Salary cap clarification...

The team has $68 million in guaranteed contracts next season with no changes being made. Stern is projecting a 20% growth in revenue this season, the cap and luxury tax threshold could jump up substantially. The next salary cap could be over $68 million and the luxury tax threshold up over $83 million based on Stern’s projected revenue growth. Sources:
http://www.nba.com/2012/news/11/13/ster ... index.html
http://samcelt.forumotion.net/t4174-201 ... luxury-tax

Theoretically, the Lakers could amnesty Gasol this summer and open up another $19 million. If Howard leaves and Gasol is amnestied, that puts them down near $49 million for the team cap, with Kobe making $30 mil. That should leave them with another $30 million to spend before they hit the luxury tax threshold. Doesn’t seem like doom and gloom to me... am I understanding this correctly? Of course, you don't know who is going to be available in the offseason to replace Gasol and/or Howard. If Howard signs, that means they could still amnesty Gasol and make room to sign a fairly big free agent or make a trade, assuming that luxury tax threshold is accurate. Again, maybe I'm getting it all wrong. The plan seems to be to target the summer of 2014 with the cap space, but seems to me like they can reload this summer and still make a big splash the following summer.

Of course, it all hinges on what the cap turns out to be, but it seems like things might not be that bad next season if those revenue numbers Stern quoted are accurate. If this is indeed the case, I can see why some people were confused when OKC traded Harden instead of waiting to see what the new cap would be this coming summer.

looks nice in theory but dont think its gona work out to a T like you're indicating, especialling the amesntying Pau part, this team wouldn't even amensty a useless bum like Blake @ barely $10mill, why would they amensty a $20mill expiring?

khmrP wrote:looks nice in theory but dont think its gona work out to a T like you're indicating, especialling the amesntying Pau part, this team wouldn't even amensty a useless bum like Blake @ barely $10mill, why would they amensty a $20mill expiring?

True, it's not the smartest thing to do using the amnesty on Pau, but theoretically, it could turn them around sooner.

I think you're understanding it correctly, but there's no reason to amnesty Gasol. He will be a huge expiring contract next year. I think Mitch is going to try to flip him for a quality young player or two, or perhaps try to get a high pick for him and be semi-competitive next year.

Next, they will do everything they can to re-sign Dwight with a promise to build a new, young team around him (and another max star player) in Summer 2014. Let everyone else "expire", re-sign our young guys like Clark and Hill if they want to (great bench role-players), trade Nash's expiring contract. Throw max at the most promising player out there in 2014 to pair with Dwight and get cheaper, athletic players who can run. This is all very doable, because -- if Dwight stays -- he's the only player on the roster, plus a $9M expiring of Steve Nash. If Mitch plays is right, 1/2 years of suckage will be easily forgotten.

Ludachris wrote:

khmrP wrote:looks nice in theory but dont think its gona work out to a T like you're indicating, especialling the amesntying Pau part, this team wouldn't even amensty a useless bum like Blake @ barely $10mill, why would they amensty a $20mill expiring?

True, it's not the smartest thing to do using the amnesty on Pau, but theoretically, it could turn them around sooner.

They still have to pay his salary if he's amnestied though, right? Nevertheless, it doesn't go against the CAP, since he's off the books. Thoretically, you could be onto something. I still wouldn't amnesty Pau unless his value has completely dropped where he couldn't be used to get the pieces we need. We do have some expiring K's this year, though. We can finally move some of this deadweight...

dwighthowardsdad wrote:

Ludachris wrote:

khmrP wrote:looks nice in theory but dont think its gona work out to a T like you're indicating, especialling the amesntying Pau part, this team wouldn't even amensty a useless bum like Blake @ barely $10mill, why would they amensty a $20mill expiring?

True, it's not the smartest thing to do using the amnesty on Pau, but theoretically, it could turn them around sooner.

