Underrated/Overrated According to RAPM

Underrated/Overrated According to RAPM

Postby thkthebest on Mon Aug 19, 2013 1:24 pm

It's a pretty cool read. This article (2 pages) compared RAPM according to PER and WS/48 to see who is underrated/overrated.

Everyone knows what PER is. It basically quantifies the the per-minute productivity of the player using box score stats. WS/48 tries to calculate how much a player contributed to the team's total number of wins.

Instead of using your box score stats (before it changed to something else), RAPM uses your +/- stats, adjusts it according to your teammates and opponents, and "regularizes" it.

Anyway, according to RAPM when compared to PER, Kobe and Nash are two underrated offensive players from 2001 to 2012. Baron Davis is also up there. If you compare it to WS/48, names like Pierce and Mike Conley come up. Shaq's impact is also somehow underrated. Lol. When you look at the most overrated offensive players, names like Bynum, Gortat, and Rondo come up. The author was surprised to see Rondo's name come up. Lol.

In terms of overall impact (both offense/defense), Garnett, Rasheed, Ben Wallace, Battier, Artest, Sefolosha, Deng, and Conley, Bowen are underrated. What do they all share? Defense. Box score stats or PER fail to quantify defense, and these players end up being underrated because of that.

Meanwhile, Durant, Al Jefferson, Gooden, Brook Lopez, Boozer, and even Bynum are overrated.

On defense, Bogut, Haywood, and even Nick Young are shown as underrated.

This is obviously not perfect. Durant wasn't that good when he came into the league. He was awesome this past season, but I think since this takes the average of 2001-2012 (did not take into consideration his most recent season), he came out as being overrated. Anyway, interesting read. :)
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Re: Underrated/Overrated According to RAPM

Postby Rooscooter on Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:06 pm

Interesting.... But like you noted it moves players that are very valuable into the overrated slot.....which is where this stat belongs.... :man10:

Situational play can not be quantified by this stat and guys like Durant and Rondo rise under pressure.....
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Re: Underrated/Overrated According to RAPM

Postby abeer3 on Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:58 am

of all the "advanced" stats, I tend to like the theory behind RAPM the best. but as roo said, it's still fairly incomplete.

plus, under/overrated is always super complicated by the chosen comparison standard. here, they choose another stat that has been championed by media morons (PER), which I like. but again, what does it mean to be "rated". how does one measure public perception? kobe's had ten years or articles calling him overrated by "stat guys" (I use that term so incredibly loosely here that it hurts)...does that mean he's now underrated in general?

shawn marion went from under to over back to under rated in about a 4 year span. mostly because general opinion fluctuates for silly reasons (usually volume of voice of a given proponent rather than logical argument--a trick henry abbott knows all too well).
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Re: Underrated/Overrated According to RAPM

Postby revgen on Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:28 pm

We need to show this RAPM data to Danny Ainge right now and trade Pau for Rondo.
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Re: Underrated/Overrated According to RAPM

Postby Rooscooter on Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:46 pm

^^oh man..... where would I start with my undying support for that idea..... :man10:
"If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill

“The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present - and is gravely to be regarded." Dwight Eisenhower

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