinched the Pacific Division, an achievement Bryant dismissed by saying "We don't hang divisions." No, only the big NBA championship banners are considered wall-worthy for the Lakers.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby trodgers on Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:01 pm

I agree that the video doesn't do very much to really dispel the notion - but based on what is " as a general rule, the best way to win games whether you're behind or ahead is by getting efficient contribution from the team as a whole"? Prove that as a general rule. Then prove that it applies also to the Lakers with their current lineup. Then prove that the other players step up if event X occurs. Then prove that even X can occur with a regularity sufficient to justify THAT approach instead of a Kobe heavy approach.

In other words, we can criticize the video for being either off the mark or simply wrong - but we can surely do the same with armchair remarks.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby JGC on Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:02 am

trodgers wrote:I agree that the video doesn't do very much to really dispel the notion - but based on what is " as a general rule, the best way to win games whether you're behind or ahead is by getting efficient contribution from the team as a whole"? Prove that as a general rule. Then prove that it applies also to the Lakers with their current lineup. Then prove that the other players step up if event X occurs. Then prove that even X can occur with a regularity sufficient to justify THAT approach instead of a Kobe heavy approach.

In other words, we can criticize the video for being either off the mark or simply wrong - but we can surely do the same with armchair remarks.


Well, I'm not sure anyone can empirically prove much of anything in sports. You can't even PROVE that Kobe is better than Mark Madsen. It's possible, we haven't seen the best of Mark Madsen. We can only draw some conclusions based on assumptions about what we have seen thus far.

For me, what I've observed, is that with all of the teams in all of the sports I have seen play, that play well and succeed, they have had positive contributions from multiple players. So that leads me to conclude that the recipe for success, and by success I mean win, in team sports, is to get positive contributions from multiple players. I haven't seen many, if any, teams have great success by NOT getting positive contributions from multiple players.

That doesn't mean it has to be one guy taking all the shots, or perfectly even distribution across all of the players on the court -- it just means that you have to get help, on both ends of the court, from more than 1 person.

From a proof standpoint, the video proves nothing. But, the animations are pretty slick IMO.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Murdock on Fri Jun 07, 2013 3:30 am

trodgers wrote:
Battle Tested20 wrote:I like the video, but absolutely disagree with the notion that "Numbers Never Lie". I have always hated that concept.

Numbers don't lie. They don't assert anything but themselves - and asserting is required for a lie.


well numbers themselves don't lie ... but they lie in context ... this whole video is a great example ... they focused on specific part of kobe's game not whole ... another interpretation can be made when Kobe shoots around 40% of the teams shots they tend to lose by 10 of more points ... we have no data that shows the progress of how the team got to that fourth quarter when they are losing by 10 or more - the reason might be because Kobe is shooting over 40% of all teams shots before the 4th quarter ... they also din't say if his increasing volume is actually increasing the negative differential or decreasing it which is the whole point

this video proved absolutely nothing ... you can always spin the numbers to your liking by separating certain things ... only complex analysis gives you the whole picture ... i wonder why they focused on 4th quarter only
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Fri Jun 07, 2013 10:36 am

Murdock wrote:
trodgers wrote:
Battle Tested20 wrote:I like the video, but absolutely disagree with the notion that "Numbers Never Lie". I have always hated that concept.

Numbers don't lie. They don't assert anything but themselves - and asserting is required for a lie.


well numbers themselves don't lie ... but they lie in context ... this whole video is a great example ... they focused on specific part of kobe's game not whole ... another interpretation can be made when Kobe shoots around 40% of the teams shots they tend to lose by 10 of more points ... we have no data that shows the progress of how the team got to that fourth quarter when they are losing by 10 or more - the reason might be because Kobe is shooting over 40% of all teams shots before the 4th quarter ... they also din't say if his increasing volume is actually increasing the negative differential or decreasing it which is the whole point

this video proved absolutely nothing ... you can always spin the numbers to your liking by separating certain things ... only complex analysis gives you the whole picture ... i wonder why they focused on 4th quarter only

SO then by that logic you don't believe any of the statistical information provided by anyone on anything? We can add our own stipulations to anything to negate or support a finding. Why not focus solely on the 2nd and 3rd quarters in games that start at 430 instead of 730? I don't find it suprising that certain posters find so many flaws in this video. Of course I am sure those same posters will say the same about those who don't find the flaws in it... Guilty!

In the end, this video and research looked at some specifics that have been complained about or atleast pointed too as reasons the Lakers are losing. They chose the 4th quarter, in my opinion, because that is when games are won.
For what it's worth, the Lakers also clinched the Pacific Division, an achievement Bryant dismissed by saying "We don't hang divisions." No, only the big NBA championship banners are considered wall-worthy for the Lakers.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby trodgers on Fri Jun 07, 2013 10:59 am

JGC wrote:
trodgers wrote:I agree that the video doesn't do very much to really dispel the notion - but based on what is " as a general rule, the best way to win games whether you're behind or ahead is by getting efficient contribution from the team as a whole"? Prove that as a general rule. Then prove that it applies also to the Lakers with their current lineup. Then prove that the other players step up if event X occurs. Then prove that even X can occur with a regularity sufficient to justify THAT approach instead of a Kobe heavy approach.