They still have to pay his salary if he's amnestied though, right? Nevertheless, it doesn't go against the CAP, since he's off the books. Thoretically, you could be onto something. I still wouldn't amnesty Pau unless his value has completely dropped where he couldn't be used to get the pieces we need. We do have some expiring K's this year, though. We can finally move some of this deadweight...

No, you guys are right that probably is the better option. He will be worth more being a huge expiring contract that someone will want. We might be able to get something good for him that way. But then again, if you amnesty him, you only pay part of his salary, and it's off the books, as to where if you trade him, you might lose more flexibility come the following summer with all those contracts you have to take back in return.

Trade market for Pau Gasol complicated because Lakers have made clear that they don't want back long-term money in deal, league sources say.

https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA

This is key. Let me explain. The Lakers are not taking any contracts back that go beyond 2014/15. What if the Lakers can't find any suitors for Pau that won't include a long-term contract? Do they amnesty him then? I still think they'll find a suitor. It could even be in Feb.

I think they can find someone who can offer them one of these options:

1. Short-term expensive contract+ high pick
2. Short-term expensive contract+ a solid young player (Wing)
3. Two solid young players (PG, Wing) that can be counted on after 2014 and would fit with Dwight.

Mitch is probably not counting on #3, but you never know. If he can get a young guy with a relatively short contract with a high pick thrown in... it's a "Do it, Mitch" type of situation.

dwighthowardsdad wrote:

Trade market for Pau Gasol complicated because Lakers have made clear that they don't want back long-term money in deal, league sources say.

https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA

This is key. Let me explain. The Lakers are not taking any contracts back that go beyond 2014/15. What if the Lakers can't find any suitors for Pau that won't include a long-term contract? Do they amnesty him then? I still think they'll find a suitor. It could even be in Feb.

That's partly what makes me think they might consider the amnesty option with him. Trading him as an expiring contract next year will have the same issues, there won't be many takers with the type of contracts Mitch wants. I think it really comes down to whether or not there is a free agent available this summer that Mitch is targeting for a long term deal. He might chance cutting Gasol for that if he thinks he can lure that player. If not, and if they think Gasol makes more sense they'll just hold on to him. Probably a lot of different possibilities that factor into it all.

I can't see anyone trading a decent pick for Gasol.

Ludachris wrote:

dwighthowardsdad wrote:

Trade market for Pau Gasol complicated because Lakers have made clear that they don't want back long-term money in deal, league sources say.

https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA

This is key. Let me explain. The Lakers are not taking any contracts back that go beyond 2014/15. What if the Lakers can't find any suitors for Pau that won't include a long-term contract? Do they amnesty him then? I still think they'll find a suitor. It could even be in Feb.

That's partly what makes me think they might consider the amnesty option with him. Trading him as an expiring contract next year will have the same issues, there won't be many takers with the type of contracts Mitch wants. I think it really comes down to whether or not there is a free agent available this summer that Mitch is targeting for a long term deal. He might chance cutting Gasol for that if he thinks he can lure that player. If not, and if they think Gasol makes more sense they'll just hold on to him. Probably a lot of different possibilities that factor into it all.

I can't see anyone trading a decent pick for Gasol.

What teams have really been interested in Gasol that we know about? Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte. Quite frankly, there is no one on any of those rosters that I think Mitch would want. The most intriguing player involved was Eric Gordon, IMO. Nevertheless, injuries have been the story of his career. Otherwise, it's all garbage. I don't know who else would be interested and with enough room to absorb such an exhorbitant salary and have the pieces that we need to improve this team...

There was a rumor about the 'Cats and their pick. I don't know...

I think it's more likely to find a player that would work as a future starter on our team (someone who is currently not happy with their team?), even after 2014; someone who can play with Dwight. That guy, plus a cheaper, younger player to "sweeten the deal" might get it done. It is difficult, but definitely not impossible. That team would be getting rid of an unhappy player, and - essentially - for that and one unproven young guy - could get our "star starter" to either keep as their starting center (which, in the East is probably a decent idea) or use as a $20M expiring.

