I don't believe the Hawks want Pau, esp with new management, but it's worth noting on teh Lakers side
that Dwight Howard and Josh Smith are childhood friends. If the priority is to keep Howard long-term, I would imagine it wouldn't hurt to have one of his best friends from the ATL alongside him.
I don't think that's why the Lakers make a move like that - but it's a factor worth noting. The decision isn't made yet on Pau.
Even if LA re-signed Smith on a big contract - it's going to be less than what Gasol is set to make next season.
Theoretically . . . also, it's very difficult to manufacture a three-team trade midseason - but they happen.
Another thing, if management is scared to deal Pau b/c of D12 leaving this offseason, they should make one hell of a push for Smith. That should take that 5% uncertainty to about 2.5%.