LA’s Offseason: State of the Organization

Outside Looking In
Los Angeles Lakers Offseason Preview

Season Recap
After a disappointing season in 04/05, complete with the loss of a coach, a star player to injury for the last quarter, and a full on nosedive, LA bounced back with healthy stars, the greatest coach in the history of the NBA, but a supporting cast of underachievers and unknowns. LA finished with 45 wins, playing some of the best ball in the NBA after the All Star Break to earn the 7th seed in the playoffs. Despite a team that suddenly seemed to grasp the concept of teamwork, and a huge 3-1 lead, LA was bounced from the playoffs by eventual Western Conference Finals loser Phoenix. LA’s offense (thanks to Kobe Bryant) was solid, the defense improved to be about average, and, despite a schedule ranked in the top 10 in terms of difficulty, LA provided much to make their fans forget 04/05.

Team Needs
LA needs a PG desperately. Smush Parker is not a starter in the NBA at this point. Even if he develops his defensive game, which seems hellishly unlikely given his desire to play street ball this offseason, another PG of at least Parker’s physical ability level (and superior mental toughness) is a necessity. LA also needs a Forward. Neither Kwame Brown nor Chris Mihm seems able to play the PF spot. Luke Walton is not a starter at SF, Ronny Turiaf is not ready at PF, and Devean George is gone. Lamar Odom cannot play both SF and PF at the same time. Thus, LA needs someone for one of those two spots. Secondary needs include a veteran or two, some perimeter defense, and an outside shooter. A shot blocker would be a nice luxury.
Recommendation: Obviously, LA needs to address these needs. If multiple needs can be addressed with one move, for instance a godsend who could play defense, has veteran savvy, and a good outside shooting touch at the PG or F spot would take care of many needs simultaneously.

Cap Situation
Even without Brian Grant’s contract counting against the Luxury Threshold, LA has no traditional, big options. They are at or over cap. As a result, they will have the Mid Level Exception (MLE), valued at around $5.25M. Because they did not spend their Bi-Annual Exception (BAE) last season, they have an additional $1.75M contract available for offering. An unlimited (up to the roster maximum) number of veterans can be added for the Minimum based on time of service. Draftees receive contracts that do not count against any of these previously mentioned signing options. Finally, LA has a few small trade exceptions outstanding.
Recommendation: LA is not going to get under cap this season. In fact, the odds that LA will ever be under cap while Odom and Kobe Bryant are on the team are slim. If absolutely no one else is signed, then in 07/08, LA will have the ability to sign a player to a max contract. Personally, I’d rather see Andrew Bynum and Turiaf develop into competent players, as well as any players signed for MLE this and next season become solid contributors. There is no real reason, unless LeBron James has personally said that he would come to LA, for LA to try to get cap space. Avoiding the Luxury Threshold, however, is obviously desirable.

Draft
LA has two picks in the upcoming draft. In the first round, LA will select with the #26 pick. In the second, LA will select the 51st overall player. Their selections could be influenced by other moves, obviously. There was talk that LA would try to move up to #4 to select Brandon Roy, but LA really has nothing of interest to offer without dismantling the “core” of Kobe, Odom, Brown, and Bynum.
Recommendation: It’s not always the best strategy, but LA should select the best available player. This will almost assuredly be a PG/SG in the first round. Initially, Thabo Sefolosha was looking like a great fit, but he has likely secured himself a higher draft position now that his name is out there. Quincy Douby (6′3 PG), Mardy Collins (6′6 G) become the two top names for LA’s #26 pick then (assuming Rajon Rondo (6′2 PG) is off the boards as well). Either pick would give LA a young player to learn the ropes of the triangle while backing up both the PG and, occasionally, the SG spot (likely with help from Sasha Vujacic). The second round seems as if there will be some good risks for LA. I’d go with Taj Gray, 6′9 PF from Oklahoma, who is being compared to Chris Wilcox, if he is still on the board. Yes, LA has some bigs, but Gray has a decent upside, and there is no such thing as too many bigs. One or both of these picks would probably go to the D-League, to LA’s own team, where they would learn the triangle. This is a huge move for LA, giving them, in effect, their own farm system where players learn their system while honing their game for the NBA.