In other words, we can criticize the video for being either off the mark or simply wrong - but we can surely do the same with armchair remarks.


Well, I'm not sure anyone can empirically prove much of anything in sports. You can't even PROVE that Kobe is better than Mark Madsen. It's possible, we haven't seen the best of Mark Madsen. We can only draw some conclusions based on assumptions about what we have seen thus far.

Why not? What do you mean by "PROVE" when you capitalize it? I have no idea.

For me, what I've observed, is that with all of the teams in all of the sports I have seen play, that play well and succeed, they have had positive contributions from multiple players. So that leads me to conclude that the recipe for success, and by success I mean win, in team sports, is to get positive contributions from multiple players. I haven't seen many, if any, teams have great success by NOT getting positive contributions from multiple players.

That's an interesting observation, but it doesn't stand up to the scrutiny of the scientific method. There's no control, after all. That's a good start.

That doesn't mean it has to be one guy taking all the shots, or perfectly even distribution across all of the players on the court -- it just means that you have to get help, on both ends of the court, from more than 1 person.

Who doubts that?

From a proof standpoint, the video proves nothing. But, the animations are pretty slick IMO.

I agree.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Murdock on Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:10 pm

puffyusaf#2 wrote:SO then by that logic you don't believe any of the statistical information provided by anyone on anything? We can add our own stipulations to anything to negate or support a finding. Why not focus solely on the 2nd and 3rd quarters in games that start at 430 instead of 730? I don't find it suprising that certain posters find so many flaws in this video. Of course I am sure those same posters will say the same about those who don't find the flaws in it... Guilty!

In the end, this video and research looked at some specifics that have been complained about or atleast pointed too as reasons the Lakers are losing. They chose the 4th quarter, in my opinion, because that is when games are won.


well sorry but it is true it is called statistical analysis for a reason you have to analyze the data ... and especially in game of basketball you have to take into account everything not just one quarter because that is not where the game is won ... this analysis said outcome but not the cause .... why are the lakers in negative differential at the beginning of the quarter (is it because kobe was shooting 40% of team shots up until the 4th quarter?) if so it is completely fale argument by the author ... if however he was shooting only 20% of team's shot up until the 4th it makes sence what they were saying and supported all Kobe blind fans BUT it didn't ... the analysis as it stood said NOTHING of how Kobe affects the team without the proper context ... which is what they wanted to say ...

not only that but it was basically contradicting you and supporting everybody who claims taht Kobe holds ball too much ... when they are ahead he isn't shooting much - maybe because precisely because he is not shooting that much and MAYBE not ... there wasn't a proper context to it
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Fri Jun 07, 2013 3:47 pm

^so you don't agree with any statistical data. OK. Then it must be left up to strict opinion to explain "context". I look at the team standing around and/or missing as a need for Kobe to shoot the ball. You on the other hand see Kobe shooting the ball as a cause for guys standing around. Same game different view. Stats be damned.
For what it's worth, the Lakers also clinched the Pacific Division, an achievement Bryant dismissed by saying "We don't hang divisions." No, only the big NBA championship banners are considered wall-worthy for the Lakers.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Murdock on Fri Jun 07, 2013 5:31 pm

puffyusaf#2 wrote:^so you don't agree with any statistical data. OK. Then it must be left up to strict opinion to explain "context". I look at the team standing around and/or missing as a need for Kobe to shoot the ball. You on the other hand see Kobe shooting the ball as a cause for guys standing around. Same game different view. Stats be damned.


On contraty I very much agree with statistical data but in proper and complex context, not pulled out of context to serve ones benefit or angle you want to spin it ...

in order for data to be objective and true predicate about certain fact you have to be given all variable in order for you analysis and proof to be objective and irrefutable ... you have give them all (thus you have a context) or none ... that way they are not objective

You could argue like this ... Dwight Howard in one game hits 14/16 FTs ... your way you argue, without a context would make it sound like Dwight Howard is an excellent free throw shooter. It was taken out of context without relation to all his other games ...

Or that ROA of certain company is 0.3 you could argue it is small figure, but this number might the biggest in the whole industry in the country. You need a context to make a judgement.

