by fromwaydowntown on Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:02 pm
The US is clearly the favorite, there is no doubt in my mind about it. The thing is these two teams would only meet again in the final game, should they both qualify. Aito Garcia Reneses, Spain's coach, and one of the best coaches in the world ( I asume 99.99% of Americans don't know who he is) is not obsesed with winning this game. He will try, but will certainly not force the machine.
The keys of the game:
- Turnovers. The US has lived off turnovers forced to oponents, so it will be crucial to keep this number down. Calderon will have to prove he is one of the best in the low TO department.
- Concentration. All oponents seem to not be able to keep the intensity, especially on defense, during the whole game. It is important for spain to be in the game not to "let go" should the US get a quick 10 point advantage. If they do the game is over.
- Fouls. Howard and Bosh are very important to this team. Get them loaded and the lane may open up for Spain. Bosh has really surprised me as he has been very dominant and has played very seriously. Fouls on Pau will also be crucial, as he will be the main reference on ofense in this game. The good thing is that in two of the three games he has played just over 20 minutes and in the first game he did not even start.
- Officiating. Even though the US is heads above the rest, they have also been clearly favored by the refs, getting away with a good share of no calls in reach-in fouls and travellings (when the players initiates the motion) in every game since the preparation games. I don't think this game will be an exception.
I say the final score will be the US by 10/15 points with a possibility of upset of 15%.