Free Agents
Devean George is the most high profile Free Agent for LA. After seven years in the system, Devean has not fulfilled any of the hopes of the fans who saw him taken as the #23 pick. Blame it on injuries, mental weakness, or a lackluster work ethic, but George has not developed a consistent shot from anywhere but the three point line. His defense, though good at times, is streaky. His ball handling and playmaking ability are sorely lacking. He will never be an NBA starter, at least not on the Lakers. Mitch Kupchak said as much, noting that George, if brought back, would fill a similar role to this season, where he was generally 6th, 7th, or 8th man. One simply cannot pay the kind of money George will seek (in the neighborhood of $4M) for someone in that role. Also Free Agents are late season addition Jim Jackson, huge disappointment Von Wafer, and Devin Green, a surprise addition to the roster. Neither of the rookies made a dent in the books. Jackson, though his defense was solid, looked out of sync on offense, consistently making poor entry passes down the stretch.
Recommendations: If I had to bring back one of the FAs, it would be Jackson, despite his age. He is a consistent shooter from three-point range, a hard worker in terms of conditioning and defense, and a playoff vet with all the savvy that typically accompanies that fact. Wafer and Green may be worth camp invites so they can show off their (hopefully) improved games. In reality, I don’t expect any of them to be back.

Starting Five
How about a starting three? LA seems happy with the promise shown by Lamar Odom and Kwame Brown. Kobe Bryant is a given. Chris Mihm, after two surprisingly solid seasons, is on the outside looking in. Kwame does most of what Mihm does offensively, but is a significantly better defender. Neither has shown the ability to move to the PF spot, so one is probably gone. I say that’s Mihm. Walton and George picked up the SF spot when Odom wasn’t there. Neither did an impressive job until Walton’s breakthrough performance (again) in the playoffs. I don’t think that he is a long-term fix, but he is a great bench player in the triangle. Smush Parker can dunk like few PGs in the league. Also, he doesn’t have the ball in his hands enough to make too many stupid mistakes. On defense, however, while he makes good gambles, picks up a lot of steals, he is a turnstyle, the likes of which LA fans haven’t seen since Chucky Atkins and Caron Butler. He is not an option at the starting spot. This leaves LA in need of a PG and a F.
Recommendations: Get a PG and a F as soon as possible. These are urgent needs if the team is going to get past the second round or, God forbid, have to play without Kobe or Odom due to injuries at any point next season.

Bench
Sasha Vujacic struggled mightily in Summer Pro League (SPL). He then surprised everyone with his intensity on the defensive side of the game, and improved on his dreadful shooting percentages as a rookie. He does not play aggressively enough (Phoenix series aside) to warrant long stretches of playing time, however. Nonetheless, he remains a competent backup at the PG/SG spots. See above for Luke Walton’s contributions. Ronnie Turiaf and Andrew Bynum showed flashes as backups at the 4 and 5 spots. Turiaf impressed me most of all, working hard on defense, under the boards, and especially with his scoring ability and skill at getting to the free throw line. Brian Cook, probably the team’s best pure shooter, showed that he is going to keep working hard to improve areas of his game. That outside shot is pretty deadly. Unfortunately, he is a one-dimensional player at this point. He is also a turnstyle. Aaron McKie did little more for LA than I did this season. And I live in Texas.
Recommendations: The young men (Sasha, Turiaf, Bynum) are probably going to become solid bench players. That would effectively cover the PG, SG, PF, and C spots on the second team. Walton is already solid at the SF bench spot. After having literally the worst bench in the league two season ago, LA’s bench was only a bit below average last season, and should be right in the middle of the pack next season. The development of Turiaf and Bynum are key. Shifting Smush to the bench would make a very potent second unit. LA must find a way to get Smush and Walton to the bench.