So in order for those data they showed to have any credibility, they need also show how the team and Kobe were doing throughout the first three quarters, what are the main factors that caused that lakers are behind, what is the percentage of ball distribution etc. You need to know what caused lakers to be losing by those 10 points in order to say it is not Kobe's fault (which is what they defend)

in the end they didn't defend anything the only thing they did was to tell us this:
If the Lakers SOMEWHERE in the 4th quarter are losing by 10 points in those scenarios Kobe takes 40% of the team's shots ... It DID NOT say Kobe was responsible or irresponsible for Lakers to be losing by 10, he might have been might not have been or how he converts that negative differential in the actual game, does it increase or increase? What it did say was that when losing Kobe is shooting more and when leading he is shooting less ... So does that mean he should be shooting less for lakers to win? oh yeah it does...

Statistics is not only about collecting and presenting data, you have to analyse the data properly ... and to do that it has to objective, thus complex and withing a certain context
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby puffyusaf#2 on Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:15 pm

^And all that is to say that none of the statistics given is worth anything because there is not way to input all the particular variables one would need to get a true accurate picture of anything that has a million variables. Again, by your reasoning every single statistical presentation is flawed because it cannot possible consider every variable and put those variables into context that would satisfy the masses. If that is the case I have one question. Why even bother watching, commenting on or waisting your time on this at all?
For what it's worth, the Lakers also clinched the Pacific Division, an achievement Bryant dismissed by saying "We don't hang divisions." No, only the big NBA championship banners are considered wall-worthy for the Lakers.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Finwë on Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:25 pm

Unrelated: Trodgers, you seem to be a guy interested in sports statistics and crunching numbers and whatnot, what do you think of the famous PER metric?
I get the basics of it and understand why a higher PER is considered better than a lower PER, but just how accurate (in terms of reflecting efficiency and production) is it?
Would you consider it (like many analysts do) one of the best metrics out there?
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby Murdock on Sat Jun 08, 2013 3:44 am

puffyusaf#2 wrote:^And all that is to say that none of the statistics given is worth anything because there is not way to input all the particular variables one would need to get a true accurate picture of anything that has a million variables. Again, by your reasoning every single statistical presentation is flawed because it cannot possible consider every variable and put those variables into context that would satisfy the masses. If that is the case I have one question. Why even bother watching, commenting on or waisting your time on this at all?


That is also not true you have per game statistics they have its own predictative value ... you have true shooting stats they have it's own value ... If you present stats and data in a proper way withing right complex adjusted for meaningless data you have a great statistic. This video didn't do that. It didn't tell you anything. The only thing it told you is that when we are winning in the 4th quarter team is shooting more and when we are losing Kobe is taking majority of the shots. Which in the end supports the claims that Kobe should shoot less.

Why did I bother to comment? For the fact that the video itself doesn't deprive Kobe any blame if you put it that way ... Author made the video to say that Kobe's ball hogging is actually benefitial and doesn't hurt the team.

That is simply not true based on the data any analysis the video provided. The video and its claims and conclusions are false and on the other hand actually support all Kobe's accusator that he shoots the ball too much and it creates negative differential. Why? Because it didn't give the proper context for their argument. It didn't say anything to support Kobe's shooting volume.

So I just wanted to point out to everyone (and I guess mainly to you since you think it takes away any blame off Kobe) that the video didn't do it's purpose and in all actuality you could also argue it did the exact opposite.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby trodgers on Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:58 am

Murdock wrote:
trodgers wrote:
Battle Tested20 wrote:I like the video, but absolutely disagree with the notion that "Numbers Never Lie". I have always hated that concept.

Numbers don't lie. They don't assert anything but themselves - and asserting is required for a lie.


well numbers themselves don't lie ... but they lie in context ...

No, they don't. Lies require assertions. Numbers don't assert.

A lie is a false statement to a person or group made by another person or group who knows it is not the whole truth, intentionally.
Numbers don't do any of that on their own. They aren't false. They aren't statements (assertions). They aren't aware that they're not the whole truth. And they don't do anything intentionally.

this whole video is a great example ... they focused on specific part of kobe's game not whole ... another interpretation can be made when Kobe shoots around 40% of the teams shots they tend to lose by 10 of more points ...

This doesn't show that numbers lie. This is an attempt to explain a fact. Check out how abductive and inductive arguments work. Science is remarkably successful at offering such arguments, and you surely accept them. I mean YOU.

we have no data that shows the progress of how the team got to that fourth quarter when they are losing by 10 or more - the reason might be because Kobe is shooting over 40% of all teams shots before the 4th quarter ... they also din't say if his increasing volume is actually increasing the negative differential or decreasing it which is the whole point

That doesn't mean that numbers lie. This, of course, means that you think we need more data before we come to a final conclusion. I agree with you.

this video proved absolutely nothing ... you can always spin the numbers to your liking by separating certain things ... only complex analysis gives you the whole picture ... i wonder why they focused on 4th quarter only

You're not disagreeing with me on anything interesting.
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Re: Relationship between Kobe's shot attempts and winning

Postby kobe_008 on Sat Jun 08, 2013 6:20 am

as expected
2/3 so far
1more and we are going to roll
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