You know what? I said Eric Gordon was the most intriguing player; He and Jose Calderon who was rumored to be apart of the Toronto deal. The problem with that is the other players included were not what we needed (sucked) at this time. Neverthless, Calderon is a perfect backup PG that can flat out play...

I think it's too late to use the amnesty clause already. The main use of that was if you had too many bad contracts at once, but there's a limited number of players that it can be used on this team (Gasol, Bryant, Blake, Artest) and 3 of their contracts expire next year anyway which may or may not allow for a trade for expiring contracts kinda thing.

So wait, is the luxury tax threshold going to be around $78M next season?

That's effing awesome. If I read correctly, even with Gasol & Howard on the books for 2013-14, we still have barely hit luxury tax?

And that would be year 2 of luxury tax? Per the new CBA rules

If the Lakers were RIGHT there, right on the cusp of being elite, I think they would consider moving Gasol. But given how far they have to go, it is clear moving Gasol for any reasonable package isn't going to net you the pieces you need to become elite. That's the part that makes me think the Lakers will just let him expire and start over in 2014. This roster isn't worth trying to salvage because what it would take is so dramatic that it just isn't realistic.

It's a shame in a way that the Clippers are doing so well. While I wouldn't ever expect us to make a trade with them, they have some pieces they probably want to move if they were a middle of the road team. I think they'd want to move Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan and another piece for a guy like Dwight. But they're doing so well, they're not going to want to mess with what they have. (Why Bledsoe? They can't keep him as long as they have CP3. He'll want more PT and more money.)

CP3, Griffin and Dwight, with that bench? Uh... do you want to start a Clipper dynasty or something?

karacha wrote:CP3, Griffin and Dwight, with that bench? Uh... do you want to start a Clipper dynasty or something?

JGC suspiciously talking like a blue and red defector

People keep expecting big moves but I don't think it's going to happen........... unless a deal too good to be true exist they will not do anything to jeopardize their cap flexibility in a year and a half. They also would be hesitant to move Gasol before having a real good feel on Howard's position in the off-season...... They would not want to go into next year void a center would they? if they would than the kookoo has gone left the clock in the Lakers FO and MDA would be in his perfect fantasy land where the skies are pink and midgets rule basketball.

karacha wrote:I think they can find someone who can offer them one of these options:

1. Short-term expensive contract+ high pick
2. Short-term expensive contract+ a solid young player (Wing)
3. Two solid young players (PG, Wing) that can be counted on after 2014 and would fit with Dwight.

Mitch is probably not counting on #3, but you never know. If he can get a young guy with a relatively short contract with a high pick thrown in... it's a "Do it, Mitch" type of situation.

I think it's even more complicated than that really.......... they most likely would need a big back in case Howard walks next season no? You are concentrating on a wing which this team does need but you are forgetting the potential void that might be created here. If MDA is still coach of the Lakers after the season I could see Howard walking and if you traded Gasol for the above 3 than you still could be in a huge pickle with not even a serviceable center to put on the floor. All those 3 options you listed make the assumption that Howard stays. I would have assumed Howard staying too considering the leverage the Lakers should hold within what they can offer Howard cash wise but after the MDA hiring and the suspect decision making from the FO all year that looks bi-polar in nature I would not make that assumption these days..... Howard could walk.

In that case, they should call the Wolves again about that Pekovic+whatever deal. Because he's a legitimate big in this league. An no one is ever going to call him soft. He's a 16/9 player, can hit his FTs, and is almost 300 lbs of muscle.

karacha wrote:In that case, they should call the Wolves again about that Pekovic+whatever deal. Because he's a legitimate big in this league. An no one is ever going to call him soft. He's a 16/9 player, can hit his FTs, and is almost 300 lbs of muscle.

When was Pek ever on the table? I thought it was only Derrick Williams... but then again, I guess nobody really knows for sure.