Signings
LA can re-sign Devean George. Or they can help their team. Marcus Banks, a solid PG defender who showed off a good three point shot at Minnesota, in addition to good defense, has shown interest in LA (and vice versa). He would likely accept around $4M of the MLE to come and start for LA. This would be a solid upgrade over Smush Parker. Players like Rasual Butler, Kareem Rush, Jumaine Jones, Jannero Pargo have been mentioned, at least among fans, as possible recipients of the BAE. Toni Kukoc, LaRon Profit, and Stacey Augmon can be added to the mix. How many of these players fit LA’s needs?
Recommendations: If LA does not get a PG through a trade, the Banks signing sounds like a no-brainer. If that happens, then there is no reason to sign a guy like Pargo. Profit was solid as Kobe’s backup, but isn’t worth the BAE. Kareem Rush has no work ethic, it seems, and was cut from one of the NBA’s worst teams. Kukoc still has a bit left in his tank. Only a bit though. I’d sign him for the Veteran’s Minimum (for him, it would be close to the BAE). I would offer the BAE to Jarron Collins. Bo Outlaw is another possibility. Most intriguing, to me, is the thought of having the “remainder” from the MLE if LA signs Banks. A five-year deal beginning at around $1.25M and topping out at $1.7M in year five should be enough to lure a young talent or a solid career bench player. If LA can lure a player like Linton Johnson, who works hard, hits the outside shot, the remainder could be their best offseason move.

Trades
There have been several rumored trades, including Mihm as the centerpiece in a deal to Chicago, possibly for Ben Gordon. Another trade has Darius Miles from Portland as the centerpiece for Mihm. I dismiss most of the other trades as either impractical or stupid (including taking back Derek Fisher’s contract). Carlos Boozer would take too much doing. Kevin Garnett is not being traded, at least not to LA. Gordon and Miles remain as possibilities because they are both young players. If LA is going to take a gamble on anyone, it would have to be a young player who has shown a lot of potential. Both of these men fit the bill. Mihm for Gordon would just about work, in terms of the cap. That move would move Kobe to SF, Odom to PF, and mean that Smush would remain the PG unless someone else could be brought in. Gordon can certainly score, but he does not play defense. This move would be intriguing. The Miles move is equally intriguing, but it is a bigger risk because Miles’s contract is long and expensive. He has also dealt with injuries. There is, however, the chance that Steve Blake or the 30th pick in the draft would come with Miles. Portland could make out like bandits in terms of cap room if they sent Blake’s meager contract out with Miles in exchange for Mihm, McKie, and possibly Cook. They would be looking at more than $20m in cap space after next season. This move would put Smush Parker on the bnech. LA would have a very athletic lineup. While Miles is a bit of a slouch defensively, when motivated, he is an explosive shotblocker. Blake is one of the better PG defenders in the NBA, and Kwame and Kobe make two more solid defenders. LA would lose absolutely nothing in terms of scoring punch, but would gain a fair amount in terms of defense from this season’s roster.
Recommendation: Trade with Portland. Send Mihm, McKie and LA’s second round pick for Miles and the 30th pick. Gray will definitely be available at 30th. It wouldn’t hurt LA as much if they had to get rid of Cook in the deal if they can restock at PF.

Proposed Depth Chart
PG Marcus Banks, Smush Parker, Mardy Collins (#26)
SG Kobe Bryant, Sasha Vujacic, Linton Johnson
SF Darius Miles, Luke Walton, Toni Kukoc
PF Lamar Odom, Ronnie Turiaf, Taj Gray (#30)
C Kwame Brown, Andrew Bynum, Jarron Collins

Outlook
Barring significant injuries, one would expect LA to improve slightly, even if they make no moves. They were the youngest team to make the playoffs, but Houston (for instance) will not likely be as hampered by injuries next year so competition should be fiercer. I would say that LA should make the playoffs, perhaps as the 5th or 6th seed, at around 48 wins. If LA were to make the moves I’ve suggested, they should be a team that could at least weather some injuries. With the blessing of health, the team should easily make it into the 50-win area, second round of the playoffs. Experience is going to be key. I don’t think LA has enough to make a legitimate run at a championship, but when Kobe is on your team, you always have some chance. That team would be loaded for years to come. Also, Banks, Collins on the bench would improve the defensive look of the team. Johnson would give LA yet another shooter from the outside (hit 36% of his 3pt attempts last season), and LA would only be a bit light on depth. Adding Kukoc for the Vet Minimum would round out the squad nicely.